STUDY ON ACTIVITY BASED TRAVEL

DEMAND MODEL
GUIDED BY,
Ms. CAROL VARGHESE PRESENTED BY,
ANUPAMA KRISHNAN
ASSISTANT PROFESSOR JEC18CETE03
CIVIL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT S3,TE

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• Travel demand modeling aims to establish the spatial
distribution of travel explicitly by means of an
appropriate system of zones.
• Modeling of demand thus implies a procedure for
predicting what travel decisions people would like to
make given the generalized travel cost of each
alternatives.
• The base decisions include the choice of destination, the
choice of the mode, and the choice of the route.

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• There are mainly 2 travel demand modeling approaches:

i. Traditional four-step travel demand model (FSM) that is

being used by the majority of transportation planning
agencies

ii. Activity-based model, which simulates individual and

household activities at much more detailed levels.

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 WHAT IS A TRAVEL MODEL?

• A travel model is an analysis tool that provides a

systematic framework for representing how travel
demand changes in response to different input
assumptions.

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• To support decision making by providing information
about the impacts of alternative transportation and land
use investments and policies, as well as demographic and
economic trends.

• It produce quantitative information about travel demand

and transportation system performance that can be used
to evaluate alternatives and make informed decisions.

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 DEMAND MODEL AND SUPPLY MODEL

• Travel demand model may estimate the demand for

travel by regional residents, the demand for travel for
commercial purposes or the demand to travel for special
purpose or destination such as special events or airports.

• Supply models predict the performance of the

transportation system, given a set of input travel
demand.

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 TWO APPROACHES TO DEMAND MODEL

• The two approaches to demand model are :

– The Trip-Based Approach
– The Activity-Based Approach

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 TWO APPROACHES TO DEMAND MODEL
(Contd. )
 The Trip-Based Approach

• The trip based approach uses individual trips as the unit

of analysis and usually includes four sequential steps

• Fundamental conceptual problem with the trip-based

approach:
– is the use of trips as the unit of analysis. Separate models
are developed for home-based trips and non home based
trips, without consideration of dependence among such
trips.
– Further, the scheduling of trips is not considered
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 TWO APPROACHES TO DEMAND MODEL
(Contd. )

– That is the organization of trips and the resulting

inter-relationship in the attributes of multiple trips is
ignored in all steps of the trip-based method.

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 TWO APPROACHES TO DEMAND MODEL
(Contd. )
The Activity-Based Approach
• The activity-based approach to travel demand analysis
views travel as a derived demand.

• This approach originates from the realization that the

need and desire to participate in activities is more basic
than the travel that some of these participations may
entail

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BASIC COMPONENT OF ACTIVITY MODEL

• Socio demographics and time use profiles

• Household member’s activity allocators
• Activity & travel equations
• Spatio-temporal models of supply
• Residence-workplace relocation and time use
• Telecommunications-information and time use
• Lifecycle-lifestyle changes and time use
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• Seasonal and day-of-the-week time use profiles
• Long-term trends in time use

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 IMPORTANT FEATURES OF THE ACTIVITY
BASED APPROACH
• Travel is derived from the need to change the location
between two successive activities.

• Individual schedule their own activities in co-ordination

with the members of household or of their social
network.

• Individual are the constraints in their scheduling because

of the resources available to them in particular vehicle.

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 IMPORTANT FEATURES OF THE ACTIVITY
BASED APPROACH (Contd. )
• Individual are the constraints because of their longer
term commitments to their household members, to their
resident location and to their work place.

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MODELING METHODS IN ACTIVITY BASED
TRAVEL MODELS

• Discrete Choice Models

• Hazard Duration Models

• Structural Equation Models

• Rule Based Simulation Models

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 Discrete Choice Models
• Discrete choice models are probabilistic, i.e. they yield
the probability of choosing an alternative from the
choice set

• Ben-Akiva and Bowman (1995) developed a model in

which they considered the daily activity-travel pattern as
a set of tours

• Each tour was assumed to have a primary activity and

destination

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 Discrete Choice Models (Contd. )

• Tours were sub-divided into primary and secondary

tours.

• The daily activity-travel pattern was characterized by the

primary activity, primary tour type, the number and
purpose of secondary tours.

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 Discrete Choice Models (Contd. )

• Bowman (1998) developed the Portland model.

• In this model, the trade-offs among patterns that include

at-home and on-tour activities, multiple tours and trip

chaining could be captured.

• There were basically three types of results derived from

the application of Portland model:

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 Discrete Choice Models (Contd. )
I. The basic output of the model was an activity pattern
for each individual in the population.
II. Predicting activity patterns for each individual in the
population allowed a flexible aggregation of results for
policy analysis
III. The individual activity patterns could be aggregated on
the zonal level, which produced origin-destination trip
matrices

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 Hazard Duration Models

• Hazard-based duration models have been applied to

travel demand modeling since 1980’s.

• The general idea of a hazard-based duration model was

that it tried to model the conditional probability of
“failure” at time t, given that failure had not occurred
prior to this time.

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 Hazard Duration Models (Contd. )

• Application of the hazard-based duration in activity-

based travel demand modeling:

– is in connection with modeling the activities and

home-stay duration

– Another use of hazard-based duration models is

modeling the time until the next particular activity
occurs.

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 Hazard Duration Models (Contd. )

• Mannering et al (1992) applied hazard-based duration

models to model the length of time a traveler spent at
home before making another trip

• Ettema et al (1995) used a “competing risk” hazard

model to deal with both activity duration and activity
choice.

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 Structural Equation Models

• Golob and McNally (1995) developed a joint model of the out-

of-home activity participation and the travel of couples in a
household.
• Lu and Pas (1999) developed and interpreted a structural
equation model relating socio-demographics, activity
participation and travel behavior, in which a complex set of
interrelationships among the variables were estimated
simultaneously.

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 Rule Based Simulation Models
• There were two main groups of these models, i.e. activity
schedule building models and switching models (Jovicic,
2001).

• The difference between the two approaches was that

the building models constructed an activity schedule
from scratch while the switching models altered the
predefined schedule as a result of proposed changes

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 APPLICATIONS OF ACTIVITY-BASED
TRAVEL MODELS
• In-Home and Out-of-Home Activity Substitution

• Interpersonal Dependencies

• Daily Activity-Travel Patterns

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 In-Home and Out-of-Home Activity
Substitution

• The tradeoffs and relationships of in-home and out-of-

home activity is important

• In home/out-of-home participation has an impact on the

generation of trips

• Those who work more hours per week tended to spend

more discretionary time out-of-home

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 In-Home and Out-of-Home Activity
Substitution (Contd.)
• The factors of child caring, size of the family strongly
affected the in-home/out-of home allocation, while
income and number of vehicles and flexible work hours
did not significantly influence the tradeoffs between in-
home and out-of-home activities.

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 Interpersonal Dependencies
• Srinvivasan and Reddy (2005) examined maintenance
activity allocation and participation of household members.

• They modeled whether an activity is pursued alone or

jointly with another household member, and the specific
person in the household who pursued the activity.

• Their analysis suggested that household life-cycle variables

such as household role, gender, income, auto availability,
working status, and presence/absence of children played a
major role in determining joint and solo activity
participation in maintenance activity. 28
 Daily Activity-Travel Patterns
• Wen (1998) developed an operational econometric
model system for generating complex daily activity
patterns.

• This model dealt with not only stop and tour generation
and the assignment of stops to tours, but also the
location for each stop and the mode for each tour.

• He also incorporated interpersonal dependencies in the

model system.

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 Daily Activity-Travel Patterns (Contd.)

• Lee et al (2007) applied simultaneous doubly-censored

Tobit modes to model time use behavior within the
context of household activity participation

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 CASE STUDY
Case study 1: Activity Based Transportation Modeling
for Chelakottukara ward of Thrissur District
• Activity tour generation model was developed on six
different aspects using activity-based approach.

• The multinomial logit model was used as the modeling

tool.

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 CASE STUDY (Contd. )
• The activity tour chains considered in the model were
home-based work tours, home-based educational tours,
home-based shopping tours, home-based other tours,
home-based complex work tours and home-based
complex other tours.
• This model was developed to predict the score of each
activity
• Using multinomial logit model, the probability of each
activity was calculated
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 CASE STUDY (Contd. )

Case study 2: TRIP GENERATION MODEL FOR THE CORE

AREA OF THIRUVANANTHAPURAM CITY

• They developed a home-based trip generation model to

examine the factors influencing the trip generation rate
in the study area.
• A mathematical model is developed and validated.
• It has been found that trip production is a function of
age group and employment rate while trip attraction is
influenced by number of commercial establishments and
employment opportunities of the zone
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 SUMMARY

• Activity based travel demand models predict travel

behaviour as a derivative of activities.
• By predicting which activities are performed at particular
destinations and times, trips and their timing and
locations are implicitly forecasted in activity based
models.
• Activity based models belong to the third generation of
travel demand models

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 SUMMARY (Contd. )

• The activity based approach to travel demand modeling

gives a rich and accurate framework in which travel is
analysed as a daily pattern of behaviour related to and
derived from differences in lifestyles and activity
participation among individuals.
• The travel consequences of policies such as road pricing
and telecommuting can be modeled adequately only by
the activity based travel demand models

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 REFERENCES
1. A. L. Hedau and S. Sanghai, “Development of trip generation model using
activity based approach,”International Journal of Civil, Structural,
Environmental and Infrastructure Engineering Research and
Development, vol. 4, no. 3, pp.61–78, 2014
2. S. Navya, S. Kumar, and G. Kattoor, “Trip generation model for the core
area of thiruvananthapuram city,” International Journal of Innovative
Research in Science, Engineering and Technology, vol. 2, 2013.
3. V. R. Patel, H. Varia, and G. Rajpara, “Development of regional industrial
trip generation model,” Indian journal of science and technology,
Vol.11(7),pp.1-9 ,2018
4. Midhun T, Anitha Jacob, “ Activity Based Transportation Modeling for
Chelakottukara ward of Thrissur District”, International Journal of
Engineering and Advanced Technology (IJEAT), Volume-8(4C), December
2018 .

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 REFERENCES Contd. . . .
5. Zhaoming Chu and Lin Cheng, “A Review of Activity-Based Travel Demand
Modeling”, The Twelfth COTA International Conference of Transportation
Professionals
6. Handbook of Transportation Science edited by Randolph W Hall,
published by Spinger Science, Second edition.

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