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E ST I MA T E O F P O P U L A TI O N
P RO P O R T I O N
A research team conducted
a survey to 1050 adults and
asked if they use public
transportation going to work.
Out of 1050 respondents, 777
said yes. Construct a 95%
confidence interval estimate.
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
Confidence interval expresses
an estimate of a population
parameter in a range or interval
around the point estimate instead
of a single value. It gives a better
estimate of the population.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL
Confidence level, denoted by
1 - , is the probability that the
confidence interval contains
the population proportion.
From the problem, 95%, the
confidence level, represents a level of
assurance to the constructed interval
estimate. It means if the process is
repeated and many samples are taken,
say 100 samples of the same sample size
1050, and a confidence interval is
constructed for each, 95 out of 100, the
true value of population proportion would
fall on the interval estimate constructed.
• The critical value is a z-value that separates
the outcomes that are probable to occur from
those which are not probable to occur.
• The middle region 0.95 or 95% is the
confidence interval 1 - .
• = 0.05 is the region outside the confidence
interval estimate which is the upper and
lower tail that sums to 5%.
• A normal distribution is a symmetric distribution,
dividing by two, . Thus, 2.5% on each end tail
region.
FINDING THE CRITICAL VALUE
where:
is the sample proportion
p is the population proportion
E is the margin of error
• It can also be expressed as
In a confidence
interval, the
range of values
above and below
the sample
statistic is called
the margin of
error.
MARGIN OF ERROR
The following formula is used to find the margin of
error.
where:
E is the margin of error is the critical value
is the point estimator (sample proportion)
is the complement of n is the sample size
Before constructing a confidence
interval estimate for the
population proportion, verify if n >
5 and n > 5. This is to verify that
the sampling distribution of the
sample proportion is
approximately normal.
Example: A research team
conducted a survey to 1050
adults and asked if they use
public transportation going to
work. Out of 1050 respondents,
777 said yes. Construct a 95%
confidence interval estimate.
Solution:
Step 1. List the known facts of the
x = 777
problem.
n = 1050
confidence level = 95%
Step 2. Find the values of and .
=
Step 3. Verify if the sampling
distribution of the sample proportion is
suitable for the approximation of
normal distribution.
Verify if n > 5 Verify if n > 5
(1050)(0.74) > 5 (1050)
(0.26) > 5
777 > 5
273 > 5
*Since both conditions were satisfied, the
confidence interval can be constructed.
Step 4. Find the critical value that
corresponds to the given confidence
interval.
Using the z-table, find the z-score that
corresponds to 0.95. The z-score for
0.95 is 1.96. Thus, = 1.96.
Step 5. Find the margin of error.