The comparsion of government quarantine policies from different countries (U.S.
and China)
and their effects on the number of positive cases in COVID-19 
疫情期間（ COVID-19 ）不同國家（美國和中國）政府隔離政策的差異性研究
Yang Qu, Yen shin Chang | yqu4@masonlive.gnu.edu, ychang21@masonlive.gmu.edu
Volgenau School of Engineering | George Mason University
RESEARCH QUESTION The SEIR Model
• How might the quarantine policies of government from   In the several studies we read, we found that the most widely used to the number of positive cases
different countries (U.S. and China) impact the number of
positive cases in COVID-19?
Introduction
As Covid-19 continues to impact societies in multiple ways, we
think that it is important to know how the quarantine policies of
government from the U.S., and China affect the number of
positive cases in COVID-19. However, the previous research of
this field mostly focused on several reports, policy trackers,
preprints and working papers that exist on Covid-19 beyond
what could be summarized in one single article. To fill this gap in
the literature, we propose a comparative analysis of the U.S. and
China. The methodology of our study is to compare and analyze
the results of the policies made during the pandemic by the
governments of different regions by using the result of SEIR
model, references many papers and finally draws a conclusion
that government intervention can play a positive role in
preventing epidemics. The purpose is to help the government
and policy makers formulate effective prevention plans, and also
help the public to understand the importance of cooperating
with prevention policies and the significant results that can be
achieved after measures are taken.
People / million
People / million
the susceptible population
the exposed population
the infected population
the recovered population
Fig.2 Trend of epidemic situation under travel restrictions
(Geng, H., Xu, A., Wang, X., Zhang, Y., Yin, X., Ma, M., & Lv, J. (2020). Analysis
of the role of current prevention and control measures in the epidemic of new
Fig.1 Outbreak trend of COVID-19 after the implementation of unlimited
coronavirus based on SEIR model)
travel measures
The influence of the quarantine policies
infectious disease models are SI, Sir and SEIR models. In most of the
research, they use SEIR model because the coronavirus has a long
incubation period. According to Xu (2020), the study uses the SIER
dynamic model to predict the scale of this infectious disease and
then results obtained were very close to the real data. Although the
model does not further consider further measures by the
government and society, such as the transportation and deployment
of materials, vaccine research and development, it still shows that
government control has a huge impact on the development of the
epidemic, and reasonable intervention can effectively reduce the
number of people brought by the epidemic. Cao (2020) also use the
SEIR model on the analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei
Province. The research results confirm that the model is reliable in
the analysis of the spread of infectious diseases and can provide
certain theoretical support for making future epidemic intervention
decisions. In the same way, Anca (2020) use SEIR model to analyze
the current management strategy of the epidemic course (travel
bans, service closures and interruptions, social distancing) to
measure the best way of preventing the pandemic.
 
the susceptible population
the exposed population
the infected population
the recovered population
The quarantine policies made by governments have an effect on the
number of positive cases. Lee(2020) and Desson(2020)In their articles both
mentioned how government quarantine policies influence the situation of
the pandemic. Geng (2020) use SEIR to compare the situation that
suspension of work and school but no restrictions on quarantine and the
situation after quarantine policy in Wuhan (Fig1 & Fig2). He finds out that if
the policy only suspended the work and school but didn’t restrict travel and
quarantine, the pandemic will reach its peak near the end of February, and
the number of infections will far exceed the current situation. The adjusted
SEIR model results show that under strict control measures, the number of
active cases will reach a peak in 16-32 days (from early April to middle April
2020) after the initial date, when the number of cases reaches 100.
However, after the quarantine policy, the infection curve is significantly
smoother and slower, and the peaks of the latent(green) and infected
people(yellow) have been reduced by 45.71% and 29.90% respectively. In
addition, the SEIR model is also suitable for other kinds of global epidemic
simulation. 
 
CONCLUSION / FURTHER DISCUSSION
According to some previous research and the result of SEIR
model, we can clearly find out that relationship between
quarantine policies and the number of positive cases in COVID-19.
In this study, we make a literature review of the effect of
government quarantine policies on the number of positive cases in
COVID-19 and use the SEIR model to prove that the situation of
COVID-19 can be affected by different policies. Also, we compare
the differences between the quarantine policies of China and the
U.S. Thus, this study can provide information about the impact of
quarantine policies on the control and prevention of the pandemic.
Government control on the pandemic is an important way because
it has a huge impact on the development of the epidemic, and
reasonable intervention can effectively reduce the casualties and
economic losses caused by the epidemic. This conclusion may
provide hints for other governments or agencies and people who
live in the epidemic area to help them better prevent epidemics
and reduce the harm caused by diseases.
REFERENCES:
[1] Zachary Desson, Emmi Weller, Peter McMeekin, Mehdi Ammi, An analysis of the policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in France, Belgium, and Canada,Health Policy and
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