CHAPTER 9

POPULATION
GROWTH
9.6 TO 9.10
 Birthrate and survivorship determine
NetReproductive Rate

 The fecundity table uses the survivorship column, l x , from the

life table together with the age-specifi c birthrates ( b x )
described earlier. Although b x may initially increase with age,
survivorship ( l x ) in each age class declines. To adjust for
mortality, we multiply the b x values by the corresponding l x ,
the survivorship values. The resulting value, l x b x , gives the
mean number of females born in each age group, adjusted for
survivorship.
 Age-specific Mortality and birthrates can be
used to project population growth
 Age-specificmortality rates ( q x ) from the life table together
with the age-specific birthrates ( b x ) from the fecundity table can
be combined to project changes in the population into thefuture.
 The year of establishment is designated as year 0. The introduced
population of female squirrels consists of 20 juveniles (age 0) and
10 adults (age 1), giving a total population of N (0) 30. The
following table gives age-specific birthrates ( b x ), survival rates
( s x ), and number of females in each age class ( x ) at year 0.
These values can now be used to project the population at year 1.
 Note that by substituting N (0) for N (1) (see above), we
can rewrite the equation predicting N (2) as

 In fact, we can use to project the population at any year

into the future using the following general form of the
relationship developed previously:
 The geometric and exponential models developed thus far
provide an important theoretical framework for
understanding the demographic processes governing the
dynamics of populations. But nature is not constant;
systematic and stochastic (random) processes, both
internal (demographic) and external (environmental), can
infl uence population dynamics.
 Stochastic process scan influence
population dynamics
 The realization that population dynamics represent the combined
outcome of many individual probabilities has led to the development
of probabilistic, or stochastic models of population growth. These
models allow the rates of birth and death to vary about the mean
estimate represented by the values of b x and s x .
 The stochastic (or random) variations in birth and death rates
occurring in populations from year to year are called demographic
stochasticity, and they cause populations to deviate from the
predictions of population growth based on the deterministic models
discussed in this chapter.
 Besides demographic stochasticity, random
variations in the environment, such as annual
variations in climate (temperature and
precipitation) or the occurrence of natural disasters
such as fi re, fl ood, and drought, can directly infl
uence birth and death rates within the population.
Such variation is referred to as environmental
stochasticity.
A variety of factors can lead to population
extinction
 Extreme environmental events, such as droughts, fl oods,
or extreme temperature events (heat or cold), can increase
mortality rates and reduce population size. Should the
environmental conditions exceed the bounds of tolerance
for the species, the event could well lead to extinction.
 Small population are susceptable to
extinction
 Small populations can be susceptible to a variety of factors
that directly infl uence the rates of survival and birth.
Small populations are more susceptible to both
demographic and environmental stochasticity. If only a
few individuals make up the population, the fate of each
individual can be crucial to the survival of the population.
Declining population size also may directly infl uence
birthrates as a result of life history characteristics related to
mating and reproduction .