U.

S ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS

RISK-BASED ANALYSIS FOR FLOOD-
DAMAGE REDUCTION STUDIES
Terminology, Benefit Evaluation & Uncertainty of Stage-
Damage Function
 TERMINOLOGY
• Qualitative description of errors or uncertainty in selecting the
proper hydrologic, hydraulic, and economic function to use when
evaluating economic and engineering performance of flood-damage
reduction measures

• Qualitative description of errors or uncertainty in selecting the

parameters of these functions

• Conceptual techniques that determine the combined impact on plan

evolution of errors in the function and their parameters
FLOOD-DAMAGE-REDUCTION PLAN
- includes measures that reduce damage by reducing discharge,
reducing stage, or reducing damage susceptibility (U.S Army Corps
of Engineers, 1996b).

FLOOD-DAMAGE-REDUCTION PLANNING STUDY

- conducted to determine (1) which measures to include in the
plan, (2) where to locate the measures, (3) what size to make
measures, and (4) how to operate measures in order to satisfy the
federal objective and constraints.
 TERM
Function uncertainty (also referred
to as distribution uncertainty and Lack of complete knowledge regarding the form of a hydrologic, hydraulic, or economic function to
model uncertainty)
Parameter
Parameter uncertainty
Sensitivity analysis
Exceedance probability
Median exceedance probability
Capacity exceedance
Conditional probability
Long-term risk
DEFINITION
use in a particular application. This uncertainty arises from incomplete scientific or technical
understanding of the hydrologic, hydraulic, or economic process
A quantity in a function that determines the specific form of the relationship of known input and
unknown output. An example is Manning’s roughness coefficient in energy loss calculations. The
value of this parameter determines the relationship between a specified discharge rate and the
unknown energy loss in a specific channel reach
Uncertainty in a parameter due to limited understanding of the relationship or due to lack of
accuracy with which parameters can be estimated for a selected hydrologic, hydraulic, or economic
function.
Computation of the effect on the output of changes in input values or assumption
The probability that a specified magnitude will be exceeded. Unless otherwise noted, this term is
used herein to denote annual exceedance probability: the likelihood of exceedance in any year.
In a sample of estimates of exceedance probability of a specified magnitude, this is the value that is
exceeded by 50 percent of the estimates.
Capacity exceedance implies exceedance of the capacity of a water conveyance, storage facility, or
damage-reduction measure. This includes levee or reservoir capacity exceeded before over-topping,
channel capacity exceedance, or rise of water above the level of raised structures.
The probability of capacity exceedance, given the occurrence of a specified event
The probability of capacity exceedance during a specified period. For example, 30-year risk refers to
the probability of one or more exceedances of the capacity of a measure during a 30-year period.
Expected value E[ ] of inundation damage X can be calculated
using:

where f(x) is the probability density function of x.

BENEFIT EVALUATION
Net Benefit – measure of the flood-damage reduction plan’s
contribution to national economic development (NED).
Location Benefit – increased net income of additional flood plain
development due to a plan.
Intensification Benefit – is the increased net income of existing
floodplain activities
Inundation-Reduction Benefit – is the plan related reduction in
physical economic damage, income loss, and emergency cost
•   economic efficiency of a proposed flood-damage-reduction
The
alternative is defined as

NB = (+) – C

In which NB = net benefit, = location benefit, = intensification

benefit, = inundation-reduction benefit, and C = total cost
•The  inundation-reduction benefit may be expressed as

=(-

In which, =economic flood damage without the plan, and =

economic flood damage if the plan is implemented
•  
Combining the two previous equations yield:

NB = +

In which E[] denotes the expected value.

 UNCERTAINTY OF STAGE-DAMAGE FUNCTION
STEP TASK
1 Identify and categorize each structure in the study area based upon its use and construction
2 Establish the first-floor elevation of each structure using topographic maps, aerial photographs, surveys,
and/or hand levels
3 Estimate the value of each structure using real estate appraisals, recent sales prices, property tax
assessments, replacement cost estimates, or surveys
4 Estimate the value of the contents of each structure using an estimate of the ratio of contents value to
structure value for each unique structure category
5 Estimate damage to each structure due to flooding to various water depths at the structure’s site using a
depth-percent damage function for the structure’s category along with the value from Step 3
6 Estimate damage to the contents of each structure due to flooding to various water depths using a
depth-percent damage function for contents for the structure category along with the value from Step 4
7 Transform each structure’s depth-damage function to a stage-damage function at an index location for
the floodplain using computed water-surface profiles for reference floods
8 Aggregate the estimated damages for all structures by category for common stages
 PARAMETER/MODEL
Number of structures in each
category
First-floor elevation of structure
Depreciated replacement value of
structure
Structure depth-damage function
Depreciated replacement value of
contents
Content depth-damage function
SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY
Errors in identifying structures; errors in classifying structures
Survey errors; inaccuracies in topographic maps; errors in interpolation of
contour lines
Errors in real estate appraisal; errors in estimation of replacement cost
estimation-effective age; errors in estimation of depreciation; errors in
estimation of market value
Errors in post-flood damage survey; failure to account for other critical
factors: floodwater velocity; duration of flood; sediment load; building
material; internal construction; condition; flood warning
Errors in content-inventory survey; errors in estimates of ratio of content
to structure value
Errors in post-flood damage survey; failure to account for other critical
factors: floodwater velocity; duration of flood; sediment load; content
location; flood warning
OPERATION OF RESERVOIR
SYSTEMS FOR FLOOD
CONTROL
Flood-Control Operation Rules & Tennessee Valley
Authority (TVA) Reservoir System Operation
FLOOD-CONTROL OPERATION RULES
Operation rules (policies) - used to specify how water is
managed throughout a system.

Flood-control operating rules - defined as the release to be made

in the current time period as a function of one or more of the
following: current storage in the reservoir, forecast inflow to the
reservoir, current and forecast downstream flow, and current
storage in and forecast flow to other reservoirs in a multiple-
reservoir system.
TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY (TVA)RESERVOIR SYSTEM
OPERATION
 DETENTION STORAGE (ac-ft)

ABOVE TOTAL TOTAL SYSTEM

TIME OF YEAR
CHATTANOOGA SYSTEM RUNOFF(in)

January 1 6,339,780 11,330,480 5.3

March 15 5,189,750 10,030,760 4.7

June 1 1,571,580 2,137,540 1

 CONSTRAINT ON RELEASE MADE CONDITION
Release to draw storage to top of conservation pool Storage is between top of conservation pool and top
without exceeding channel capacity at reservoir or of floodcontrol pool
downstream points for which reservoir is operated

Release equal to or greater than minimum desired flow Storage greater than top buffer storage
Release equal to minimum desired flow Storage between top inactive and top of buffer pool
No release Storage below top of inactive pool
Release required to satisfy hydropower requirement If that release is greater than controlling desired or
required flows for above conditions

Release limited to user-specified rate of change Unless reservoir is in surcharge operation

No release that will continue to flooding downstream If flood storage available
Release to maintain downstream flow at channel
capacity If operating for flood control
Release from reservoir at greatest level If two or more reservoirs on parallel streams operate
for common downstream point
Release to bring upper reservoir to same index level as If two reservoirs in tandem
downstream reservoir
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