INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY ROORKEE

EXPLORATION OF INTEGRATION OF
SYSTEMS THINKING APPROACHES TO
ENERGY SECURITY SCENARIOS

AHN-700: Seminar; 15th April 2019

Guided by: Swatantra Kumar Karna

Dr. Rhythm Singh En. No: 18512019
Assistant professor M.Tech. , 1st year
Hydro and Renewable Energy Hydro and Renewable Energy
Department (HRED) Department (HRED)
OUTLINE

 Introduction
 Paradigms

 Systems Thinking

 Energy Security

 Literature Review

 Gaps Identified

 Conclusion

 References

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INTRODUCTION

Paradigm : The way of thinking that gives us the freedom to

identify root causes of problems and see new opportunities.

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INTRODUCTION PARADIGM

Analysis: Detailed examinations of elements or structure of something

Synthesis: The combination of components or elements to form a connected

whole

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INTRODUCTION SYSTEMS THINKING

 Elements + Functions + Interconnections = Systems

e.g. social system, energy system
 Any aggregate of elements without any particular
interconnection or function is NOT a system
 Provides a better way to understand physical system through
system “archetypes” and feedback loops.

 Modelling Software: Powersim, Vensim, Stella Professional

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INTRODUCTION SYSTEMS THINKING

Fig 1. Economic Capital with its Reinforcing Growth Loop Constrained

by Renewable Resource (Donella H. Meadows, 2009, p. 67)
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INTRODUCTION ENERGY SECURITY

 Availability of energy sources at an affordable price. (IEA )

 Short-term Energy Security:
 Ability to react to short-term supply-demand balance
 Requires short-term planning and action

 Long-term Energy Security:

 Timely investment to supply systems aligned with economic
developments and environmental needs
 Requires long term planning and policy

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INTRODUCTION ENERGY SECURITY

 Dimensions of Energy Security (Ang, Choong and Ng, 2015)

 Availability
 Infrastructure
 Energy Prices
 Societal Effects
 Environment
 Governance
 Energy Efficiency

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LITERATURE REVIEW

 Book by Meadows(Donella H. Meadows, 2009)

 In her book “Thinking in Systems-A Primer” mentioned about method
of system thinking from basics.
 Concept of system structure, system behavior, system’s response to
externalities, limitations, system traps and systems zoo.
 Finally suggestions for living in the world of systems as well as
primary model equations had been discussed

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LITERATURE REVIEW

 Research by Prambudia and Nakano (Prambudia and Nakano,

2012)
 Paper : Integrated Simulation Model for Energy Security Evaluation
 Model developed by using system dynamics
 Evaluation of Indonesia’s energy security
 Four dimensions considered: Availability, Affordability, Efficiency,
Acceptability
 Twelve indicators (e.g. Self-sufficiency , Import dependence, subsidy,
energy intensity etc.) were considered
 Three policy scenario were considered: BAU (business-as-usual),
PROD (high fossil energy production), SUB (gradual subsidy
elimination)
 SUB scenario was considered favorable

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LITERATURE REVIEW

 Research by Augustis et.al. (Augutis et al., 2017)

 Paper: Integrated Energy Security Assessment
 Energy security level is evaluated within two stages

Fig 2. Methodology Flowchart (Augutis et al., 2017)

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LITERATURE REVIEW

 Research by Augustis et.al. (Augutis et al., 2017) contd….

 Two alternatives – the update of energy security level by using
Bayesian method and solution of a system of random differential
equations – were proposed in this paper for the forecasting of energy
security level
 Applied for Lithuania for “Lithuanian National Energy Strategy”
 Four scenarios analyzed:
 Baseline (Business as usual) scenario
 Synchronization (to European Continental Network)
 Restriction (self-generate 50 % of electricity)
 GIPL(Gas Interconnection Poland-Lithuania) and NPP(New Nuclear
Power Plant)
 Three indicators were investigated

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LITERATURE REVIEW

 Report by Water and Energy Commission Secretariat

(WECS), Nepal (Water and Energy Commission Secretariat WECS, 2013)
 Nepal’s Energy Sector Vision 2050 A.D.
 Report : Electricity Demand Forecast Report 2015-2040
 Following the past GDP growth trend, 3,384 MW installed capacity is required in
2020
 Policy intervention scenario, it would be 6,621 MW
 15,000 MW required by 2030 A.D.
 35,000 MW required by 2040 A.D.

 Both report uses IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency)’s,

MAED (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand) Approach for
electricity demand forecast

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LITERATURE REVIEW

 Study by Investment Board, Nepal (IBN Government of Nepal, 2011)

 Report : Energy Mix and Electricity Demand Forecast Study
 Scenarios of different GDP growth and sectoral contribution to the
GDP had been taken
 Base case scenario is also considered
 Energy demand in 2030 is forecasted as 16.54 Gwyr
 Required Installed capacity to meet the demand 10,092 MW
 Uses IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency)’s, MAED (Model for
Analysis of Energy Demand) Approach for electricity demand
forecast

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LITERATURE REVIEW

S.N Published Authors Title Remarks

date
1 2009 Donella H. Meadows Thinking in Systems Book related to systems thinking approaches

2 2009 Kruyt et.al. Indicators for energy security TIMER Model has been used for scenario analysis

3 2010 Prambudia and Nakano Scenario Analysis of Indonesia’s Energy Systems approach , Vensim software
Security by using a System-Dynamics
Approach

4 2012 Prambudia and Nakano Integrated Simulation Model for Energy System Dynamics
Security Evaluation

5 2013 Water and Energy Nepal's Energy Sector Vision 2050 MAED (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand), IAEA
Commission
Secretariat, Nepal

6 2013 Pahwa et.al. Energy Security Models- A Critical Review Confined to OIL Security for India it uses MOSE (IEA) for analysis
and Applicability in Indian Context

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LITERATURE REVIEW

7 2013 Najjar A System Dynamics Simulation Model for Considering 7 sectors for energy demand as well as six scenarios,
Forecasting Energy Demand in Pueblo System Dynamics (Vensim) Software have been used
County

8 2014 Gracceva and A systemic approach to accessing energy ETSAP-TIAM

Zeniewski security in a low-carbon EU energy system

9 2014 Mansson et.al. Accessing energy security: an overview of Broad range of methodologies has been classified in a framework
commonly used methodologies

10 2014 Ang et.al. energy security: definitions, dimensions and Research based on studying different papers
indexes

11 2016 Pouye and Moumouni A System Dynamic Model of a Distributed Confined to Solar , Wind and Distributed generation uses System
Generation for Energy Security in Niamey Dynamics (STELLA PROFESSIONAL 1.4)

12 2016 Investment Board of Energy Mix and Electricity Demand Forecast MAED (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand), IAEA
Nepal Study

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LITERATURE REVIEW

13 2016 Glynn et.al. Energy security assessment methods: Quantifying the security co- Supply Demand Index Method and Scenario Analysis by Irish TIMES Method
benefits of decarbonizing the Irish Energy System

14 2017 Cox Assessing long-term energy security: The case of electricity in the Done with 18 indicators specific to lower carbon economy consortium for UK by using Transition pathway model
United Kingdom

15 2017 Augutis et.al. Integrated energy security assessment Aiming to develop integrated framework for energy security assessment it suggests Bayesian Method and
Random Differential Equation

16 2017 Water and Energy Commission Electricity Demand Forecast Report 2015-2040 MAED (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand), IAEA
Secretariat, Nepal

17 2017 Mutingi et.al. System dynamics approaches to energy policy modelling and simulation Systems Dynamics Approach

18 2018 Gravelsins et.al. Modelling energy production flexibility : systems dynamics approaches Powersim studio 10

19 2018 Matsumoto and Shiraki Energy security performance in Japan under different socioeconomic Security Indicators derived from Shannon-Wiener diversity index and 2050 Japan low carbon Navigator was used
and energy conditions to estimate energy structures under different socio-economic scenarios

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GAPS IDENTIFIED

 Energy forecasting studies has been although carried out in

Nepal but not much has been done in case of Energy
security
 No study has been done in provincial level so far. So there is
a space for conducting energy security scenario analysis in
provincial level.
 Study done so far in Nepal does not seem to include
systems approach for study. So this method of modelling can
be adopted to analyze different energy security scenarios in
case of province-2 Nepal.

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Conclusion

• Defining “Energy security” is highly contextual and depends

on number of socio-economic factors.
 Systems thinking approaches is a powerful and versatile tool
for modelling which can duly be applied for analysis of
energy security analysis in varying socio-economic
conditions.

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 References
• Ang, B. W., Choong, W. L. and Ng, T. S. (2015) ‘Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes’,
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 42, pp. 1077–1093. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2014.10.064.
• Augutis, J. et al. (2017) ‘Integrated energy security assessment’, Energy, 138(November 2016), pp. 890–
901. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.07.113.
• Cox, E. (2018) ‘Assessing long-term energy security: The case of electricity in the United Kingdom’,
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. Elsevier Ltd, 82(July 2016), pp. 2287–2299. doi:
10.1016/j.rser.2017.08.084.
• Donella H. Meadows (2009) Thinking in Systems-A Primer, Earthscan.
• Glynn, J., Chiodi, A. and Ó Gallachóir, B. (2017) ‘Energy security assessment methods: Quantifying the
security co-benefits of decarbonising the Irish Energy System’, Energy Strategy Reviews, 15, pp. 72–88.
doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2016.11.005.
• Gracceva, F. and Zeniewski, P. (2014) ‘A systemic approach to assessing energy security in a low-carbon
EU energy system’, Applied Energy. Elsevier Ltd, 123, pp. 335–348. doi:
10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.12.018.
• Gravelsins, A. et al. (2018) ‘Modelling energy production flexibility: System dynamics approach’, Energy
Procedia. Elsevier B.V., 147, pp. 503–509. doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2018.07.060.
• IBN Government of Nepal (2011) Energy Demand Projection 2030: A MAED Based Approach. doi:
10.1016/S1251-8050(01)01658-5.
• Kruyt, B. et al. (2009) ‘Indicators for energy security’, Energy Policy, 37(6), pp. 2166–2181. doi:
10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.006.

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 References
• Månsson, A., Johansson, B. and Nilsson, L. J. (2014) ‘Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly
used methodologies’, Energy, 73, pp. 1–14. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.06.073.
• Matsumoto, K. and Shiraki, H. (2018) ‘Energy security performance in Japan under different socioeconomic
and energy conditions’, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. Elsevier Ltd, 90(March 2017), pp. 391–
401. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.070.
• Mutingi, M., Mbohwa, C. and Kommula, V. P. (2017) ‘System dynamics approaches to energy policy modelling
and simulation’, Energy Procedia. Elsevier B.V., 141, pp. 532–539. doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.11.071.
• Al Najjar, W. (2013) ‘A System Dynamics Simulation Model for Forecasting Energy Demand in Pueblo
County’, pp. 1–79.
• Pahwa, M. S. and Chopra, A. S. (2013) ‘Energy Security Models- A Critical Review and Applicability in Indian
Context’, pp. 17–20.
• Pouye, M. and Moumouni, Y. (2018) ‘A system dynamic model of a distributed generation for energy security
in Niamey’, 2018 Advances in Science and Engineering Technology International Conferences, ASET 2018.
IEEE, (1), pp. 1–5. doi: 10.1109/ICASET.2018.8376779.
• Prambudia, Y. and Nakano, M. (2012) ‘Integrated simulation model for energy security evaluation’, Energies,
5(12), pp. 5086–5110. doi: 10.3390/en5125086.
• Prambudia, Y., Nakano, M. and Methodology, A. (2010) ‘Scenario Analysis of Indonesia ’ s Energy Security by
using a System-Dynamics Approach’, 4(12), pp. 2283–2288.
• Secretariat, W. and E. C. (2017) Government of Nepal Water and Energy Commission Secretariat Electricity
Demand Forecast Report. Available at: http://www.wecs.gov.np/uploaded/Electricity-Demand-Forecast-
Report-2014-2040.pdf.
• Water and Energy Commission Secretariat WECS (2013) Long Term Vision of Nepal’S Water Resources and
Energy Sectors. Available at: http://www.wecs.gov.np/uploaded/vision-2050.pdf.

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Thank You !

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