Disaster Readiness

and Risk Reduction

 Chapter 3
Basic Concept of Hazard
 Learning Objectives
• To describe how hazard affects risk
• To distinguish hazard from the other
components of disaster risk
• To distinguish natural hazards from the other
types of hazard
• To explain the difference in characteristics of
small and large hazard events
• To determine the steps in hazard assessment
 Section 3.1
Hazards and Hazard Types
 What Is a Hazard?
 Hazards are the potentials for damage to man and
his environment that may result from the
occurrence of natural events such as volcanic
eruptions, earthquakes, floods, and storm
surges.
 An event per se does not constitute a hazard. It is
only when man and his environment are
threatened that these events can be considered
hazards.
 The probabilities of occurrence of hazard events
may be estimated.
 Activity 1

OBJECTIVE: This activity will allow the students to

recognize what situations constitute hazards and which
ones qualify as disasters.
Types of Hazard
 Section Assessment
1. Determine every possible geologic, hydrologic,
atmospheric, biologic, and man-made hazard which
may affect the following:
a) school
b) House
Explain the inclusion of each.
2. Which of your choices above can more likely cause
disaster? Explain why.
3. How can the possibility of disasters in your home
and school be minimized?
 Section 3.2
Characteristics Of Hazard
 Important Aspects of Hazards

• Magnitude and intensity

 Magnitude of the event is a measure of its

strength and is an indication of how
destructive it can be.
 Intensity is a measure on the impacts on the
ground, on people, and on structures.
 Important Aspects of Hazards

• Speed of onset

 Among the most important aspects of hazards

 How predictable a hazard is and how much
lead time is allowed by it, is critical in
determining how damaging it will be.
 The more predictable an event is, the lesser
the chance of incurring casualties and
damages.
 Important Aspects of Hazards

• Duration

 Duration becomes a concern as the chance of

experiencing severe damage will depend on
how long the hazard affects an area.
 In the same manner, the larger the aerial extent
or scope of an event is, the greater the
potential for damage will be.
 The Occurrence of an Event

 Frequency refers to how often an event occurs.

 Sometimes frequency is expressed in terms of

return period.

 Another way of describing the timing of a hazard

is by estimating its probability of occurrence.
 Section Assessment
1. Why is it important to use parameters to
characterize hazard events of the same type?
2. What measure of size or strength is used for each of
the following:
a) Earthquake
b) Tsunami
c) Volcanic eruption
d) Typhoon
e) Fire
3. How valuable are historical records dating back to
the Spanish times in gathering information about
earthquakes? Where can you find these records?
4. Explain how historical accounts help in estimating
the probability of occurrence of earthquakes.
 Section 3.3
Hazard Identification,
Assessment, and Mapping
 Hazard Assessment

“Hazard Assessment is the process of

estimating, for defined areas, the probabilities
of the occurrence of potentially damaging
phenomenon of given magnitude within a
specified period of time”. - UNDRO
 Hazard Assessment
Vs. Risk Assessment

 Risk Assessment involves both the assessment

of hazards from a scientific point of view and
the socioeconomic impacts of a hazardous
event.

 Thus, without hazard assessment, no risk

assessment can be complete.
 Some Methods to Assess
Natural Hazards

• Quantitative Approach
Mathematical functions or equations
relating the hazard variables used are formulated
or adopted to quantify the hazard. Data from past
historical records and from those derived from
basic science principles are used to come up with
the relationship between the variables considered.
 Some Methods to Assess
Natural Hazards

• Qualitative Approach
Instead of representing with numbers, this
method uses expert opinion in ranking in relative
terms the intensity or probability of occurrence of
a hazard event. This method is preferred
especially when data is not enough to come up
with a quantitative evaluation or when it is not
possible to express numerically one or more
variables.
 Some Methods to Assess
Natural Hazards
• Probabilistic Approach
It provides an objective estimate of the
probability of each hazard affecting an area or
region by considering past record of events.
Probability of occurrence of rainfall of a given
intensity can be estimated, for example, by
ranking past rainfalls and applying the appropriate
statistical method of analysis. For earthquakes,
probabilistic ground motion maps combine the
likely ground shaking caused by earthquakes
from all nearby earthquake generators over a
specified time period.
 Some Methods to Assess
Natural Hazards

• Deterministic Approach
This is a more subjective approach of
estimating probability. A past event of a given
intensity or magnitude is selected and the
consequences at certain intensities are described.
The use of deterministic hazard assessment
avoids the under-estimation of hazard at a site.
 Hazard Mapping
 Hazard mapping is the process of identifying the
spatial variation of hazard events or physical
conditions (e.g., potential ground shaking, steep
slopes, flood plains, and hazardous materials
sites).
 Through this process, one side of the hazard-
exposure-vulnerability risk triangle may be
displayed in hazard maps.
 Hazard maps are indispensable for information
and education campaigns to hazards scientists,
and to land use planners.
 Hazard maps are quite useful in communicating
vital information about the spatial variation of size
and potential intensity of a particular hazard.
GIS: A Powerful Hazard
Mapping Tool
Multiple Hazard Maps (MHM)
 Activity 2

OBJECTIVE: This activity will allow the students to be

acquainted with hazard, exposure, and vulnerability
assessment activities that their community is doing
and how the information from these are being shared
with others.
 Section Assessment

1. What are the advantages and disadvantages of

using the various methods of hazard assessment?
2. Explain how GIS is used in the various stages of
hazard and risk evaluation. Is it merely a tool to
display information?
3. What various expertise are required to come up with
final quantitative disaster risk estimates? Does it
involve only earth scientists and engineers?