TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Sumber : Protofolio dan Investasi,

Prof. Eduardus Tandelilin, PH.D, CWM
 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business

Telkom University

 This analysis is an attempt to estimate stock prices (market conditions)

by observing changes in the past stock prices.
 The technical approach does not pay attention to fundamental factors
such as government policy, economic growth, company sales growth,
profit growth, interest rate growth, etc. that may affect stock prices.

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business

Telkom University
 Basic concept of Technical Analysis :
1. Share Price reflects Relevant Information
2. The information is shown by past price changes
3. Because the stock price changes will have a certain pattern, and the
pattern will be repeated.

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business

Telkom University
 Technical analysis can be performed for individual stock shares or for
overall market conditions.
 Technical analysis using graphs as well as various technical indicators
 Information on price and trading volume is a key tool in technical
analysis.     
 Example: An increase (decrease) in stock prices is usually
related with an increase (decrease) in stock price volumes.

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business

Telkom University
 If the prices increase, but not followed by an increasing in trading
volume, technical analysts are generally skeptical of the price
increase.
 A certain pattern declining movement, followed by a very high
increasing in sales volume is generally interpreted that the market
conditions will be bearish (the market price has decreasing)

5 Creating the great business leaders

 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business

Telkom University
 Technical Analysis is basically an attempt to determine when to buy
(enter the market) or sell shares (out of the market), by utilizing
technical indicators or using graphical analysis.

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Kerangka Pendekatan Analisis Teknikal
Telkom University

- Technical
Technical Analysis Identifiy The - Stock By analyzing the Indicator
TRY to.. Movement of.. - Market Condition stock price THRU - Graphic

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Technical Indicators
Telkom University
 Some common technical indicators are:
1. Moving Average
2. New Highs and Low
3. Trading Volume

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Moving Average
Telkom University
 This technique is widely used Day Stock Price Moving
Average
for both individual stocks and (5 Day Basis)
for overall market conditions.
1 4.000
 Moving Average is calculated 2 4.200 -
based on a certain number of 3 4.100 4.080
days.
4 3.900 4.180
 Moving Average calculation is 5 4.200 4.200
as follows: MA Day -3 : 6 4.500 4.260
(4.000 + 4.200 + 4.100 + 3.900 + 7 4.300 4.280
4.200) /5 = 4.080 8 4.400 4.280
9 4.000
10 4.200

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business

Telkom University

If the development of "Original" price Jual
and the calculated value of its moving
average, depicted in one graph whose
axis is the price and its flat axis is the Beli
time (day), then the image will be as
follows:
 If the "Original" stock price differs below
the MA price, the price then rises to cut
the MA price by a fairly high trading
volume, then the stock is a candidate for
purchase.
 Conversely, if the stock prices above the
MA and the price down cut MA, the
actual analysis of timming timing should
be bought or sold.
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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business MA 200 Days - Example
Telkom University

Harga
6.500

6.000

5.500

5.000

4.500
Garis rata-rata
4.000 bergerak 200-
harian
Waktu

11 Creating the great business leaders

 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business

Telkom University
 Buy and Sell Guidelines for MA Analysis,
Jual
can be done as follows. A stock should be
Sale, if:
1. The original stock price is below the MA
Jual
line, the stock price is close to the MA
line but then does not cut the line, even
then away from it.
2. Following an increase, the MA line then
flattens or falls and the original stock
price cuts the line from above.
3. Stock prices rise above the MA line while
the line remains down.

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business New Highs and Low
Telkom University
 An exchange may report stocks that reached the highest (or lowest)
price during the past 52 weeks.
 Technical analysts conclude that the market will be BULLISH (stock
prices will rise) if a large number of stocks hit a 52-week high.
 In contrast, technical analysts will be worried if the market index is
rising but not many stocks hit the highest price in recent weeks.

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Trading Volume
Telkom University
 Trading activities in very high volumes in an exchange will be
interpreted as a sign that the market will improve (BULLISH)
 Increased trading volume along with the increasing price is a strong
symptom of BULLISH conditions.

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Graphic OR Chart
Telkom University
 Besides the technical Indicator, Graph or Chart is another analytical
tool in Technical analysis.
 Charts : Bar Chart or Line Chart
 A Bar Chart required information about the highest price, lowest
price, and closing price to be depicted in the chart.
 A Line Chart requires only a closing price to illustrate the chart.

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business

Telkom University
 Bar Chart Candlestick Chart

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business BAR CHART
Telkom University

Harga Pergerakan Volume

harga saham Perda-
6.500
gangan
Saham
6.000
(ribuan)
5.500

5.000
8.000
4.500
6.000
Volume
4.000 perdagangan
4.000
saham
2.000

Waktu

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Point and Figure Chart
Telkom University

Harga
  X
  X X X 0
4500
  X 0 X X 0 X 0
X 2 X 0 5 X 0 X 0 X
X X 0 X 0 X 0 X 6 0 7
4000 X 0 X X 0 0 X X X 0 X 0 X
X 0 1 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X 0 X
  0 X 0 0 X 0 X 0 0 X 0
3500   0 X 3 0 X 0
  0 X 0 X
  0 4

Waktu

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Trading rules
Telkom University

Harga
saham

Titik puncak

Trend
Trend Mendatar
Penurunan Saat menjual
Trend
Trend Peningkatan
Trend
Peningkatan
Penurunan
Saat Beli saham
Saat Beli saham

Titik terendah Titik terendah

Waktu
Sumber: Reilly, F.K., dan Brown, K.C., 1997. “Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management”, 5th
ed., The Dryden Press, New York, hal. 776

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Chart Pattern
Telkom University
 Use of Chart is intended to recognize the Patterns of the stock price
movement (or Market Index) observed.
 Pattern Chart are as follows:
1. Key Reversals
2. Head and Shoulder
3. Triple Tops
4. Ascending and Descending Triangles

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business 1. Key Reversals
Telkom University
 Key Reversals occur during a period JUAL
(usually Daily) of trading activity.
 The Key Reversal top shows a rapidly
rising price movement, but at the
end of the period it returns to the
starting position of the period.
 The reverse is for the Key Reversal
bottom.
 If such a pattern is identified, then
the action to be taken is to
immediately sell the stock as it
reaches the Top, and buy the stock as BELI
it reaches the bottom.
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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Head and Shoulder
Telkom University
 An analyst who believes that a
stock is at point A, will decide to
buy the stock, holding it for the
short term to gain capital gains. JUAL
 Conversely, if an analyst believes
that a stock has been at point B,
it will sell it because the price is
BELI
expected to fall.

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Triple Tops
Telkom University
 The analyst believes that the stock
movement will follow the Triple Tops
pattern arguing, that after going
through three tops of the price, then
the stock will fall in its price.
 If an analyst "discovers" that a stock
has traveled three times the high
price (point C), then the stock must be
SOLD.

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Ascending Triangles
Telkom University
 For Ascending Triangles there is a
price movement between horizontal
upper boundaries and lower
boundaries that have an increased
slope.
 This pattern occurs when there is an
increased demand but can still be
met. If the demand can not be
fulfilled, the price will continue to
rise, "out" from that pattern.
 Possible market will be BULLISH (BUY)

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Accending Triangles
Telkom University

http://www.stock-trading-infocentre.com

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Descending Triangles
Telkom University
 For Descending Triangles, the stock
price movement follows the opposite
pattern of ascending triangles.
 This pattern occurs in the event of the
addition of Supply of stock, but can
be offset by the demand. It's just that
at some point, the addition of the
supply can no longer be absorbed, so
the price will fall, "Out" of the
pattern.
 Descending Triangles indicates a
possible market will be Bearish
(Opportunity SELLING)
http://tutorials.topstockresearch.com

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Descending Triangles
Telkom University

http://www.stock-trading-infocentre.com

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Ascending and Descending Triangles
Telkom University

https://forextradingstrategies4u.com 28 Creating the great business leaders

 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Relative Strength
Telkom University
 RS of a stock denotes the share price Day TELECOM Market RS
ratio with a market index or Industry Index
index. 1 8475 518.971 100
 Day 1, market index and stock price
as base (= 100). 2 8950 518.761 105.64
 Day 2, RS = 105.64 indicates that
3 8650 514.972 102.85
Telecom stock price is bigger than
Market Index, it is said 4 8350 512.478 99.77
OUTPERFORM.
5 8300 514.533 98.77
 If Condition Conversely, then
Underperform. 6 8450 516.322 100.21

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Relative Strength Indeks
Telkom University
 This technique was first introduced in 1978 by J. Welles Wilder
calculated by the following formula:
 RSI = 100 – [100/(1+RS)]
 In this case, RS = Average price increase during N days
Average price drop for N days
 N = Number of days (period used in calculation)

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business

Telkom University

Period N used is 10 days. Wilder recommends the numbers 70 and 30 for the
upper and lower bounds of the RSI.
If the RSI reaches 70 or more, it is very likely that the stock has reached its
peak (because it will come down), therefore, the suggestion is SELL.
If it has reached 30 or less, it is very likely that the price has reached its
bottom (because it will rise again), therefore, the suggestion is BUY
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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business

Telkom University
 If RSI is represented in CHART form, it can be identified Top or
Bottom reversal and so on.

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 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business

Telkom University
 Analysize 1 (one) stock price of a company in Indonesia Stock
Exchange.
 Identify The Patterns and Make a decision Thru this following
pattern!
1. Key Reversals
2. Head and Shoulder
3. Triple Tops
4. Ascending and Descending Triangles
 Calculate the relative Strength
 Calculate 5 day MA and take a trading decision.

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