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GEOPOLITICS
Report on the Politics in the Indian Ocean
a. Introduction.
b. What is Geopolitics?
c. Inter-Regional Rivalries.
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Introduction
1. Indian Ocean Region is the third largest sea in the world and possesses vital sea lines of
transport that transports one third of the world’s trade. It has a relation to the great historical voyages
and invasions that explains the importance of it what has long been clear. IOR and Geopolitics are two
abiding terms that are being used in the international politics throughout. At present, we are at a
transitional period where geopolitical power is shifting from the Atlantic and Pacific to Indian Ocean,
policy-makers of all great countries ought to pay their close attention to the maritime region
between the Atlantic and Pacific that is the Indian Ocean Region. Therefore, it is timely, important to
look why and what significance made them to rely on the so-called Great Connector that stretches from
the Cape of Good Hope from far south, the Gulf of Suez in the west and the Strait of Malacca in East.
The strategic choke points mentioned above are becoming increasingly packed with cargo ships, oil
tankers and patrolling navy vessels. International Actors such as the EU and its member states, China,
India, the United States, Japan and Australia are steadily increasing their naval presence and their
military capabilities in the Indian Ocean and in various strategic positions along its rim. Other than that,
smaller naval powers such as Pakistan, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea are also expanding their
activities in the region. The rising economies of East Asia, competition among regional powers, clash and
sphere of influence of super and greater powers over the region reflect the importance and strategic
importance in the IOR.
2. The race to acquire more and more purchasing power and need to secure increasing energy
needs are the same outcomes that can be seen on the surface but many are submerged and yet to
appear. Therefore, the study is intent to focus on the two main variables. First, what is geopolitics and
the nature of its application? Second, significance of the Indian Ocean region. At the end, the study
interrelates the Geopolitics and IOR together to derive outcomes of the study and suggest analytical
lessons learnt that are subjected to challenge and open for discussion with the distinguish audience.
What is Geopolitics?
3. Geopolitics derived (from Greek ge "earth, land" and politik "politics") is the discipline to study
of the effects of geography both human and physical on international politics and
international relations. Geopolitics is a method of studying foreign policy to
understand, explain and predict international political behaviour through
geographical variables. Further, it includes area studies, climate, topography,
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demography, natural resources, and applied science of the region being evaluated. In other terms,
Geopolitics focuses on political power in relation to geographic space. In
particular, territorial waters and land territory in correlation together with diplomatic
history. Academically, geopolitics analyses history and social science with
reference to geography in relation to politics. Outside of academia, geopolitical
prediction and foresee are offered by a variety of groups including non-profit groups as well as for-
profit institutions for various reasons.
4. Further, the area of study on the geopolitics includes relations between the interests of
international political actors, their interests focused to an area, space, geographical
element or ways, relations that create a geopolitical system. "Critical geopolitics"
deconstructs classical geopolitical theories, by showing their political/ideological
functions for great powers during and after the age of imperialism. The term has been however used to
describe a broad spectrum of ideas, from "a
synonym for international relations, social, political and historical phenomena" to
various pseudo-scientific theories of historical and geographic determinism.
5. IOR at present is at the threshold of instability and under combustion of conflict of the
underground. Despite the traditional sphere of influence, it has become a ground for competition of
regional powers between China and India. These desires are being flipped up with recent development
of the deep water ports in the region and the increment of naval patrols. However, the prediction for
military conflict remains low, escalated activities and rhetoric could endanger the stability of the region
and the same can later lead to many conflicts in the region. Other than the IOR being a conduit for
commerce, it is a home to billions of people and frequently vulnerable to natural disasters. Two of the
most shattering natural disasters happened in 2004 Tsunami and Cyclone Nargis in 2008 had cost
hundred thousands of lives in the IOR. Therefore, it is important to research into finding avenues
available for preserving the region from conflicts and to maintain the stability of the region by
addressing issues such as freedom of navigation, preserving the natural resources, prevention and relief
from natural disasters, combatting traditional and non-traditional threats while managing international
naval competitions.
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Figure 1: Significance of the Indian Ocean.
6. The Strategic environment of the Indian Ocean region can be described in six words: strategic
competition, strategic alliances and strategic dilemma which are the driving factors for the conflicts in the
region and the stability (Colombage J, 2016). Strategic competition is all about the contest for power
and influence among major powers both inside and out of the region. This situation creates the countries
in the region to have alliances by the smaller powers towards major powers based on number of
motives.
7. In this situation, there are strategic convergences of some major powers against others. This
situation results the strategic dilemma for smaller, lesser powerful countries as they are often forced to
choose between major powers. Therefore, this study focuses different actors in the IOR and their interest
over the region. These actors have adopted different strategies based on their interests to achieve
strategic interests, thus creates a new dynamic situation in the region.
8. Even though USA does not possess residential rights of the IOR much, its influence on regional
security dynamics has been significant. USA therefore continues to enjoy its sphere of influence over the
region to maintain the region in their favor and aspiration. The USA interest over IOR is nothing but to
do all possible to stop the rise of China as a major power which in another way is the most important
occurrence in the Indian Ocean region at present. Pivot to the Pacific? The Obama Administration’s
“Rebalancing” Towards Asia reports clearly expresses the USA interest over Asian region as
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"strengthening bilateral security alliances; deepening our working relationships with emerging powers,
including with China; engaging with regional multilateral institutions; expanding trade and investment;
forging a broad-based military presence; and advancing democracy and human rights." Other than the
oil security of the oil concerns USA also alarms its trade relationship with Asia and not to experience any
form of disturbance to its 20 per cent export and import trade within the South and South East Asian
region.
9. According to the IMF predictions of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) China has become the second
strongest economy in the world. Further, it is predicted that China keeps to continue its speedy growth,
GDP to reach US $ 45 trillion in 2040. USA’s will reach the same US $ 39 trillion, India’s US $ 16
trillion, South Korea, Germany, Japan and the UK’s GDP between US$ 4-7 trillion. Other emerging
economies like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia to be within the top in according to the IMF analysis.
Therefore, USA has a clear interest in the freedom of navigation, conflict free IOR and to the
maintenance of their sphere of influence through the regional powers.
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Figure 2: Projected Growth Profiles for Major Econimies.
10. The IOR has also played a significant role in the context of enjoying its super power status and
expedition capability. Still most of the countries around the region accept USA as a security guarantor.
Apparently, this situation welcomed USA to maintained high levels of military and diplomatic affairs in
the region. Both US CENTCOM and PACOM are active than before in Indian littoral countries. Therefore,
USA keeps view of the security situation and issues concerning global peace and continues to maintain a
significant naval presence in Bahrain, Djibouti and Diego Garcia.
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12. India on the other hand as a major player in the region has also embarked on the ambitious
multi-million-dollar Sagar Mala development project to develop its ports along the eastern and western
coasts consistent with the name of the project, which is Security and Growth for All in the Region
(SAGAR). Further, both India and Japan together have commenced the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor
(AAGC), an economic cooperation agreement between the governments of India and Japan to connect
Asia with Africa by using Japanese technology and Indian influence in that region.
Figure 4 : Major, Non Major and porposed CEZ under Sagaramala Initiation
Sourse: https://satyavijayi.com/modi-government-execute
13. Both India and China have developed initiatives to boost infrastructure development and to
strength the diplomatic ties in the region. However, it is a least economically integrated region as
described by the World Bank. Competition between Beijing and New Delhi is not necessarily overt, but
each country is seeking to strengthen ties with smaller regional states to secure their respective security
and economic interests.
Inter-Regional Rivalries
14. It is evident that regional cooperation in the form of SAARC is not moving forward as
anticipated, mainly due to the rivalry between India and Pakistan. The border issues, competition for
naval power dominance, nuclear race and suspicious mentality provide the “no negotiation phenomena”
between these two countries. The situation created frequent and arbitrary cancelation of the summit
without in recent future. Even the 19th SAARC Summit planned in Islamabad could not be held. This
situation equally reflects in the BIMSTEC also other than the SARRC. Therefore, many scholars and
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experts say “South Asia is the least integrated region due to rivalries among its nations.”
16. The strategic threat symmetry/ perceptions in the IOR can be broadly classified as Traditional &
Non-traditional. Traditional Threats can be first identified as Nation-State Conflicts. The region has been
home to conventional/ non-conventional armed conflicts from time to time. Such wars will invariably spill-
over to the seas and may take form of ‘trade warfare’, ‘amphibious warfare’, ‘littoral warfare' etc.
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Second, Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). IOR is home to two most recent nuclear
powers. The Ocean is also used by nations to ship/ transfer/ smuggle WMD. Presence of non-state
actors in the region makes it a dangerous proposition. Rivalry between China and India as well as India
and Pakistan may drive an increase in such activity in the ocean. Third, Security of SLOCs. They are the
‘Life Lines’ of the nations of not only in the IOR but the entire world. Any closure/ interdiction/ blockade
or threat of resorting to such means can easily be escalated. Lastly, Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)/
Maritime Boundary Issues. South China Sea in the Pacific is the 'anti chamber’ of the Indian Ocean. It is a
‘flash point’ where six countries are currently embroiled in territorial/EEZ disputes. If it flares up, ripples
will be felt in the IOR. India has interests pertaining to freedom of navigation and South China Sea is
also crucial for India’s ‘Look East Policy’. India’s maritime border disputes with Pakistan too are yet to be
settled.
17. Non Traditional/ Asymmetric also diverse in nature. First, threat to security posed by Climate
Change. The region is most vulnerable to climate change/ global warming (of the 16 countries found to
be at extreme risk, 10 are from Asia, with Bangladesh rated as the country most at risk) and thereby
potential accelerant of de-stabilisation, conflict and a security threat. Secondly, climate change is a
‘Threat Multiplier’ and will induce 50 million environmental refugees by 2020, as predicted by UN.
Thirdly, maritime Terrorism. IOR is the epicentre of Maritime Terrorism including Narco-terrorism. This
is a major and deep rooted destabilising problem in the IOR with many quasi and non-state actors
involved. Fourthly, transnational Crimes. IOR is the hot bed of transnational crimes like gun running,
smuggling, human trafficking, money laundering, etc. In the last decade or so, piracy has proved to be a
major security issue in the IOR. Last, Disasters/ Humanitarian Assistance & Relief. IOR is the locus of 70%
of the world’s natural disasters. Bangladesh is the world’s most flood prone country. A number of factors
like tsunamis and cyclones also mar the states in the region.
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19. Piracy on the other hand is the predominant issue in the maritime security in the IOR. It’s a clear
threat to Global Shipping Industry. There is a clear expansion of Pirates at present and it is kept in
growing according to many security analyses. Incidents are constantly happening in the waters off
Somalia and has turned a hotspot in the region. Specially, pirates seek to target oil tankers passing
through Malacca Strait, high jack the ships for black market selling of Goods captured and use these
modus operands as money making adventures.
20. IOR is the epicentre of Maritime Terrorism including narcotic-terrorism. This is a major and deep
rooted destabilising problem in the IOR with many quasi and non-state actors involved. Terrorism is a
global phenomenon that becomes a dominant threat to world peace in the 21 st century. Still there is a
lack of immunity to the menace of terrorism that demands a unity of effort by all littoral states in the IOR
should think of. Attack on the USS Cole (US Navy ship), attack on the SS Limburg (Very Large Crude
Carrier), attack on the Super Ferry and use of maritime routes for Mumbai attack are the recent
examples that happened in the region.
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Figure 5: Global Deaths from Terrorism.
21. Human Smuggling is a major issue in the IOR where 65.3 million individuals forcibly displaced
worldwide and Sri Lanka was considered as a ‘source country’ for that. The LTTE was the main
contributor to blame. At present, LTTE has gone but human smuggling operations are happening
more than before. One of the key destinations these operations is to Australia. Other than that illegal
trade is also a major issue where LTTE got huge revenue for their benefits. However, these operations
are happening yet. This situation gives some insights to countries in the IOR to work for a joint mechanism
to couther these issues together.
22. Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing is one of the main non-traditional issues that
countries in the IOR especially Sri Lanka is facing today. It has a direct impact on traditional military
security and human security and direct link to transnational maritime crime. Moreover, a link to illegal
trafficking of drugs and small arms for terrorist groups.
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carries 3,000 vessels (oil tankers and fishing boat). On an average day 14 tankers carrying 17 million
barrels of crude oil and almost 2 million barrels of petroleum products pass out.
24. Strait of Malacca contains almost 50,000 vessels to move through the passage every year and
carries 15 million barrels per day. It has accounted for approximately 30 per cent of the world’s trade.
Other than that around 80 percent of the petroleum imported by China, Japan, South Korea and
Taiwan. As Asia-Pacific is growing there is a 2.8 percent demand of oil. BAB-EL-MANDEB, is the third
most busiest and important waterway and passes 3.3 million barrels of oil from the Persian Gulf. The
Mozambique Channel is a highly strategic waterway especially for the African region, 30 percent of the
oil trade and almost 100 percent of South Africa’s maritime trades are sailing through it. However,
Mozambique Channel is being frequently attacks by Somali pirates.
26. It was only after the collapse of the ancient hydraulic civilization at the end of the Polonnaruwa
period that the country’s rulers began to pay greater attention to the economic possibilities of trade.
Exports of spices, particularly cinnamon, became an increasingly lucrative activity. During the period
13th-15th centuries, Sri Lanka’s position as a trade hub on the East-West maritime route had been
established, as had its position as a gateway to India. Sri Lanka had direct commercial links with
Malacca, and also with regions in India such as Gujarat and Bengal.
27. During the colonial rule by the Portuguese, Dutch and lastly the English, the volume of foreign
trade expanded. The tea trade which was started by the British still plays a significant role in the Sri
Lankan economy. However, in the last 500 years the Indian Ocean region lost its geo political and geo
economic relevance; first to colonial dictates and in thereafter post-colonial cold war concerns.
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STRATEGIC CONCERNS OF SRI LANKA ON THE
INDIAN OCEAN REGION
30. Sri Lanka has been blessed with discovering oil resources in the Indian Ocean region especially
in the Mannar Basin which could host for new economic opportunities in future. As of now, there have
been no focused investigations of gas hydrate potentials of Sri Lankan off-shores. It is also a
responsibility of the Navy to assist these developments.
31. The complexity of the Strategic environment is merely to provide a great opportunity for the
Navy to co-ordinate maritime operations with the other maritime nations regionally and beyond
especially with India, United States, United Kingdom and China whose having great concern to the area.
Sri Lanka should assist these nations in maritime operating in close quarters which will provide greater
opportunities in developing.
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32. Now, for the first time in five centuries, global economic balance of power is once again shifting
towards Asia. It is estimated that by 2030, Asia will surpass North America and Europe combined in
global power based on GDP, population size, military spending and technological investments. The
global financial system is also moving away, albeit slowly, from the dollar dominated international
system to a more multi-currency system. New consumer markets are emerging all across Asia and the
Asian middle class is expanding rapidly. Of the four largest economies of the world; US, China, Japan
and India, three are located in Asia. Thus, Sri Lanka’s situation in the nautical corridor between the East
and West is of importance not only from a geostrategic perspective, but also from maritime economics
and security perspectives.
33. The Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in the future of both China and India. The sea routes
through the Indian Ocean are very important to China's and India’s maritime trade and energy
supply. Therefore, both countries will have to respect each other’s legitimate interests to ensure that their
future prospects are not affected in the long term. No single power or a coalition will be able to maintain
peace and stability on their own in the Indian Ocean. In capacity terms also, No country is capable of
handling the maritime security threats and challenges in isolation, no matter how advanced and
developed it might be. In addition, it is preferable that the region continues its historical multi-polar
characteristic and prevents a spill over of tension from other regions. In such a background, all maritime
nations have a role to play in ensuring the overall balance of strategic weight. Smaller nations such as
Sri Lanka, even with comparatively limited maritime resources can become an integral element of
maritime security in the region. It is our view that the Indian Ocean is in need of a mutually benefiting
security architecture established on a multilateral basis. Be that as it may, Sri Lanka remains committed
to preventing international terrorism, transnational crimes and people smuggling in the seas around our
country. Supplementing the blue water capability of the Sri Lanka Navy and the consolidation of the Sri
Lanka Coast Guard are areas of concern for our Government. We are also reviewing the possibilities of
integrating the capabilities of the Navy and the Air Force.
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India and Sri Lanka
34. India and Sri Lanka hope to finalize an Economic Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) by
2017. The ETCA will enhance the scope of our existing Indian Sri Lanka FTA to extend free movement of
goods and services with the added emphasis of cooperation in the development of technology and in
investments.
37. We are also negotiating a FTA with Singapore. Singapore already has a Comprehensive
Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with India. Therefore, we believe that by next year the
Singapore-India (CEPA), the Indo-Lanka ETCA and the Sri Lanka-Singapore FTA will enable the southern
sub region of South Asia and Singapore to establish a tripartite arrangement for trade and investments.
In conclusion, I would like to point out that those of us who are geographically located in the Indian
Ocean region have a primary interest in the security of the Indian Ocean, which is directly linked to our
economies. Therefore, managing competition and strengthening cooperation would be essential given
both these economic and strategic security factors which have a direct impact on the future of this region.
There will always be tension, such as between large countries and their smaller neighbours. However, the
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countries in the Indian Ocean region have more in common in terms of history, culture and religion, than
what sets us apart. We believe that the Indian Ocean Region now facing an extraordinary opportunity
to create something new in the global context and something historically uniquely beneficial to its
people.
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unity of effort for joint security mechanism. Integrated intelligence Sharing and Integrated Space and
Cyber Security Organisations are the modern measures that can support the joint security strategies in
the region. This paves the way to implement common cause missions for maintaining peace and order in
the IOR.
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References
1. Prabakar WL (2016), Growth of Naval Power in the Indian Ocean: Dynamics and Transformation,
1 Edn, National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi.
2. Michel Davis and Sticklor Russel (2012), Indian Ocean Rising: Maritime Security and Policy
Challenges, Stimson, Washington DC.
3. The Hague Institute for Global Justice (2014), Geopolitics and Maritime Security in the Indian
Ocean: What Role for the Europium Unions?, Clingendel, Netherlands.
4. Kaplan D Robert (2011), Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future o Cambridge University
Press f American Power, Random House Trade Paperback, USA.
5. Bishara FA (2017), A sea of Debt: Law and Economic Life in the Western Indian Ocean, 1780–
1950, Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom.
6. Mathew Johan (2015), Margins of the Market: Trafficking and Capitalism across the Arabian Sea,
California World History Library, USA.
7. Pinnacle (2017), Indian Ocean Region Stability, Army Training Command Press, Indian Army.
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Author
Major Dhanushak Rodrigo is an 3rd year undergraduates at Faculty of Law, General Sir
John Kotelawala Defence University. He obtained his first degree with 2nd class
honour on BSc (Military Studies) from Sabaragamuwa University of Sri Lanka(SUSL).
Further, he holds two masters namely MSc (Defence and Strategic Studies) from KDU
and MSc (Military Science) from Nanjing Army Command College, China. Further, He
had completed his staff course at Defence Services Command and Collage, Batalanda
(course no:07) and became second in order of merit of the course and able complete
his foreign passed staff collage course in China with a distinction. Further, he
completed his Post Graduate Diploma in International Relation at Bandaranaike
Centre for International Studies (BCIS) and also completed a Diploma in English at
SUSL. His research areas of interests are Military Diplomacy, Military Doctrine,
Spectrum of Warfare, Public International Law and Military Law. Further he obtained
Rana Sura Padakkama (RSP) for his act of bravery in the face of enemy during last
humanitarian operation.
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