BIG DATA/ PREDICTIVE POLICING

HOW THEY ARE USED IN POLICING AND LAW ENFORCEMENT

INTRODUCTION

 Predictive policing is the application of technology and analytical methods to make predictions about potential
criminal activity (Perry, et al., 2013).
 It involves making predictions on when crimes are likely to occur and possible perpetrators and victims of the
crimes.
 Predictive policing relies on the power of big data to map out patterns (Brayne et al., 2015).
HOW PREDICTIVE POLICING WORKS

 Predictive policing harnesses the power of big data and advanced statistical analysis methods.
 Big data is defined as large volumes of structured and unstructured data produced at a high velocity, and which
requires more advanced methods to analyse (Riali & Riali, 2018).
 Predictive policing uses analytical tools that draw from extremely large data sets to make predictions in support of
crime prevention.
 The adoption of predictive policing has increased the reliance of police departments on information technology to
collect, maintain and analyse those data sets.
HOW PREDICTIVE POLICING WORKS

 The premier objective of predictive policing is to take pre-emptive action before the criminal activity actually
takes place.
• The basis of this is that crime is predictable (in the statistical sense) because criminals tend to operate in their
comfort zones and they often replicate the types of crimes that they have previously successfully executed (Perry,
et al., 2013).
 Studies have indicated that most criminal behaviour is not random and some criminals engage in criminal
behaviour for similar reasons or motives (Perry, et al., 2013)
HOW PREDICTIVE POLICING WORKS

 Predictive policing, therefore, uses data and statistical methods to prevent crime and to solve previously
committed crimes.
 It has been touted as an efficient method to deploy stretched police resources because it relies on data and patterns
and not just police hunches (Kelion, 2014).
IMPACT OF PREDICTIVE POLICING
Benefits of Predictive Policing
 Able to predict and prevent crime
 Police resources are deployed more efficiently
 Ability to identify, profile and monitor gang
members
 Has been used to avert high profile crimes such as
terrorism and mass shootings.
 Has been helpful in preventing and solving sex
crimes
Drawbacks of Predictive Policing
 In some cases, while there have been tactical arrests,
the rate of crime has not gone down.
 Evaluation reports indicate that there is little
evidence that predictive policing has expected
results.
 Predictive policing methods infringe on people’s
right to privacy.
 Algorithmic bias and lack of algorithmic
accountability.
IMPACT OF PREDICTIVE POLICING

 Predictive policing is premised on the concept that it is possible to predict when and where criminal activities are
likely to occur based on analysis of information on computers on past criminal events (Meijer & Wessels, 2019)
 The major impact of predictive policing has been that police resources are used more efficiently.
 The predictive policing process usually is a three step process that involves inputting data into the system,
algorithmic methods used on the inputted data to predict occurrence of crime and finally police use the forecast to
construct strategic and tactical decisions in the field (Brantington, 2018)
IMPACT OF PREDICTIVE POLICING

 Predictive policing methods can also be deployed to identify and profile likely members of criminal groups who
can then be monitored and targeted beforehand (Meijer & Wessels, 2019). This has been demonstrated to be an
effective way of preventing high profile crimes such as terrorism and mass shooting, and sex offences.
 In some cases, predictive policing has been used to uncover connections between members of criminal gangs, map
out criminal histories and to identify future gang members (Meijer & Wessels, 2019)
 Further studies, however, have indicated there is limited evidence of effectiveness of predictive policing. One such
study was by Hunt, Saunders & Hollywood (2014) which found that while there was increase in tactical arrests,
there was no corresponding reduction in crime rates.
IMPACT OF PREDICTIVE POLICING

 Such evaluation studies as the one done by Hunt, Saunders and Hollywood are often cited as evidence that
predictive policing does not always have the expected outcomes.
 This is because predictive policing, at its core, relies on two main methods to achieve its results – prediction and
profiling. And on average these two methods can only draw mixed results (Meijer & Wessels, 2019)
IMPACT OF PREDICTIVE POLICING

 Predictive policing methods, however, also raise privacy issues (Strikwerda, 2020).
 The concerns are that the privacy of an individual may be invaded unlawfully when predictive policing methods
are applied contrary to the universal right to privacy (Strikwerda, 2020). Predictive policing increases the chances
of an individual’s private information being shared between police units even when the individual is innocent.
 Related to the privacy problem are concerns about the prediction of crime location. The underlying assumption is
that anyone present at the predicted crime location could be the criminal and this exposes innocent persons to
possible arrest and apprehension (Strikwerda, 2020).
 There are also fears that predictive policing can be used to exacerbate human rights abuses and be used to settle
political scores (Lindsey, 2018)
CHALLENGES OF PREDICTIVE POLICING

 A key challenge of predictive policing is lack of algorithmic accountability and transparency (Bennett Moses &
Chan, 2016).
 Algorithms provide the process through which computers analyse data inputted into them. Generally they are
assumed to me neutral, but studies have shown that they are biased.
 For example, predictive policing systems have been shown to be biased against members of the black community
in the US resulting in a huge percentage of false positives amongst them (Ferguson, 2017).
 Because of this, predictive policing has been seen to reinforce unfair stereotypes about particular groups of people
and neighbourhoods (Bennett Moses & Chan, 2016: 4-5)
CONCLUSION

 Predictive policing has potential to revolutionize police work and law enforcement. It indeed is the future of
policing because the intensified datafication of society.
 However, so that while there have been successful examples of predictive policing, the evidence suggests that it
has not had a big impact overall on prevention of crime and reduction of crime rates.
 Also it is fraught with accusation of being biased against sections of society.
 Therefore, while it is a good thing, the predictive models should be improved for better results.
REFERENCES

 Bennett Moses, L. & Chan, J., 2016. Algorithmic Prediction in Policing: Assumptions, Evaluation and
Accountability. Policing and Society, 28(7), pp. 806-822.
 Brantington, P. J., 2018. The Logic of Data Bias and Its Impact on Place-Based Predictive Policing. Ohio State
Journal of Criminal Law, Volume 15, pp. 473-478.
 Brayne, S., Rosenblat, A. & Boyd, D., 2015. Predictive Policing, s.l.: Data & Civil Rights: A New Era of Policing
and Justice.
 Ferguson, A. G., 2017. The Rise of Big Data Policing. New York: New York University Press.
 Kelion, L., 2014. London Police Trial Gang Violence 'Predicting' Software. [Online] Available at:
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-29824854 [Accessed 7 January 2021].
REFERENCES

 Lindsey, N., 2018. Predictive Policing Raises Important Security and Human Rights Concerns. [Online] Available at:
https://www.cpomagazine.com/data-privacy/predictive-policing-raises-important-privacy-and-human-rights-concern
s/
[Accessed 7 January 2021].
 Meijer, A. & Wessels, M., 2019. Predictive Policing: Review of Benefits and Drawbacks. International Journal of
Public Administration, 42(12), pp. 1031-1039.
 Perry, W. L. et al., 2013. Predictive Policing: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations, s.l.:
RAND Corporation.
 Riali, Y. & Riali, S., 2018. Big Data and Big Data Analytics: Concepts, Types and Technologies. International
Journal of Research and Engineering, 5(9), pp. 524-528.
 Strikwerda, L., 2020. Predictive Polilcing: The Risks Associateed With Risk Assessment. The Police Journal:
Theory, Practice and Principles, pp. 1-15.