Professional Documents
Culture Documents
------ Redding
to Bakersfield: 447 miles
----- Sacramento to Fresno: 176 miles
Facts:
– The Central Valley: 1/3 is Valley Floor,
170,000 AF
Snowmelt
390,000 AF
130,000 AF
525,747 AF
26,000 CFS 520,823 AF
522,201 AF
2006 Operations - Forecasting Error
50% Forecast vs. Flood Volume
2006 Operations
Upper San Joaquin Basin Model (USAN)
• The USAN model was developed to
study re-operation of the upstream
reservoirs to enhance the Friant
Division water supply.
– Improve Friant Division operations
and enhance the water supply.
– Simulates Flood real-time data from
1896 to present.
– Used daily to produce short-term
reservoir operations with real-time
data (storage, deliveries, releases,
etc.)
• USAN uses a daily time step of
projected operations applied to
historic unimpaired flow data.
Upper San Joaquin Basin Model (USAN)
• USAN limitations:
– Operational decisions based on forecasts.
– Millerton Lake February 1st storage plus the February – July
unregulated flow forecast to determine the amount of water
available for deliveries each year.
– Difficult with flexibility to varying conditions or water years in
the volume of water available for diversion during snowmelts of
equal volume.
• (Distribution of snowmelt may cause variations in over 100,000 AF)
Climate Change in the Upper Basin
• Important effects to Friant
Operations:
– Changes in rainfall timing and
intensity
– Total snow and ice coverage
– A rise in ambient temperature
• Total snow accumulation in the
western U.S. has declined over the
period 1925-2000.
– Higher temperatures threaten to reduce accumulation up to 40%
in the Sierra Nevada.
• Climate change effects the watershed and operations at
Friant Dam, increasing the probability of a rain flood and
decreasing the magnitude of snowmelt flows.
Precipitation Trends
50
+1.55 inches
per ten years 43.9 43.8
42 42.4
41.5
40
40.2
39.5
2001-2008
2001-2009
38 38.68 in
36
34 34.5
32
30
1921-1930 1931-1940 1941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
Water Years
Summary
• The San Joaquin River has two major
runoff seasons
– November through March is
predominately rain
– April through July is predominately
snowmelt
• Snowmelt produces ~70% of annual
water supply
• Managing Friant Division’s Central Valley Project Water Supply
considers:
– The information needed to make operational decisions
– The speculative nature of some information (especially early in the
season)
– The importance of water supply to the end user
– The importance of providing protection from floods
• A mission that requires close communication and coordination with
many parties and a significant amount of professional judgment.
Typical Day at Millerton Lake
???
Questions?
Thank You
PowerPoint By:
Robert Campbell, Rufino Gonzalez