A discussion on

why societies
choose to fail or
collapse…
I. Failure to Anticipate a Problem
A. Reasons
1. They may not have had no prior experience of
such problems, and so may not have been
sensitized the possibility.

2. The experience of having a problem may had

happened so long ago, as to have been forgotten.
a.) in the context of non-literate societies
b.) in the context of literate societies
3. Reasoning by false analogy
Wrong decisions =
Depression
= Collapse
= Disaster
II. Failure to perceive a problem
once it has arisen
A. Reasons
1. Origins of some problems are literally
imperceptible
2. Distant Managers
3. When a problem takes the form of a slow
trend concealed by wide up-and-down
fluctuations.
a.) “creeping normalcy”
b.) “landscape amnesia”
a.) “creeping normalcy”
b.) “landscape amnesia”

before
after
III. Failure to Attempt to Solve a
Problem once it has been perceived
A. Reasons
1. Rational "bad” behavior, arising from
clashes of interest between people.
a.) Perverse subsidies
b.) "Good for me, bad for you and for
everybody else" attitude—
selfishness
c.) Tragedy of the commons
d.) ISEP – “It's someone else's
problem” (not mine! Duh..)
e.) When the principal consumer has no
long-term stake in preserving the
resource but society as a whole does.
f.) When the interests of the decision-
making elite in power clash with the
interests of the rest of the society.

"bad”
2. Irrational “worse” Behavior
"Wooden-headedness, the source
of self deception, is a factor that
plays a remarkably large role in
government. It consists in
assessing a situation in terms of
preconceived fixed notions while
ignoring or rejecting any contrary
signs. It is acting according to
wish while not allowing oneself to
be deflected by the facts. No
experience of failure shakes belief
in its essential excellence."
Mental standstill
 "Persistence in error is
the problem. Practitioners of
government continue down
the wrong road as if in thrall
to some magic power which
directs their steps. To
recognize error, to cut
losses, to alter course is the
most repugnant option in
government."
In Economics and in
business decision-
making, sunk costs
are costs that have
already been
incurred and which
cannot be recovered
to any significant
degree.
“disastrous values”
religious values

modern secular
values

“disastrous values”
OTHER IRRATIONAL VALUES
4. Other Irrational Failures

a.) The public may widely dislike those who

first perceive the problem
OTHER IRRATIONAL VALUES
a. The public may widely dislike those
who first perceive the problem
b.) The public may dismiss warnings
because of previous warnings that
proved to be false alarms – The boy
who cried (wolf) bomb!
OTHER IRRATIONAL VALUES
c. Clashes between short-term and long-
term motives of the same individual
OTHER IRRATIONAL VALUES
d. Crowd psychology
> Ordinary people can typically gain
direct power by acting collectively.
>because large groups of people have
been able to effect dramatic and
sudden social change in a manner that
bypasses established due process,
they have also provoked controversy.
d.) Crowd psychology
OTHER IRRATIONAL VALUES
e. Groupthink
> type of thought exhibited by group
members who try to minimize conflict
and reach consensus without critically
testing, analyzing, and evaluating
ideas.
e.) Groupthink
f.) Psychological denial

“Don’t
worry, it
won’t
collapse,
again..”
OTHER IRRATIONAL VALUES
f. Psychological denial
> a defense mechanism in which a
person is faced with a fact that is too
painful to accept and rejects it instead,
insisting that it is not true despite what
may be overwhelming evidence..
IV. Failure to Solve a Problem
A. Reasons

1. The problems may be beyond our

present capacities to solve.

a.) due to lack of technology

b.) due to lack of funds
c.) "too little, too late“ - Procrastination
 Why then do some societies succeed
and others fail?
A. Differences among environments
rather than among societies
(Environmental determinism) 
B. Idiosyncrasies of particular
individuals
Cases: a, b,… x, y,…z
C. Crisis management by decision-
makers/leaders
Kennedy
Tokugawa Shogun
Joaquin Balaguer
Tikopian Chiefs
Konrad Adenauer
D. Proper selection of core values to be
upheld or to be given up by nations.
• 1. premature sense of ostensible unanimity
• 2. suppression of personal doubts
• 3. expression of contrary views
 allow discussions to be freewheeling
thinking skeptically
Positive Values

occasionally leave the room to avoid overly

influencing the discussion himself

subgroups should meet separately (organized and

specialized meeting)
Norway
Easter Island
Haiti
 Fin…

Gracias!!!