Vulnerability and

Risk
GROUP VI 12-GAS
Before we start,
let’s play a
game!
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3
 _______
______
VOLPUQE
NIERLOA
A G B I L I TY
4
 __ __ __ __

SDRAOK
IENRKLA

5
 ________

ELIMTSG
PONEEXC

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 LEARNING
GOALS LEARNING OBJECTIVES
OUTCOMES • As you work through this session you will learn to
distinguish between the concepts
• To instill an • After completing • of vulnerability
understanding of this session, you • List and describe criteria that add to the
the concepts of will be able to vulnerability of a community
• List and describe criteria that reduce the
vulnerability and perform a risk vulnerability
risk assessment for a • Name and explain the components in
• To develop the selected quantification
• Give a breakdown of elements at risk
capability for risk community. • Construct a risk matrix
assessment • Explain risk as a function of hazard, loss and
preparedness
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 1.

▧
VULNERA
“
DEFINITION
BILITY

The predisposition to suffer damage due to external

events
▧ A set of prevailing and consequential conditions -
physical, social, and attitudinal - which adversely affect
the community's ability to prevent, mitigate, prepare and
respond to the impact of a hazard event. The
predisposition to suffer damage
8 due to external events. -
 DEFINITION

▧ This definition is more focused on

communities.
▧ Vulnerability is a condition or a predisposition.
It applies to individuals, groups of individuals or
communities, but it can be also used when
referring to physical structures or the
environment in general.

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 Vulnerability is about SUSCEPTIBILITY and RESILIENCE
under threat of a hazard event.

▧ SUSCEPTIBILIT RESILIENCE
▧
Y Access to resources
Proximity and and capacities which
exposure to an determine the ability
event. It is the to recover from the
potential to incur impacts of to a
harm or avoid hazard event.
loss. 10
 1.1.1.

SUSCEPTI
“
DEFINITION
BILITY

▧ It is the fact of being exposed.

▧ You can be susceptible but not vulnerable.
E.g. a landslide is threatening a house but
the owners have built wall to protect it and to
divert the landslide. Susceptibility is the easy
to assess.
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 1.1.1.

EXPO
“
DEFINITION
SURE

▧ It is the state of being physically affected

from a hazard

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 1.1.2.

RESI
“
DEFINITION
LIENCE

▧ It is the ability to adjust and recover.

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 1.1.2.

CAPA
“
DEFINITION
CITY

▧ Those positive conditions or recourses which

increase the ability of a community to deal
with hazards.

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CAPACITY MAY HAVE…
▧ Physical
▧ Social/Organizational
▧ Attitudinal/Motivational components.
If susceptibility is very low and resilience very high, one has minimum
vulnerability.
▧ E.g. take a displaced population in an emergency settlement.
Susceptibility to measles is very high. If all children are immunized
however, resilience is high, and the vulnerability would be low.
When Susceptibility is high and resilience very low, one has
maximum vulnerability. If the children are not immunized, resilience is
very low and the vulnerability is high.
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 1.1.2.

CAPA
“
DEFINITION
CITY

▧ Capacity is also reflected in the

preparedness of the community to face a
hazard event.

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 1.1.2.

PREPARED
“
DEFINITION
NESS

▧ Measures taken in anticipation of a disaster

to ensure that appropriate and effective
actions are taken in the aftermath of a
hazard event.
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 1.1.2.

RES
“
DEFINITION
PONSE

▧ Refer to actions taken immediately following

the impact of a hazard event when
exceptional measures are required to meet
the basic needs of the survivors.
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 1.1.2.

RES
“
DEFINITION
PONSE
▧ It refers to the sum of all actions taken to adjust to
hazards; more narrowly defined to mean the
appropriate actions taken during an emergency to
protect people and the things they value from
harm, rescue them, and facilitate the transition to
post-disaster recovery.
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 1.2.

SOCIO- ECONO
“ MIC INDICATORS
DEFINITION

▧ Socio-economic indicators provide another

dimension to view Vulnerability.

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The Indicator of Human Development (IHD) is synthesized by
combining other indicators and gathers together
▧ The adjusted GDP per capita
▧ Life expectancy
▧ Adult literacy

The assumption is that the lower the IHD, the lower will
be the mean wealth, the literacy and the average health
state of the population. This will increase the vulnerability
to physical hazards.
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 1.2.

SOCIO- ECONO
“ MIC INDICATORS
DEFINITION
▧ Poverty is one of the major vulnerability
criteria. Poverty also has an effect on
housing which constitute a usually high
damage percentage in case of disaster.
(Center for Research on the Epidemiology of
Disasters,
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CRED).
 1.2.

DEMOGRAPHIC
“
DEFINITION
INDICATORS
▧ When high to very high population densities
(>200 hab/km2) are combined with
unfavorable socio-economic parameters (low
IDH, high birth and mortality rates), the
vulnerability is expected to be high (CRED).
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 2. RISK
2.2 D E F I N I T I O N
“Risk is the likelihood or probability of a hazard event of a certain
magnitude occurring. Risks are measures of the threat of hazards”. -
ADPC
“Risk is the actual exposure of something of
human value to a hazard. Often regarded as the product of probability
and loss”
“Risk is the-ADPC
exposure or the chance of loss due to a particular hazard
for a given area and reference period. It may be expressed
mathematically as the probability that a hazard impact will occur
multiplied by the consequences of that impact”- ADPC
(NOTE: DEFINITIONS OF RISK IN THE HAZARDS LITERATURE VARY FROM THOSE THAT EQUATE RISK WITH PROBABILITY TO
THOSE THAT SEE RISK AS THE PRODUCT OF A PROBABILITY AND A PARTICULAR KIND OF IMPACT OCCURRING.)

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 2.1

“
▧ RISK and HAZARD are two concepts that
are DIFFERENT from each other.

How?

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 2.1

▧ “
The ocean is a hazard (deep water and large waves). If one
attempts to cross the ocean in a small rowboat, a great risk
(probability of capsizing and drowning) is incurred. If the crossing is
made aboard the Queen Elizabeth, (a large passenger ship) the risk
is reduced - all else being equal. The ocean-going vessel is a
device used as a safeguard against the hazard.
▧ In general, risk may be diminished by increasing safeguards but
never eliminated unless the hazard itself is removed.

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 1.2.

CONSE
“
DEFINITION
QUENCE

▧ The monetary and non-monetary "costs" or

"losses” of a hazard event. This is financial,
economic, life safety, environmental, social,
legal and other costs or losses. Its assessment
may be made easier if the elements at risk are
enumerated first.
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ELEMENTS AT RISK
Physical
Infrastructure, Roads, Railway,
Bridges, Harbor, Airport
Critical Facilities
Emergency shelters, Schools,
Hospitals and Nursing Homes, Fire
Brigades, Police, Utilities (Power
supply & Water supply), Transport,
Communication, Government
services
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Economic
Business and trade activities,
Access to work
Impact on work force
Opportunity cost
Societal
Vulnerable age categories, Low
income group people, Gender
Environmental
Loss of biodiversity, Damaged
Landscape, Physical and Chemical
changes in the surroundings
2.2. QUANTIFICATION OF RISK
There are three essential components to the quantification of
risk after identification of local hazards:
▧ Hazard occurrence probability (p)- the probability of
occurrence of a specified natural hazard at a specified
severity level in a specified future time period.
▧ Elements at risk - an inventory of those people or things,
which are exposed to the hazard.
▧ Expected loss (L) - the degree of loss to each element,
should a hazard of a given severity occur. Its accuracy and
acceptability will depend on the methodology used to derive
it.
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 “
Disaster losses include the direct impacts like the loss of
life, housing and infrastructure as well as indirect impacts
on production in utility services, transport labor supplies,
suppliers and markets. Secondary losses include impacts
on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth,
balance of payments, public spending and inflation. The
impacts are felt more by developing countries.
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In 1997, a cyclone struck the Andrah Pradesh. The following
loss figures were estimated for the East Godavari District.
Houses destroyed 289,906
Houses damaged 89,677
TOTAL 379, 583
Persons rendered homeless 1.442 million
If measures were taken to strengthen houses by retrofitting,
the loss would have been reduced as follows.
Houses destroyed Nil
Houses damaged 136,486
Persons rendered homeless 0.519 million
The economic benefit is estimated to be Rs. 91 crores

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It is advisable that, if a hazard event does occur, that a post-audit
be carried out so that one may match the 'actual Vs the expected'.
This would give more understanding on deficiencies of the Risk
Assessment carried out and help to improve the process next
Note: time around.
The probability of occurrence of natural hazards events may be estimated by
statistical extrapolation from historical data. The accuracy of such estimates
depends on the completeness of data and the period of time over which it
has been collected.

Losses are measured differently for different hazards, by different agencies

and by different users. Most loss data are dollar estimates, but some dollar
estimates are for specific agencies or only one level of government. The
estimates could show variability as well as considerable uncertainties and is
valid for only a short period of time.
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 2.2.1.

RISK
“
DEFINITION
ASSESSMENT

▧ It is the overall process of identifying and

analyzing risks. The characterizing hazards
within risk areas, analyzing them for the
consequences and probabilities of occurrence,
and combining the two estimate reach a risk
rating.
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▧ Risk Assessment provides a sound basis for mitigation
planning and for allocation funds and other resources.
▧ Some use the term Hazard Vulnerability Analysis
(HVA) to express Risk.
▧ It is the process of evaluating risk associated with a
specific hazard and defined in terms of probability and
frequency of occurrence, magnitude and SEVERITY,
exposure and consequences.
▧ Here, SEVERITY means the event's duration and
impact area.
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 FREQUENCY VS. SEVERITY
Where flooding occurs every year or every few years, the hazard
becomes part of the landscape, and projects are sited and designed
with this constraint in mind. Conversely, in an area where a tsunami
may strike any time in the next 50 or 100 years, it is difficult to
stimulate interest in vulnerability reduction measures even though the
damage may be catastrophic. With so long a time, investment in
capital-intensive measures may not be economically viable. Rare 'or
low-probability events of great severity are the most difficult to
mitigate, and vulnerability reduction may demand risk-aversion
measures beyond those justified by economic analysis.

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 There are many methodologies
for Risk Assessment from High
Tech computer-based methods
to pencil pushing and head
scratching Computer-based
Geographic Information
Systems (GIS) modeling use
many different kinds of
information to assess risk.
However it needs sophisticated
hardware, software and
expertise of handling them
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 2.2.1.

RISK
“
DEFINITION
MATRIX

▧ A simpler method is the Risk Matrix Analysis

▧ The method gives a qualitative measure that permits the
prioritization of risk among multiple hazards. It enables
hazard mitigation planners to classify various types of
hazards into different categories of priority by locating
them on a two- dimensional grid based on their probability
and37loss.
The ranking of ‘high’,’moderate’, and ‘low’ is subjective and would vary from
one group to another. The ranking depends on: Probability of hazard event
and Potential loss.
A risk Matrix
P
R
C B A A
O
B C B B A
A
B
I D C B B
L
I
T
D D C V
Y Very
Low Medium High
POTENTIAL LOSS
High

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 The following guidelines may be used to do a
matrix analysis.
PROBABILITY LOSS
High Events that occur more Based on the potential by
frequently than once in
10 years
taking into account elements at
risk
Moderate Events that occur from
once in 10 years to
once in 100 years. Fatalities, Injuries, Impact on
Low Events that occur from facilities, critical services and
once in 100 years to infrastructure, Property damage
once in 1000 years. Business interruption,
Very Low Events that occur less Environmental/Economic
frequently than once in
1000 years.
impact

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Class A
High-risk condition. Immediate action is necessary. Possible deaths over 1000. People affected may be
over 100,000. Complete shut down of facilities and critical services for more than 14 days. Over 50% of
property located in the area may be damaged

Class B
Moderate to high-risk condition where risk can be reduced by mitigation activities and contingency planning.
Prompt attention needed. Possible deaths less than 1000. People affected may be between 50,000 to 100,000
Complete shutdown of facilities and critical services for 7 days. 25% of the property located in the area may be
damaged

Class C
Low risk condition. However investment in further mitigation and planning may be necessary after cost-benefit
analysis. Possibility of death low. People affected between 10,000 and 50,000. Complete shutdown of facilities
not more than 1 day. About 10% of the property located in the area may be damaged.
Class D
Very low risk condition. Only limited action necessary. No possibility of death. People affected less than 10,000
Facilities and critical services may not be affected. About 1% of the property located in the area may be
damaged.
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 Risk as a function of hazard, loss and preparedness

▧ According to Fournier d'Albe (1979), risk may be

conceptualized as follows:
Hazard(probability)x Loss (expected)
RISK
Preparedness (Loss mitigation
=

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▧ In literature especially in training material there is a
tendency to replace 'preparedness' with "capacity" and
"manageability".
All three terms have tangible and intangible components
of:
▧ Physical/material
▧ Social/organizational
▧ Attitudinal/motivational aspects.

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▧ Thus their quantification cannot be discrete. It is advisable
therefore, not to treat this conceptualization as a
mathematical entity because of the emotive aspects that are
inclusive in "preparedness". It is wiser to consider that
disaster risk is a function of preparedness/capacity/
manageability.
✓ The greater the hazard probability, the greater the risk.
✓ The greater the loss, the greater the risk.
✓ The greater the preparedness or capacity of a community,
the lesser the risk (Capacity and Risk show an inversely
proportional relationship) Risk = function (hazard, loss,
preparedness) 43
 Preparedness has an inverse relationship
to risk
2.2.2. THE METHODOLOGY FOR RISK ASSESSMENT

i. Define the geographic area to be studied.

ii. Identify the type and amount of data needed to complete the risk
assessment.
iii. Identify the potential hazard(s) within the risk area.
iv. Identify vulnerability.
v. Prepare an inventory of elements at risk.
vi. Apply hazard specific damage functions to the inventory to
determine direct damage quantitatively or rank potential damage
qualitatively
qualita
vii. Apply loss functions to damage results to estimate level of
tively
financial, personal, or property losses quantitatively or rank
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potential losses
 ▧ I. STUDY AREA
The first step in the risk assessment process is to
demarcate the extent of the area that comes under the
study. The boundaries used may be administrative,
political, geographic or user defined grid. This selection is
based on the objective of the study. If the objective is to
prepare a regional emergency response plan, the study
area must include the communities where emergency
response teams are expected to be active. If the objective
is to plan local community mitigation action, then the
study area may be much smaller.
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 II. DATA COLLECTION
Data must be complete as much as possible, accurate
and must be relevant to the objective of the study. It is
wise to identify the potential sources of data needed and
the methods to collect them prior to the collection proper.
In order to assure consistency, it may be necessary to
orient the data collectors prior to field action.

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 III. POTENTIAL HAZARDS
This is the process of hazard identification discussed
earlier. The step may lead to the preparation of hazard
maps.
IV. VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
V.ELEMENTS AT RISK
These were discussed earlier.
VI. DETERMINING POTENTIAL DAMAGE
Research results have helped to define damage
damage likely to occur with specific hazard exposure.
With adequate data, acceptable
47 quantitative assessments
 arrived at. Where data is insure qualitative ranking of
potential damage may be done.
VII. APPLICATION OF LOSS FUNCTIONS
Based on the assessment of damage, loss functions may
be applied so that the we as human casualties may be
estimated. This is a little complex as the number of
people in particular buildings at different times of the day
varies. An example is a school. If the disaster strikes
during the night, there are no casualties associated with
the school building.
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 2.2.3.

▧
RISK
“
DEFINITION
MAPPING
This is the presentation of the results of risk assessment on a map,
showing the levels of expected losses which can be anticipated in
specific areas, during a particular time period, as a result of
particular disaster hazards - UNDRO
▧ Usually qualitative terms such as 'high', 'medium' and 'low' are used
to represent the level of risk. Risk assessment results and hazard
maps studied under Session 4 can be combined to yield a Risk
Map.
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 2.2.4.

▧
RISK
“
DEFINITION
PERCEPTION
Knowing how the general public perceives risk is helpful for
hazard management activities. Risk means different things to
different people. The dominant influence is past experience.
Most lay perceivers and the media give greater weight to
hazards that take many lives at any one time. Technical experts
may give similar weight to hazards that may give rise to
cumulative effect. There is need therefore for better
communication between the two groups. (Smith 2001).
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 Risk perception may be studied in two different ways.
The revealed preference is through observing. The expressed
preference is obtained through questionnaires distributed to the
perceivers. However, the study of opinion is a difficult task whatever
the method is used.

Many might express a fatalistic view - that nothing can be done about
risk. Some may deny the threat. With adequate awareness, others
may consider that survival possible through preparedness. Risk
perception is influenced by many interrelated factors such as past
experience, attitudes, values, as well as social and cultural
perspectives.
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 A politician who has a probabilistic perception that
disasters will occur and that many events are random
would probably be strength in resource allocation and
mitigation work.

Another with a dissonant perception would deny the

threat and would dismiss the possibility of a hazard event
striking again. He would be a hindrance to risk mitigation
work. Hazard management must therefore involve
awareness creation amongst stakeholders.
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 2.2.5.

▧
ACCEPTABLE
“
DEFINITION
RISK

This is a subjective evaluation from an individual or a

group point of view. For example, living near a flood
plain may bring the benefit of fertile soil for agriculture.
The farmers may tolerate annual floods up to a
threshold value. Beyond this level the losses may
override the benefits. Risk becomes unacceptable.
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 2.2.5.

▧
ACCEPTABLE
“
EXAMPLE
RISK

Similarly local administrative bodies or national governments may

ignore risk up to a certain magnitude as hazard reduction measures
might not appear desirable through a cost-benefit analysis. The use
of a Risk Matrix might help in determining whether a risk is
acceptable. This may be important in decision making to allocate
scarce resources for disaster management. Defining the acceptable
level of risk is the responsibility of the government.

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 2.2.5.

▧
RISK COMMU
“
DEFINITION
NICATION

An interactive process of exchange of information and

opinion among stakeholders; often involves multiple
messages about the nature of risk or expressing
concerns, opinions, or reactions to risk messages or to
legal and institutional arrangements for risk
management.
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