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Lecture-3
Studied Facts about Water Consumption
• 12 mm diameter tap when fully open with residual head of 1.5m at tap
can deliver water at rate of 15liters per minute.
• According WHO one such tap can serve 9 people in one hour at the
rate of 100 lpcd. However the consumption pattern vary based on
demands.
• For public stand post a minimum two taps should be provided each
for at least 150 persons. Public stand posts are preferred when we need
to reduce the cost of supply system and also to minimize the wastewater
generation
Studied Facts about Water Consumption
• Per capita demand distribution for various part of Punjab
Use Demand
Where,
Qff= Fire demand in L/min (F should not exceed 45380 L/min and should not be less than
1890 L/min)
A=Area of floors in m2 s (If a building is multi story then summation of floor area of all
stories)
C=A constant, with different values according to construction.
C=1.5 for wood frame construction
C=1.0 for ordinary construction
C= 0.8 for non-combustible construction
Fire Demand
• (Unitsm3/day)
where A in m2 C = a coefficient related to the type of construction and existence of
automatic sprinkler
F (gpm) = 18 C (A) 0.5 where A = total building floor area excluding basement (ft2 )
Types :
1. Direct System
2. Mobile System
3
3 2.8
2.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Year
Reasons of reduction in growth rate
(1) economic pressure in supporting large families;
(2) raised awareness of the public about family
planning and
(3) better access to contraceptives.
Rural Areas Annual Growth Rate
Rural
3
2.7
2.6
2.5 2.4 2.4 2.35
2.2 2.2
2
2
Annual growth rate (%)
1.5 1.4
1.3
1.2
0.5
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Year
Different methods of
population projection
1. Arithmetic growth method
•“rate
of growth is constant” i.e. a constant number of people are added to
the city/ village population, each year.
Mathematically
•
Integrating the equation results in
Where
• Pf= Future population
Pi= Population of last census
Ka= Arithmetic growth rate constant
Tf= Future year in which population is
required
Ti=Year in which last census was held
1. Arithmetic growth method
• In this method, population data for at least two previous census are
required. The data are used for finding the value of Ka as shown below
• Ka=
• Once value of Ka is known, it is used in equation-2 to find the future
population Pf.
• Suitability: This method is used for cities where there are no chances
of rapid growth.
2. Geometric growth method
•“rate
of growth is proportional to the present population”.
Mathematically
•
• Or Where:
Integration of equation results in: Ln= natural logarithm
Kg = geometric growth rate
•
constant and can be calculated
Alternatively, the above equation can also be written as:the following equation.
by using
2. Geometric growth method
•
Another form of the equation for geometric growth rate, generally used
is
•
Where:
• Pp=present population
• X= annual population growth rate
• N= Number of years in future for which population is required
2. Geometric growth method
Suitability:
• Method is suitable for cities having better job opportunity
(industries and well-established businesses), large resources
of land, good transportation system, better education and
medical facilities.
3. Logistic method
• For
a city/town/area, initially population increases till it touches a saturation
levels (there is not enough space for further growth). After that, the increase
in population is minimal and the population is said to be stabilized. For such
city/town/area, logistic method is used for the population forecasting.
• Mathematically
•
Where
• P=Future population
• Psat=Saturation population
3. Logistic method
•Now
•
•
3. Logistic method
Three previous census data are required for this method
• N=10 i.e. census interval Census year 1960 1970 1980 …….. 2030
•
Geometric method
•
•
•
• per year
•
•
•
• 62,317 persons
Example-2
• The population of a city, in Pakistan, as per 2017
census was 350,000 persons. The city has well
developed industrial area having abundant job
opportunities. An oil field also exists near the city. All
basic amenities of life are available. Find the
population of the city in 2037. Take annual growth
rate as 2.7%.