PROBABILITY

• Probability – refers to the study of

randomness and uncertainty of an outcome.
– Quantify the chances, or likelihood, associated
with various outcomes of an event.

0  P( A)  1
P ()  0
P( S )  1
 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES
• Classical Probability
• Additive Rule
• Mutually Exclusive Events
• Complementary Events
• Conditional Probability
• Multiplicative Rules
• Baye’s Rule (Theorem of Total Probability)
 Classical Probability
• If an experiment can result in any one of N
different equally likely outcomes, and if
exactly n of these outcomes correspond to
event A, then the probability of event A is

nA
P ( A) 
N
 Classical Probability
• A mixture of candies contains 6 mints, 4 toffees, and
2 chocolates. If a person makes a random selection
of one of these candies, find the probability of
getting (a) a mint, (b) a toffee, and (c) a chocolate.
6 1
P (min t )    0.50  50%
12 2
4 1
P (toffee)  
12 3
2 1
P (chocolate)  
12 6
 Classical Probability
• If a letter is chosen at random from the English
Alphabet, find the probability that the letter (a) is a
vowel, (b) is listed somewhere ahead of letter j , (c) is
listed somewhere after the letter g.
5
P(vowel ) 
26
9
P(aheadofj ) 
26
19
P(afterg ) 
26
 Additive Rule
• We shall use the symbol P(A U B) to denote
the probability of occurrence of events A or B.
• If A and B are any two events, then

P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)
 Additive Rule
• The probability that Paula passes Mathematics is
2/3, and the probability that she passes English is
4/9. If the probability of passing both subjects is ¼,
what is the probability that Paula will pass in either
subjects?
P( M )  2 / 3
P( E )  4 / 9
P( M  E )  1/ 4
P( M  E )  P( M )  P( E )  P( M  E )
2 4 1 31
P( M  E )      0.8611
3 9 4 36
 Additive Rule
• If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck of playing
cards, find the probability of getting an ace or a
spade.
P( A)  4 / 52
P( B )  13 / 52
P( A  B )  1/ 52
P( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )  P ( A  B )
4 13 1 16
P( A  B )      0.3077
52 52 52 52
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
• If A and B are mutually exclusive events

P( A  B )  P( A)  P( B)
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
• If the probabilities are 0.09, 0.15, 0.21, and 0.23,
respectively that a person purchasing a new
automobile will choose the color green, white, red or
blue, what is the probability that a given buyer will
purchase a new automobile that comes in one of
these colors?

P(G W  R  B )  0.09  0.15  0.21  0.23  0.68

 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
• If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will
service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 or more cars on any given
workday are 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10, and 0.07,
respectively, what is the probability that he will
service at least 5 cars on his next day at work?

P( x  5)  0.28  0.24  0.10  0.07  0.69

 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
• If A and A’ are complementary events, then

P ( A)  P ( A ')  1
 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
• If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will
service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 or more cars on any given
workday are 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10, and 0.07,
respectively, what is the probability that he will
service at least 5 cars on his next day at work?

P ( x  5)  1  P ( x  5)  1   P (3)  P(4) 
P ( x  5)  1  (0.12  0.19)  0.69
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
• The probability of an event B occurring when it is
known that some event A has occurred is called the
conditional probability. The symbol is usually read
‘the probability that B occurs given that A occurs’ or
simply ‘the probability of B, given A.’
P( A  B)
P ( B A) 
P ( A)
P ( B  A)
P( A B) 
P( B)
• The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on
time is 0.83; the probability that it arrives on time is 0.82; and
the probability that it departs and arrives on time is 0.78. Find
the probability that a plane
a. arrives on time given that it departed on time
b. departed on time given that it has arrived on time.

P( A  D ) 0.78
P( A D)    0.9398
P( D) 0.83
P( B  A) 0.78
P( A B)    0.9512
P( B) 0.82
• The probability that an automobile being filled with
gasoline also needs an oil change is 0.25; the
probability that it needs a new oil filter is 0.40; and
the probability that both the oil and the filter need
changing is 0.14. If the oil has to be changed, what is
the probability that a new oil filter is needed?

0.14
P( F C )   0.56
0.25