WHY DID 17030121024- Fiza Gulati

THEY 17030121005- Kedar Ashtikar

17030121032 - Paras Lodaya

“CHOOSE”
17030121041 – Simran Poptani
17030121056 – Shivangiraj Singh
17030121009 - Vishal Bokil

TO STAY?
Summary of the Case
■ In the case study, perception has been the focus. Perceptions of various stake holders with
respect to those struck with the Hurricane Katrina and the decision or forced choices they
had to make based on various factors including race, wealth, geographic reach and
influence.
■ There are two studies done for the purpose of this study which have been evaluated with
respect to biases, attribution error, agencies, etc.
■ In the first study, the observers (external observers and relief workers) evaluated the
decisions of the affected victims based on their perceptions.
■ In the second study, the affected parties evaluated their decisions and rationalized the same.
■ In conclusion of both studies it was observed that the patterns of the leavers and stayers
remained consistent throughout the studies as was hypothesized.
What Is Perception, and Why Is It
Important?
In this study, it was observed that perception of
People’s behavior is based on
leavers and stayers during the hurricane was
their perception of what reality
contrasting when compared.
is, not on reality itself.
The world as it is perceived is
Various values were attributed to both the groups the world that is behaviorally
which shows how perception can vary from one important.
group to another.
Models of Agency
Models of agency are defined as implicit frameworks of ideas and practices about how to construct the
actions of the self, of others, and the relationships among those actions. They are typically invisible to
those that engage or enact them.

Conjoint Model Disjoint Model

- Relationship focused - Self focused
- Interdependent - Independent
- Appreciate opinion and - Take into account their own
perspective of others perspective
How socio-economic situations affect
perceptions and actions
The article talks about the the perception of the observers regarding the survivors of Hurricane
Katrina.

It delves deep into how socio economic situations influenced the survivors to follow two
different models of behaviour. The study considered two types of observers as shown below:

Observers

Far away observers Relief workers

How socio-economic situations affect
perceptions and actions
The survivors are categorized in two sections as shown below:

Survivors

Leavers Stayers

Disjoint Conjoint
Observers defined using Attribution
Theory for Leavers
Observation Leavers

Positive Active Reso

Interpretation
Attributes States
Luck
urces
Smar Respons Independe High-arousal Good Have
t ible
Attribution
nt
of Cause
Emotions
Prepared Luck resources
Observers defined using Attribution
Theory for Stayers

Observation Stayers

Negative

s
Interpretation
Attribute
Inactive
States
Luck
Resource
s

Low
Stupid Attribution
Irrespons
ible
Passive of Cause
Inflexibl
e
Rise
Emotion
s
Unprepar
ed
Immobili
zed
Defeated
Bad
Luck
Lack
resources
 Errors and Biases in Attributions
Fundamental Attribution Error
The tendency to underestimate the influence of external factors and overestimate the
influence of internal factors when making judgments about the behavior of others.

● The perception among masses that blames the victims which can be identified by the lines in the
study are examples of Fundamental Attribution error.

● Claims such as failure of survivors to take the appropriate actions, made a mistake by staying, etc
are pointing towards the error in the perception of the stakeholders which is ignorant of the
external factors such as financial feasibility, values, relations spread geography vise, etc.

● Victim blaming, stereotyping, and belief in a just world are some features of Attribution errors
mentioned in the study.
Errors and Biases in Attributions
Self-Serving Bias
The tendency for individuals to attribute their own successes to internal factors while putting the
blame for failures on external factors.

As per case 2 , the White contexts, leavers generally described themselves as agents who sought
to influence and exert control over their environments.

Some of the leavers even emphasised on how they were efficient in leaving at the right time as
they took the right decisions.

We can see here that the leavers which was to be a better option attribute their success to
internal factors.

While the stayers perception was to be interdependent on others and to have faith in god which
is an external factor to blame.

Thus we can see the self- serving bias in this case .

 Frequently Used Shortcuts in Judging Others

Selective Perception
The tendency to choose and interpret what they see on the basis of their
interests, background, experience, and attitudes.
Since we can’t observe everything going on around us, we use selective
perception.
 Role of selective perception in the case
In part 1 of the study, it is mentioned:
• How lay observers saw stayers’ actions as less sensible than leavers’ actions.

• Observers assumed that influencing the environment through independence and control was the only way
to be agentic.

• Thus, stayers’ actions, which deviated from the disjoint model, were viewed as not making sense and as
lacking agency.

• Notably, observers derogated survivors who stayed as stupid and passive, despite recognizing reasons why
stayers could not evacuate (e.g., lack of money or transportation). The relief workers, however, didn’t
derogate stayers much.

• There was a lack of exploration of facts beyond the commonly assumed notions and hence the observers
selectively perceived information about the stayers and leavers to come to a conclusion.
Frequently Used Shortcuts in Judging Others
Halo Effect
Means drawing a general impression about an individual on the basis
of a single characteristic.

Contrast Effects
Evaluation of a person’s characteristics that are affected by
comparisons with other people recently encountered who rank higher
or lower on the same characteristics.
Role of Contrast Effect in this study
Lay observers and relief workers primarily focused on the contrast effect,
wherein they compared both the stayers and leavers on the basis of multiple
factors (on the basis of assumption) namely:

Working/ non-
Income Race
working class

Available
Family size Personality
resources
Frequently Used Shortcuts in Judging Others

Stereotyping
Judging someone on the basis of one’s perception of the group to
which that person belongs.
Role of stereotyping in the case:
The assumptions were made by the observers that:
● “Leavers” left because they had resources and friends in a different city which made it
easy for them to leave.

● As hypothesized, descriptions of leavers were more likely than descriptions of stayers to

include positive attributes that reflect the cultural ideals of a disjoint model of agency.

● By contrast, observers were more likely to describe stayers as having negative attributes
that together connote inaction and lack of agency. For example, stayers were described
as passive, irresponsible, and inflexible.

● Descriptions of stayers were also more likely than descriptions of leavers to refer to
low-arousal emotions and inactive states, such as being unprepared and defeated .
Role of stereotyping in the case:
● How the white contexts were more independent and had more resources in hand compared to
the counterpart.

● Less focus was given on the others that lead to this situation and more on how race and
ethnicity determined whether a person chose to stay or leave.

● Based on the cultural factors assumptions were made on personality styles and it was
assumed
that the stayers followed the conjoint model in contrast to the leavers who followed the disjoint
model of agency.

● This type is stereotyping where you

generalise the person on the basis of
perception of the group.
Role of Financial Constraints in
Decisions made by Stayers and Leavers

■ Annual Personal Income

■ Flood Insurance

■ Born in New Orleans

Assumptions of the Rational Decision-Making Model
Problem Clarity :- Clarity of the problems that would be faced if they stay or leave both
ways.

Known Options :- Chalk down the viable options for the least amount of damage and cost.

Clear preference :- Residents had to look into their known options and rank them accordingly

Constant preference :- Specific decision criteria are constant and that the weights assigned to
them are stable over time.

No time or cost constraints :- Warning was given to people and the choice to stay or leave
was time and cost constrained we cannot add this assumption

Maximum payoff :- Hurricane was fatal and if people stayed there was nothing they could
have done and hence the feasible option was to leave.
Common Biases and Errors
Overconfidence Bias
– Believing too much in our own decision competencies. Stayers

Anchoring Bias
– Fixating on early, first received information. Leavers

Confirmation Bias
– Using only the facts that support our decision.

Availability Bias
– Using information that is most readily at hand.

Representative Bias
– Assessing the likelihood of an occurrence by trying to match it with a pre existing
category.
Common Biases and Errors
Escalation of Commitment
– Increasing commitment to a previous decision in spite of negative information.

Randomness Error
– Trying to create meaning out of random events by falling prey to a false sense of control or
superstitions.

Hindsight Bias
– Falsely believing to have accurately predicted the outcome of an event, after that outcome is
actually known.
Reasons for Intuitive Behaviour
A high level of uncertainty exists

There is little precedent to draw on

Facts don’t clearly point the way

Analytical data are of little use

Analytical data are of little use

Time is limited and pressing for the right decision

Cultural Differences in Decision Making
Stayers = Leavers =
Predominantly Black Predominantly White
People People

Problems selected Community Independence

Importance of logic
and rationality Subjective Objective
Belief in the ability
of people to solve
problems
Faith Individual Instincts
Preference for
collective decision More Less
making
 Background on Afghanistan political crisis
• Taliban forces took control of Afghanistan's capital city of Kabul on 15 August 2021 during a military
offensive against the Afghan government that had begun in May 2021.

• The swift fall of Kabul was unexpected and send shocking waves throughout Afghanistan and the
western world

• Taliban Ideology-
• Extremely conservative along with Deobandi Islamist religious-political ideology.
• Opposition to liberal democracy, secularism, and the Western world.
• Several cultural and recreational activities were banned as haram in earlier regime.
• Oppression and non representation of women
• Women to be accompanied by mahram male relatives at all times if outside of their households.
• Widespread religious discrimination and cultural genocide.

Hence, the people faced a choice to either stay in their homeland or leave to find new greener pastures
Why people chose to Stay
• Tribal, homogenous and collectivistic
society.
• Taliban had promised to follow
moderate ideology and declared
general amnesty for all. Hence, there
was a changed perception of Taliban
• Economically deprived citizens with
GDP per capita of $493 and hence,
did not possess resource to leave
Why people chose to Leave
• Many people had witnessed the
hostilities of Taliban government in
late 1990s and were apprehensive
• Many individuals chose to leave with
their families since they possessed
monetary resources and were
politically connected
• Desire to progress and move forward
in life in order to escape war
Among two ex-presidents, one chose to leave and other chose to stay
Hamid Karzai
• Decided to stay in Afghanistan
• Born and brought up in Afghanistan and hence,
closer affiliation to roots
• A respected national figure with largely positive
perception
• Wanted a smooth transfer process of government
and power with minimal bloodshed
Ashraf Ghani
• Decided to leave Afghanistan
• Though, born in Afghanistan but spent majority of
the life in the United States and hence, bond as well
as affiliation to homeland is less intense
• Allegations of public money embezzlement
• Previous experience of Taliban beheading the
incumbent president in last regime and hence, wanted
to protect himself and family
THANK YOU.