World-wide energy

needs

“There is enough for everybody's need -

but not for everybody's greed”

Mahatma Gandhi
Global energy flow (TW)
Sollys Reflektert Varme-
178.000 sollys stråling

53.000

83.000
Følbar varme 41.000
i luft, vann
og jord

Fordamping Is, vann

Kondensering
Smelting damp Frysing
Elver 5 Måne- og
Tidevann
planet-
Vind, bølger, havstrømmer 370 3 bevegelser

100
Fotosyntese Nedbryting 35
Planter
Varme-
Kjernekraft tap

0,5
Fossile Uttak 7,5 Geotermisk
Uran
brensler varme
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 Energy Recourses
• Non Renewable:
– Oil (included NLG, ”Natural Gas Liquids”)
• Conventional
• Unconventional (oil shale, tare sand)
– Natural gas:
• Conventional
• Unconventional
– Coal:
• Hard coal
• Lignite (brown coal)
• (Peat)
– Nuclear Fuel
• Uranium
• Thorium

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 Energy Recourses (cont.)
• Renewable
– Hydro power
– Peat ?
– Wood
– Other biomass
– Solar energy
• Thermal
• Electrical
– Geothermal
– Wind
– Waves
– Tidal energy
– Salt gradients
– OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion)

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Energy resources. Billion toe.
(Source: IIASA, WEC)
Consumption Reserve Resource Total Additional
1850-1990 1990 (Uncertain)
Oil
Conventional 90 3,2 150 145 295
Unconventional 193 332 525 1900

Natural gas
Conventional 41 1,7 141 279 420
Unconventional 192 258 450 400

Coal 125 2,2 606 2794 3400 3000

Total fossil 256 7,0 1282 3808 5090 5300
Uranium 17 0,5 57 203 260 150
In FBR 3390 12150

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 Energy resources.
Static life time (Years).
(Source: IIASA, WEC)

Based on reserve Resources

included

Oil
Conventional 46 92
Unconventional 107 256
Natural gas
Conventional 83 247
Unconventional 192 511
Coal 175 1545
Total fossil 183 727
Uranium 114
In FBR 6780
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 Oil

Institutt for elkraftteknikk

Source: BP NTNU
7
 Gas

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Source: BP 8
NTNU
 Oil reserves
Europe
7%
Asia
6%
South America
8%
North America
8%
Africa Middle East
7% 64 %
Oceania
0%

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 Natural gas
Middle East
Europe 34 %
37 %

Oceania
South North 1%
Asia Africa
11 % Am erica Am erica
7%
4% 6%

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 Static life time for oil (years)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Africa

Asia
Middle

Europe

World
Oceania

America
East

America

South
North

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 Coal

Middle East
0 % OceaniaAfrica
9% Middle East
Europe 6%
32 % Oceania
Africa
North America
North America
26 % South America
Asia

Asia South America Europe

25 % 2%

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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
15
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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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 IEA/OECD: “World Energy
Outlook”
2006 Edition

• Total energy intensity will decrease in

all countries

• Electricity intensity will increase in

developing countries, stabilise or
decrease the rest of the world

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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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 Global primary energy use
Gtoe
50 Wourld population [billions]
12

40 A
8

30 4
B

0
20 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 C

10

0
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Source: IIASA, WEC

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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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IIASA Global
perspectives 1998
Evolution of primary
energy shares

Green Scenarios

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 Global power production
IIASA: Scenario A2, A1, B, C1
TWh/year TWh/year
100000 A2 100000 A1
Others Others
75000 75000
Hydro Hydro
Nuclear Nuclear
50000 50000
Nat. Gas Nat. Gas
Oil Oil
25000 25000
Coal Coal
0 0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

TWh/year TWh/year C1
100000 B 100000

Others Others
75000 75000
Hydro Hydro
Nuclear Nuclear
50000 50000
Nat. Gas Nat. Gas
Oil Oil
25000 25000
Coal Coal

0 0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

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 World electricity generation
IIASA: Scenario A1
TWh/year
100000

Others
75000
Hydro
Nuclear
50000
Nat. Gas
Oil
25000
Coal

0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

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30
NTNU
World electricity generation
IIASA: Scenario A2
TWh/year
100000

Others
75000
Hydro
Nuclear
50000
Nat. Gas
Oil
25000
Coal

0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

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31
NTNU
 World electricity generation
IIASA: Scenario A3
TWh/year
100000

Others
75000
Hydro
Nuclear
50000
Nat. Gas
Oil
25000
Coal

0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

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32
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World electricity generation
IIASA: Scenario B
TWh/year
100000

Others
75000
Hydro
Nuclear
50000
Nat. Gas
Oil
25000
Coal

0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

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33
NTNU
 World electricity generation
IIASA: Scenario C1
TWh/year
100000

Others
75000
Hydro
Nuclear
50000
Nat. Gas
Oil
25000
Coal

0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
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34
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World electricity generation
IIASA: Scenario C2
TWh/year
100000

Others
75000
Hydro
Nuclear
50000
Nat. Gas
Oil
25000
Coal

0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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CO2-concentration 1959-2004, from Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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Contribution to GHG emmision

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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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 Green Paper: NOU 2006:18
A Climate Friendly Norway
The Report from Norway’s Low
Emissions Commission
Mandate:
Show how national emissions in
Norway can be reduced by 50 - 80
% by 2050.
Appointed by the Government 11. March 2005
Professor Jørgen Randers, Oslo (chair)
Exec. direktor Eli Arnstad, Enova
Professor Ola Flåten, Univ. Of Tromsø
Direktor Alvhild Hedstein, Ecolabeling
Direktor Hanne Lekva, Statoil
Direktor Lasse Nord, Hydro
Konserndirektør Sverre Aam, Sintef
 Why … Norway?
• The rich countries have a large
responsibility for today’s situation.

• Reasonable that they should lead

the way. Norway

• If not rich Norway, who then?

• Other progressive countries have

started.

• Early mover opportunities.

• ”All” countries are small.

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Greenhouse gas emissions in the past and in the
Commission’s reference path, 1990–2050
MtCO2-eq. per year

Electricity production

Oil and gas activities

Process industry

Transportation

Heating
Agriculture, waste

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 Greenhouse gas emissions in the past, in the
reference path, and in the proposed low-emission
path 1990–2050
MtCO2-eq. per year

Reference path
-CO2 capture and storage from gas- or coal-fired
power plants,
new renewable energy

-Electrification of offshore activities

-CO2 capture and storage from industry, process
improvements

-Biofuels, low- and zero-emission vehicles and

ships

Low-emission path -Improved energy efficiency and biomass

-Methane capture

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 3 200 Bill. NOK
Effect on GDP
Reference path

2 700
Mrd. 1999-kr.

2 200

Referansebanen
Lavutslippsbanen
1 700 Low emissions path

1 200
1995 2010 2025 2040 2055

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 It is necessary, doable and not
unreasonably expensive to reduce
The Commission’s Norway’s GHG emissions by two thirds
by the year 2050.
main conclusion

Norge can without significant

renunciations become a climate friendly
country by the mid century.

Norway should establish the formal goal

of reducing GHG emissions from
Norwegian territory by two thirds by
2050.

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Institutt for elkraftteknikk
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World generation mix 1995
TWh (%) GW (%)*
Coal 4949 (37) 1193 (38)
Hydro 2496 (19) 725 (23)
Gas 1932 (15) 465 (15)
Nuclear 2337 (18) 368 (12)
Oil 1315 (10) 317 (10)
Other 129 (<1) 31 (<1)
Geothermal 42 (<1) 10 (<1)

Totalt: 13200 (100) 3109 (100)

* Estimated.

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 Expected new capacity 1996 - 2005
(Source: TMI Handbook 1997)

GW Andel
Coal 205 30,8%
Hydro 149 22,4%
Gas 129 19,4%
Nuclear 65 9,8%
Oil 49 7,4%
LNG 29 4,4%
Waste heat 24 3,6%
Other 12 1,8%
Geothermal 3 0,5%

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Global hydro resources (TWh/år)
Theoretical potential: 39 000 TWh/year ( Norway: 600 )
Technically exploitable: 14 000 TWh/year ( Norway: 178 )
Developed (1996): 2 500 TWh/year ( Norway: 114 )

Source: WEC

5000
4000
3000 Teknisk potensiale
2000 Utbygd
1000
0

Asia
Africa
Middle

Europe
America
Oceania
East

America

South
North

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 Renewable Generation
Costs
Cost pr. kWh
1 Solar electricity

2 Solar heat

3 Etanol/metanol
from biofuel

4 El from biofuel

5 Wind power
1
3 2
4

Gas turbines 5

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 Source: Sydkraft

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 Wind power. World capacity

16000

14000

12000
Other
10000
M China
W 8000 India
USA
6000
EU
4000

2000

0
198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000

År

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 Other renewables OECD (-)
2000/2010/2020/2030
700
TWh/year 700 TWh/ year
600 600
500 500
400 400
300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0
Bio Vind Geo Sol Hav Bio Vind Geo Sol Hav

Reference scenario Alternativ scenario

Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2002

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 Power generation EU
2000/2010/2020/2030
TWh/ year TWh/ year
1600 15 gas plants pr. year, 400 MW 1600
1400 1400
1200 1200
8 gas plants pr year, 400 MW
1000
2030 1000
2020
800 800
2010
600 600
2000
400 400
200 200
0 0
Kull Olje Gass Kjerne Vann A.forn. Hydrogen Kull Olje Gass Kjerne Vann A.forn. Hydrogen

Reference scenario Alternativ scenario

Sum: Sum:
2000:2572 TWh 2000:2572 TWh
2010:3064 TWh 2010:2959 TWh
2020:3511 TWh 2020:3207 TWh
2030:3835 TWh 2030:3383 TWh

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2002

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 Other renewables EU
2000/2010/2020/2030
400 TWh/ year 400 TWh/ year
350 2030 350
300 2020 300
250 2010 250
200
2000 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Bio Vind Geo Sol Hav Bio Vind Geo Sol Hav

Referansescenario Alternativt scenario

Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2002

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 Kraftproduksjon i dagens EU-land
a)2000 b)IEA 2030 reference scenario c)2030 alternativ scenario

1600 TWh/ year Sum generation:

1400 a) 2572 TWh
b) 3834
1200 c) 3383
Alternativ scenario
1000 Reference scenario
800 Data for 2000

600
400
200
0
Kjerne Kull Gass Vann Olje Bio Vind H2 sol

Source: International EnergyInstitutt

Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2002
for elkraftteknikk
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