2. Wave bending moment.

The random variable Bivw follows a Gumbel distribution:

where E(BIIvw) = approximational uncertainties, taken as unity in this numerical application.

N = number of cycles over the period of time considered, taken as 108 cycles.

VBI = coefficient of variation of the statistical uncertainties.

VBII = coefficient of variation of the approximational uncertainties.

Mmax = maximum bending moment calculated according to Söding rule.

Mvw,1 = wave bending moment calculated according to equation (5.4.21).
 The mean value and coefficient of variation of the random variable X3 are

where VBIvw is given by equation (5.4.19)

3. Slamming bending moment. Taking into account the type of ships considered (tankers and
bulk carriers), the influence of the slamming bending moment can be disregarded for the
following two reasons :
a. In the sagging condition , that is, for laden conditions, there is no risk of slamming.
b. In the hogging condition, that is, for ballast conditions, the forward draught is generally
increased to avoid occurrence of slams; moreover, the slamming bending moment,
which is a sagging moment,reduces the total bending moment.
4. Yield stress. The mean value and coefficient of variation of the yield stress (refer to
Section 5.4.4) are given by
(the yield stress is assumed to follow a lognormal distribution)
VσY = 0.08
5. Ultimate bending moment. Mean values of the ultimate bending moments (refer to
Appendix 5-E) are calculated for the mean value E(σY) of the yield stress and taken from
Beghin, Jastrzebski, and Taczala (1998). The ultimate bending moment Mu is assumed to
follow a normal distribution and its coefficient of variation taken as 0.125.
INITIAL YIELDING

As the safety margin is a linear function of the ran dom variables (refer to Section 5.5.1), the Cornell and
Hasofer-Lind safety indices are equal and calculated according to equation (5.5.5). The partial safety
factors are calculated according to equations (5.5.7) to (5.5.9). The design equation expressed in terms of
the partial safety factors is given by equation (5.5.10)

Table 5.15 summarizes the results of calculations carried out accordingly for seven tankers and
five bulk carriers, whose main particulars are given in Appendix 5-E. Ships considered for this analysis
comply strictly with the IACS requirements and the design SWBM is equal to the permissible bending
moments as given by equations (5.5.1) and (5.5.2). From these partial results the design section modulus
of oil tankers expressed in terms of PSF would be
Hogging :

Sagging :

Or

Note: These PSF are quite different from those obtained by Mansour et al (2001) for r =
(Mvw,0/Msw,0) = 1.67 :

or
In addition, for ships subjected to high risk of corrosion, it may be necessary to take into account the
degradation with time of the cross-sectional properties. For example, the safety margin with respect
to initial yielding of the hull girder, as given by equation (5.5.3), becomes

where Z(t)is a time-dependent random variable.

As proposed by Wirsching, Ferensic, and Thayamballi (1997), the safety index β is calculated from
equation (5.5.3) for various values of time t = T, assuming that the wave-induced bending moment
follows an extreme value distribution, whose mean value and standard deviation are calculated
according to equations (5.4.17) and (5.4.18) with N = 1/T. The probability of failure at time T may be
approximated by 𝑃 𝑓 𝑇 = Φ(−𝛽) and the probability of failure for the ship’s lifetime is

where P(f|t)= conditional probability of failure at a random time T, calculated by considering that the
extreme wave bending moment occurs at time T.
T
s = ship’s lifetime.
ULTIMATE STRENGTH

Calculat ions of the safety index are performed for the same ships as for initial yielding and
according to the same procedure. If we assume that oil tankers and bulk carriers spend half of
their lifetime in a sagging condition, when fully laden, and half in hogging condition, when in
ballast, the resulting probability of failure is

and the corresponding safety index is 𝛽 = −Φ−1 [(P)Mean] Table 5.17 summarizes the results of
calculations.
5.6.2 Reliability of Horizontal Stiffeners of
Cargo Tank Transverse Bulkheads
INITIAL YIELDING
Keeping the notations of Section 5.5.3, the safety margin with respect to initial yielding of laterally
loaded horizontal stiffeners of cargo tank transverse bulkheads is

where σY ,Bpst and Bpw are random variables assumed to be independent. Bpst and Bpw measure the
uncer tainties in the static and wave-induced pressures.
𝜏
Assuming that the reduction factor λ 1 − 3(𝜎𝑦)2 may be considered as a deterministic variable given
by
the safety margin is a linear function of the random variables, expressed as

where m = 12 for stiffeners fixed at both ends.

Xi’s = random variables.
X 1 = σ Y.
X2 = Bpst.
X3 = Bpw .
Since the limit state function expressed by equation (5.5.14) is linear, the safety index is given by

Based on the definitions of Table 5.12, the yielding limit state of transverse bulkhead stiffeners may
be considered as a severe serviceability limit state, which according to Table 5.15, gives a target
reliability safety index β0 of 4.1. The partial safety factors are given by equations (5.5.7) to (5.5.8), and
the design equation expressed in terms of the PSF is
or, in a more conventional form,

Another simplified approach consists in determining the “first-order second-moment reliability

index” as given by equation (5.3.25) for uncorrelated random variables Xi’s. Introducing equation
(5.5.13) in (5.5.12) gives

Or
The first-order second-moment reliability index is

Where
NUMERICAL APPLICATION
Calculations are performed for the upper, midheight, and lower stiffeners of a cargo/ballast tank
transverse bulkhead of a VLCC assumed to be fixed at their both ends. The safety margin is given by
equation (5.5.16).
1. Static pressures are assumed to follow a normal distribution. Calculations are carried out
for full tanks. Since the filling ratio of cargo or ballast tanks is easily monitored the mean
value and coefficient of variation of static pressures are taken as
Mean value = design value.
Covariance = 0.05.
2. Wave-induced pressures are assumed to follow a Gumbel distribution. Their mean value
and covariance are given by
where E(BIIw) = approximational uncertainties, taken as unity in this numerical application.
N = number of cycles over the period of time considered, taken as108 cycles.
ξ = 1.4 − 0.044 α0.8 L (refer to ABS 2002 5-1-1/5-5, α =0.8 for transverse bulkheads).
VBI = coefficient of variation of the statistical uncertainties taken as

VBII = coefficient of variation of the approximational uncertainties, taken as 0.10.

The mean value and coefficient of variation of the random variable X3 are
3. Yield stress. The yield stress is assumed to fol low a lognormal distribution and its mean
value and coefficient of variation are taken as

Table 5.18 summarizes the results of these calculations. The following conclusions can be
drawn from this analysis:
1. Upper stiffeners have a level of safety less than that of lower stiffeners,
although their scantlings are based on the same requirements. This is due,
obviously, to the uncertainties in the wave-induced pressure that have a larger
influence on the probability of failure for the upper stiffeners.
2. This calculation shows how a reliability analysis may be used to “put the
material at the right place.”

where
ULTIMATE STRENGTH
Keeping notations of Section 5.5.3, the safety margin with respect to ultimate strength of laterally
loaded horizontal stiffeners fixed at both ends of cargo tank transverse bulkheads is

where σY, Zpe, Bpst, and Bpw are random variables assumed to be independent.
Assuming that the plastic section modulus Zpe is a deterministic variable given by

the safety margin is a linear function of the random variables expressed as

Table 5.19 summarizes the results of the calcula tions carried out for stiffeners whose scantlings are
defined in Table 5.18.