Assignment 2

Background, Origin, Role, Structure, Report Preparation,

Assessment Reports

SUBMITTED BY:
SMRITI
 BACKGROUND
•The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is
the international body for assessing the science related
to climate change.

•The IPCC was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological

Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP)

•It was awarded the Nobel peace prize in 2007

•IPCC functions under UNFCC

•The aims of the IPCC are to assess scientific information

relevant to :
1. Human-induced climate change,
2. The impacts of human-induced climate change,
•3. Options
The for adaptation
IPCC produces and
reports mitigation
that contribute to the work of the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the main international treaty on climate change.

•The objective of the UNFCCC is to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a
level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate
system"
 ORIGIN
•The IPCC developed from an international scientific body, the Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases set up
in 1985 by the International Council of Scientific Unions, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),
and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide recommendations based on current research.

•The U.S. government was the main force in forming the IPCC as an autonomous intergovernmental
body in which scientists took part both as experts on the science and as official representatives of their
governments, to produce reports which had the firm backing of all the leading scientists worldwide
researching the topic, and which then had to gain consensus agreement from every one of the participating
governments. In this way, it was formed as a hybrid between a scientific body and an intergovernmental
political organization.

•The United Nations formally endorsed the creation of the IPCC in 1988. Some of the reasons the UN
stated in its resolution include :
─"Certain human activities could change global climate patterns, threatening present and future
generations with potentially severe economic and social consequences"

─"Continued growth in atmospheric concentrations of "greenhouse" gases could produce global

warming with an eventual rise in sea levels, the effects of which could be disastrous for mankind if
timely steps are not taken at all levels."
 ROLE
•The IPCC does not conduct its own original research nor does it monitor climate related data or other
relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published
scientific/technical literature.

• It produces comprehensive assessments, reports on special topics, and methodologies.

• The assessments build on previous reports, highlighting the latest knowledge. For example, the wording of
the reports from the first to the fifth assessment reflects the growing evidence for a changing
climate caused by human activity.

─ the risk of human-induced climate change,

•The IPCC has adopted and published "Principles Governing IPCC Work",which states that the IPCC will
─ its potential impacts, and
assess: ─ possible options for prevention.
There are several major groups:
STRUCTURE OF
1. IPCC Panel: Meets in plenary session about IPCC
once a year. It controls the organization's
structure, procedures, and work programme, and
accepts and approves IPCC reports. The Panel is
the IPCC corporate entity.
2. Chair: Elected by the Panel.
3. Secretariat: Oversees and manages all
activities. Supported by UNEP and WMO.
4. Bureau: Elected by the Panel. Chaired by the
Chair. 34 members include IPCC Vice-Chairs, Co-
Chairs of Working Groups and the Task Force,
and Vice-Chairs of the Working Groups. It

5. provides
Workingguidance
Groups: to thehas
Each Panel
twoon the scientific
Co-Chairs, one from the developed and one from developing world, and a
and technical
technical supportaspects of its work.
unit. Sessions of the Working Group approve the Summary for Policymakers of special reports
and working group contributions to an assessment report. Each Working Group has a Bureau comprising its Co-
Chairs and Vice-Chairs, who are also members of the IPCC Bureau.
• Working Group I: Assesses scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.
• Working Group II: Assesses vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change,
consequences, and adaptation options.
• Working Group III: Assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating
climate change.
 STRUCTURE OF
IPCC
6. Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
Task Force Bureau: Comprises the two Co-Chairs, who are also members of the IPCC Bureau, and 12
members.

7. Executive Committee: Comprises the Chair, IPCC Vice-Chairs and the Co-Chairs of the Working Groups
and Task Force. Its role includes addressing urgent issues that arise between sessions of the Panel.

8. Authors, Contributors, Reviewers, Review Editor

 PREPARATION OF
•According REPORTS
to IPCC guidelines, authors should give priority to peer-
reviewed sources.

•There are generally three stages in the review process:

Expert review (6–8 weeks)
Government/expert review
Government review of:
─ Summaries for Policymakers
─ Overview Chapters
─ Synthesis Report

•There are several types of endorsement which documents receive:

Approval- Material has been subjected to detailed, line by line
discussion and agreement.
─ Working Group Summaries for Policymakers are
approved by their Working Groups.
─ Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers is approved
by Panel.
Adoption- Endorsed section by section (and not line by line).
─ Panel adopts Overview Chapters of Methodology Reports.
─ Panel adopts IPCC Synthesis Report.
Acceptance- Not been subject to line by line discussion and
agreement, but presents a comprehensive, objective, and balanced
view of the subject matter.
─ Working Groups accept their reports.
─ Task Force Reports are accepted by the Panel.
─ Working Group Summaries for Policymakers are accepted
by the Panel after group approval.

•The Panel is responsible for the IPCC and its endorsement of Reports
allows it to ensure they meet IPCC standards.
 ASSESSMENT

•The IPCC has published five comprehensive assessment reports reviewing the latest climate science,as
well as a number of special reports on particular topics. These reports are prepared by teams of relevant
researchers selected by the Bureau from government nominations. Expert reviewers from a wide range of
governments, IPCC observer organizations and other organizations are invited at different stages to comment
on various aspects of the drafts.
•The IPCC published its First Assessment Report (FAR) in 1990, a supplementary report in 1992, a Second
Assessment Report (SAR) in 1995, a Third Assessment Report (TAR) in 2001, a Fourth Assessment
Report (AR4) in 2007 and a Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. The IPCC is currently preparing the
Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which will be completed in 2022.
•Each assessment report is in three volumes, corresponding to Working Groups I, II, and III. It is completed by
a synthesis report that integrates the working group contributions and any special reports produced in that
 FIRST ASSESSMENT
REPORT
•The IPCC First Assessment Report (FAR) was completed in 1990, and served as the basis of the UNFCCC.

•The report says they are certain that emissions resulting from human activities are substantially
increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases, resulting on average in an
additional warming of the Earth's surface.

•They calculate that CO2 has been responsible for over half the enhanced greenhouse effect. They
predict that under a "business as usual" (BAU) scenario, global mean temperature will increase by
about 0.3 °C per decade during the 21st century.

•They find that global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 °C over the last
100 years, broadly consistent with prediction of climate models, but also of the same magnitude as natural
climate variability.
 SECOND ASSESSMENT
REPORT
Climate Change 1995, the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR), was finished in 1996. It is split into four
parts:
1. A synthesis to help interpret UNFCCC article 2.
2. The Science of Climate Change (WG I)
3. Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change (WG II)
4. Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change (WG III)

Each of the last three parts was completed by a separate Working Group (WG), and each has a Summary for
Policymakers (SPM) that represents a consensus of national representatives. The SPM of the WG I report
contains headings:
1. Greenhouse gas concentrations have continued to increase
2. Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcings
3. Climate has changed over the past century (air temperature has increased by between 0.3 and 0.6 °C
since the late 19th century; this estimate has not significantly changed since the 1990 report).
4. The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate (considerable progress
since the 1990 report in distinguishing between natural and anthropogenic influences on climate, because
of: including aerosols; coupled models; pattern-based studies)
5. Climate is expected to continue to change in the future (increasing realism of simulations increases
confidence; important uncertainties remain but are taken into account in the range of model projections)
6. There are still many uncertainties (estimates of future emissions and biogeochemical cycling; models;
instrument data for model testing, assessment of variability, and detection studies)
 THIRD ASSESSMENT
REPORT
The Third Assessment Report (TAR) was completed in 2001 and consists of four reports, three of them from
its Working Groups:
1. Working Group I: The Scientific Basis
2. Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
3. Working Group III: Mitigation
4. Synthesis Report

Robust findings of the TAR Synthesis Report include:

•"Observations show Earth's surface is warming. Globally, 1990s very likely warmest decade in instrumental
record".[ Atmospheric concentrations of anthropogenic (i.e., human-emitted) greenhouse gases have
increased substantially.
•Since the mid-20th century, most of the observed warming is "likely" (greater than 66% probability, based
on expert judgement) due to human activities.
•Projections based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios suggest warming over the 21st century at a
more rapid rate than that experienced for at least the last 10,000 years.
•"Projected climate change will have beneficial and adverse effects on both environmental and socio-
economic systems, but the larger the changes and the rate of change in climate, the more the adverse
effects predominate."
•"Ecosystems and species are vulnerable to climate change and other stresses (as illustrated by observed
impacts of recent regional temperature changes) and some will be irreversibly damaged or lost."
•"Greenhouse gas emission reduction (mitigation) actions would lessen the pressures on natural and human
systems from climate change."
•"Adaptation [to the effects of climate change] has the potential to reduce adverse effects of climate change
 FOURTH ASSESSMENT
The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was published in 2007. Like previous assessment reports, it consists of
REPORT
four reports:
1. Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis
2. Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
3. Working Group III: Mitigation
4. Synthesis Report

Robust findings of the Synthesis report include:[

•"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level". [
•Most of the global average warming over the past 50 years is "very likely" (greater than 90% probability,
based on expert judgement) due to human activities.
•"Impacts [of climate change] will very likely increase due to increased frequencies and intensities of some
extreme weather events".
•"Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries even if GHG emissions were to be
reduced sufficiently for GHG concentrations to stabilise, due to the time scales associated with climate
processes and feedbacks". Stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations is discussed in climate
change mitigation.
•"Some planned adaptation (of human activities) is occurring now; more extensive adaptation is required to
reduce vulnerability to climate change".
• "Unmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed
and human systems to adapt".
The IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was completed in 2014.
FIFTH ASSESSMENT
Conclusions of AR5 are :
Working Group I
REPORT
•"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are
unprecedented over decades to millennia".
•"Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels
unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years“.
•Human influence on the climate system is clear.] It is extremely likely (95-100% probability) that human
influence was the dominant cause of global warming between 1951-2010.
Working Group II
•"Increasing magnitudes of [global] warming increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible
impacts”.
•"A first step towards adaptation to future climate change is reducing vulnerability and exposure to present
climate variability"
•"The overall risks of climate change impacts can be reduced by limiting the rate and magnitude of climate
change“
Working Group III
•Without new policies to mitigate climate change, projections suggest an increase in global mean temperature
in 2100 of 3.7 to 4.8 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels (median values; the range is 2.5 to 7.8 °C including
climate uncertainty).
•The current trajectory of global greenhouse gas emissions is not consistent with limiting global warming to
below 1.5 or 2 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels. Pledges made as part of the Cancún Agreements are broadly
consistent with cost-effective scenarios that give a "likely" chance (66-100% probability) of limiting global
 STRENGTHS OF THE IPCC

•Mobilisation of thousands of multidisciplinary experts worldwide

•Review process involving experts and Governments
•Policy-relevant findings (but not policy prescriptive)
•Widely used methodological reports
•Media attention and outreach activities
•Assessments relying
 BACKGROUND
•It produces report based on scientific
developments across the world.
•The IPCC does not carry out its own
original research, nor does it do the work of
monitoring climate or related phenomena
itself. The IPCC bases its assessment on the IPCC plenary comprises of
published literature all countries in the world
•IPCC has so far produced five assessment • IPCC Bureau comprises
reports, the latest one was published in of
2014. It said that India’s high vulnerability 34 elected members; IPCC
and exposure to climate change will slow its elects its Bureau every 6-
economic growth, impact health and 7
development, make poverty reduction more years
difficult and erode food security • 3 Working Groups & a
Task Force on National
Greenhouse Gas
Inventories
• Authors, Contributors,
Reviewers, Review