Chapter 6

Sample size estimation

 Five key factors
• Confidence level: how certain you want to be that the population
figure is within the sample estimate and its associated precision.

• Variability in the population: the standard deviation is the most

usual measure and often needs to be estimated.

• Margin of error or precision: a measure of the possible difference

between the sample estimate and the actual population value.

• The population proportion: the proportion of items in the population

displaying the attributes that you are seeking.

• Population size: only important if the sample size is greater than 5%

of the population in which case the sample size reduces.
 Sample size determination
• How many subjects are needed in the sample
to enable draw conclusion on the whole
population?
– Depends on expected variation in the data and
number of units per cell for analysis
– The eventual sample size is a compromise (trade-
off) between what is desirable and what is feasible
 Sample size cont…
• Minimum sample size can be calculated
depending on the objective of the study
– Estimation of population parameter with certain
precision
• Single variable estimation (single population mean,
proportion or rate)
• Descriptive studies - Prevalence, coverage and utilization
rate studies
– Test of significant difference between groups
• Analytic studies - comparative cross-sectional, case-
control, cohort and clinical trials
 Sample size - single proportion
• For making confidence limit statement (such as
prevalence study), the following formula can be used to
estimate minimum sample size:
2
 Z  P 1  P 

n  2 

d2
• For population <10,000, use finite population correction
2
N  Z   P1  P 
nf   2
2
d  N  1   Z   P1  P 
2
 2
 Single proportion cont…
• Parameters in the formula
– n is minimum sample size
– P is estimate of the prevalence rate for the population
• From available data, or Pilot study result, or 0.5 should be
used to get the possible minimum large sample size; if given
in range, take the value closest to 0.5.
– d is the margin of sampling error tolerated
– Z1-α/2 is the standard normal variable at (1-α )% confidence level
and α is mostly taken to be 5%
• Usually 95% confidence level is used = 1.96
– N population size
Example
Five years ago a survey showed that 42% of
consumers were aware of the company’s brand
(Consumers were either “aware” or “not aware”)
After an intense ad campaign, management will
conduct another survey. They want to be 95%
confident (95 chances in 100) that the survey
estimate will be within + 5% of the true share of
“aware” consumers in the population.
What is n?
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Z=1.96 (95% confidence)

p=42% (p, q and e must be in the same units)

q=100% - p%=58%

e= + 5%

What is n?=3.84(.58*.42) =374

0.25

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if we use a sample size of 374, after the survey,
we can say the following is the results:
(Assume results show that 55% are aware)
“Our most likely estimate of the percentage of
consumers that are “aware” of our brand name
is 55%. In addition, we are 95% confident that
the true share of “aware” customers in the
population falls between 52.25% and 57.75%.”
Note that: ( + .05 x 55% = + 2.75%) !!!!

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 Exercise
• What sample size do we need to estimate the
prevalence of HIV among residents of a town such
that the error of estimation is within 5% of its actual
parameter with 95% confidence?
 Sample size- Single mean
• The approach used is SE
• The required (minimum) sample size for a large
population is given by

𝒁𝜶/𝟐 𝟐 𝝈𝟐
𝒏=
𝒆𝟐
e - required size of standard error
𝜎 standard deviation

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EXAMPLE
A health officer wishes to estimate mean
hemoglobin level in a defined community .From
preliminary contact he thinks this mean is about
150mg/l with a standard deviation of 32mg/ml.if he
is willing to tolerate a sampling error up to 5mg/l in
his estimate how many subjects should be included

in his study?( =5%,two sided)

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 Given Z =1.96
s.d=32 m/l
e=5 mg/l
Required =n ?
Formula =n=Z2  2/w2
Solution n=(1.96)2(32)2/52
=~ 158 persons

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