The curious place of famine in world

population history
1. What is famine?
2. Famine: Malthus’s “perfect” positive check?
3. Why was the Irish potato famine so unusual?
4. How do modern famines differ from historical
ones?
5. The future of famine vs. other health risks.
 Bibliography on famine
• Dyson, Tim and Corma O Grada (eds.) Famine
Demography (2002)
• Maharatna, Arup. The Demography of Famines (1996).
• Livi Bacci, Massimo. Population and Nutrition (1991).
• Walter, J. and R. Schofield (eds.) Famine, Disease and
the Social Order in Early Modern Society (1989)
• Arnold, D. Famine, Social Crisis and Historical Change
(1988).
• Vaughan, M. Story of an African Famine (1987).
• Mokyr, Joel. Why Ireland Starved (1985).
• Appleby, A.B. Famine in Tudor and Stuart England
(1978).
Ancient “Mexico”
1
rabbit
(1454):
“a
great
hunger
killed
many
of the
people”
 1 rabbit (1454):
“a great hunger killed many of the people”
--Ancient Mexico
(not a “paradise”!)

• Famines in 1446, and 1450-1455, caused great

hardship, including widespread human sacrifice,
a sharp rise in slavery, and extreme mortality.
• 1454:
• “People died in the open, the youth had wrinkled skin
like the elderly, and buzzards fed on human corpses.”
• Men “sold their families, their children one by one, for
a bit of corn and two tamales, and for the wife, one
tamale, and finished by selling themselves, leaving the
province of Hetoquaro deserted.”
 1. What is famine? Classic, modern
and customary definitions
• Classic definition:
• “a state of extreme hunger suffered by the population
of a region as a result of the failure of the accustomed
food supply”
• Modern definition (or a definition for modern
times?):
• Amartya Sen (Noble prize for economics, 1998):
famine is a question of food ownership, not supply—a
question of entitlement not availability.
• A failure of governance and distribution, not
production?
 What is famine? customary
definition (Chad, 1990s)
• “We have suffered four major famines during my
lifetime.
• “The first was called Amzaytone, meaning ‘the time we sold
our necklaces,’ in the 1950s.
• “The second, about ten years later was El Harigue, ‘the year
when everything burnt,’ when our crops shrivelled in the heat
of the sun.
• “The third, in 1982, was Alchouil, ‘the year of the sack,’ when
traders came with sacks of millet for us to buy.
• “Finally, in 1985, the big famine came upon us. We called this
Laitche, meaning ‘the year when everyone fled from the area.’”
 Major famines in modern times

• China, Great Leap Forward, 1958-61: 14-30

million excess deaths
• Bengal (India), 1943: 3 million (many due to
malaria)
• Sahel, 1970-74: ¼ million
• Bangladesh, 1974-5: 1.5 million
• Ireland, 1846-50: 1-1.5 million
 2. Famine: Malthus’s “perfect”
positive check?—or not??
• Famine tends to be weather-related or politically
induced, rather than due to population out-
stripping food supply
• Famine in the past was limited in its geographical
expanse (small regions instead of large ones)
• Famine is not an effective regulator of
demographic growth
• Consider impacts on: mortality, fertility, migration,
family, and population structure (next slide).
 2. Famine: Malthus’s “perfect”
positive check?—not!!
• Famine is not an effective regulator of demographic
growth
• Mortality may not be high (<20%) compared with epidemics
(>20%), and tends to be concentrated among the young and
old
• Fertility: lost births are quickly replaced
• Migration: an effective response—does not constitute
demographic loss
• Historically, families are quickly reconstituted—a marriage
boom follows; cultural taboos relaxed
• Age structure effects  productive age groups survive best
 China: Famine induced “birth dearth”
(1958-61) followed by baby boomlet (1962-3):
~30 million lost births
Relatively stable fertility to 1950
Fertility transition occurred very rapidly

6
Total Fertility Rate

1960 1970 1980

0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
year
China: Total fertility rate
 China’s
great
famine
1958-1961
etched into
the
population
pyramid
(1982)
15-30
million
excess
deaths
 3. Why was the Irish potato famine
so unusual?
• The greatest in 19th century Europe
• Catastrophic reduction in food supply
• Substantial, sustained shift in demography: mortality, fertility,
population decline (8.2m 1841 to 4.5 in 1901) , emigration (1.5
million in a decade), marriage (mean age rose 4 years; never
marrying increased to 20%).
• Malthusian positive check?
• Not precipitated by man (war, governance), but by a fungus
• Underlying demography--early marriage, high growth rate—
and mono-crop dependence on potato led to precarious balance
• Poverty was the big killer—few died of starvation (10%);
most died of DDG (dysentery, diarrhea, and
gastroenteritis) or fever (infectious disease)
 4. How do modern famines differ
from historical ones?
• Demographic impacts:
• Excess mortality rates: much greater in the past, than
today (infections are controlled; epidemics prevented)
• Birth effects: more pronounced in the past
• Migration: less widespread in the past
• Marriage: quick reconstruction of families, slowed
• Causes, nature or man?
• Then: real dearth with inadequate transportation
• Now: induced dearth due to war, mal-goverance
 5. The future of famine vs. other
health risks.
• Widely predicted famines of 20th century did not
materialize
• The biggest 20th century famines were due to
collectivization efforts: Ukraine 1932-3, China 1958-
61, Vietnam 1956, Ethiopia 1980.
• As population growth slows, future famines are
unlikely—except due to war and failure of
international assistance
• “Famine” captures the imagination, but water-
borne diseases cause many, many more deaths
End