Geo-Political

Environment
Pushkar Bajracharya
Concept

 Geopolitics is the study of the effects of geography on politics,

international relations and activities in all spheres of arenas emanating
therefrom.
 Geopolitics is a method of studying foreign policy to understand, explain and
predict international political behavior and relations through geographical
location and perspective.
 These include location, climate, topography, demography, and
natural resources.
Importance

 Geopolitics strongly influences business, commerce, international trade and

economic relations.
 Economic interests and factors also influence geopolitics.
 Wars and conflicts both hot and cold are the result of geopolitical factors that
have immense impact on all facets of human life.
 Infrastructural investments and development are increasingly influenced by
geopolitical factors.
 FDI also is being influenced strongly by geopolitical factors.
Mahan's framework on Sea Power

He emphasized that strategic locations and naval power were conducive to

control over the sea.
 Advantageous geographical position;
 Serviceable coastlines, abundant natural resources, and favorable climate;
 Extent of territory
 Population large enough to defend its territory;
 Society with an aptitude for the sea and commercial enterprise; and
 Government with the influence and inclination to dominate the sea.
 
Sir Halford Mackinder’ Heartland Theory

 The Heartland
 The Rimland an intermediate region lying between the Heartland and the
marginal sea powers and
 The Offshore Islands & Continents.
Lacoste’s proposal

Every conflict (both local or global) can be considered from a perspective

grounded in three assumptions:
 Representation: Each group or individuals is the product of an education and
is characterized by specific representations of the world or others groups or
individuals.
 Diachronie. Conducting an historical analysis confronting "long periods" and
short periods as the prominent French historian Fernand Braudel suggested.
 Diatopie: Conducting a cartographic survey through a multiscale mapping.
 
Overview of geopolitical situation in the past and
the present

 The very emergence, growth or decline of nation states is shaped by

geography, the land, the sea, the rivers, the mountains, the deserts and
similar other factors.
 The Great Himalayas divided the Chinese and Indian civilizations resulting not
only their distinctive culture, language and livelihood but also the growth of
nation states
 Egyptian and Mesopotamian civilizations contributed to the emergence and
growth of Greek and Latin civilizations spreading to Europe due to proximity
 Growth of international trade
 Most of the settlements in the world grew around the coastal areas or around
rivers
Overview of geopolitical situation in the past and
the present..

 The industrial revolution contributed to massive concentration of wealth

 Many of the wars, conflicts and diplomatic tiffs can be explained by
geopolitical factors
 Some of the major failures in these attempts also could be explained by
geopolitical factors.
 Mongols’ attempt in Europe and in the south towards India could not be
sustained due to geopolitical factors.
 Napoleon’s failure even before the Waterloo could be explained by his
ambitious raid to Russia
 Inability to anything to Saudi Arabia on Khasoggi case despite rhetoric is due
to its ability to cause huge impacts with its oil resources.
Overview of geopolitical situation in the past and
the present..

 The working and non-working of economic unions and efforts can also be
explained by geopolitical factors
 The demographic transformation is also to a lot of extent explained by the
geopolitical factors.
 Thus, there are adequate evidences of the role geopolitical is playing in every
aspect of human life.
Recent trends and prospects

 Globalization
 Cold war, uni-polarity to multi polarity
 China’s leverage
 Germany’s evolving position in Europe
 Britain is trying to balance national control and regional integration.
 Saudi Arabia is strongly emerging as the regional power
David Law (2018) envisages three
possible outcomes
 One is that the current Western-dominated paradigm manages to overcome
its current weaknesses and disunity
 A second possible outcome has the challengers to the Western-led paradigm -
primarily, but not exclusively, Russia and China - succeed in taking advantage
of its contradictions,
 A third possible outcome resembles the second, but with one crucial
difference. The rise of the multi-polarists turns violent, characterized by
spiraling patterns of conflict that encompass ever more regions of the world.
Law (2018)’s five drivers

 The first factor concerns the economic viability of the main protagonists -
whether their economic model is adequate to create wealth to maintain their
programmes of hard and soft power.
 The second factor is whether these states will succeed in reducing the
inequality gap among their citizens..
 The third factor has to do with the competing countries’ governance capacity.
 There is the possibility of a military breakthrough
 Finally, the wild card factor is how key states in the international community
will address the growing environmental challenges.
Possible trends

 Emerging markets will dominate global economy

 Growth of strong nationalism shadowing globalization
 Major economic powers leading smaller groups
 Emergence of totally new economic and political groupings based on their
influence area or hinterlands.
 Continuation of status quo however with higher conflicts and chaos.
 
Nepal and Geopolitics

 Nepal’s emergence as a nation state

 Nepal always being an independent nation
 landlocked country
 Significant c
 Concentration of trade with India and the socio cultural relations
 settlements and economic activities
 Facilities have to reach the people but cost and other imperatives must be
considered while doing so.
Future prospect

 largest economic region

 Two small nation states Nepal and Bhutan and a few in the periphery for
example Afghanistan, Myanmar, Laos etc will be regions of envy for many to
gain a foothold in the area of prosperity.
 The strategic importance in a few decades is going to be enormous.
 But it should be cautious enough not to miss the bandwagon in the severe
competition that would ensue as a result of the transformation.