CONFIDENCE

LEVEL
AND
SAMPLE SIZE
• CONFIDENCE LEVEL - A confidence level refers
to the percentage of all possible samples that
can be expected to include the true
population parameter.
• MARGIN OF ERROR - The margin of error
expresses the maximum expected difference
between the true population parameter and a
sample estimate of that parameter. To be
meaningful, the margin of error should be
qualified by a probability statement (often
expressed in the form of a confidence level).
Deriving Formula

There are two things to remember when we

decide on the quality of the sample size we
need: confidence and the narrowness of the
interval. The computing formula in
determining sample size is derived from the
formula of the margin of error (E) where:

• Study the derivation of the computing

formula for determining minimum sample
size when estimating a population mean.
• Discuss the elements of formula.
 FORMULA IN DETERMINING THE
MINIMUM SAMPLE SIZE NEEDED WHEN
ESTIMATING THE POPULATION MEAN
 Since the value of is usually unknown,
it can be estimated by the standard deviation
s from a prior sample.Alternatively, we may
approximate the range R of observations in
the population and make a conservative
estimate of = R/4 . In any case, round up the
value of obtained to ensure that the sample
size will be sufficient to achieve the specified
reliability.
 Example # 1
In a certain village, Leony wants to estimate the mean
weight μ, in kilograms of all six-year old children to be
included in a feeding program.She wants to be 99%
confident that the estimate of μ is accurate to within
0.06 kg. Suppose from a previous study, the standard
deviation of the weights of the target population was
0.5 kg, what should the sample size be?
 Example # 2
Joshua wants to replicate a study where
the lowest observed value is 12.4 while the
highest is 12.8. He wants to estimate the
population mean μ to within an error of
0.025 of its true value.Using 99% confidence
level, find the sample size n that he needs.
Deriving Formula

• Study the derivation of the

computing formula in determining
the sample size needed when
estimating population proportion.
• Compare this formula with the
formula derived in In-class Activity
1.
To determine the sample size for
finding the confidence interval for a
proportion, the computing formula
is also derived from the margin of
error.
 FORMULA IN DETERMINING THE
MINIMUM SAMPLE SIZE NEEDED WHEN
ESTIMATING THE POPULATION
PROPORTION
 Steps in Solving for Sample Size
Involving Proportions
Step 1. Determine the confidence level.
Step 2. Determine the confidence coefficient.
Step 3. Determine the error E.
Step 4. Determine p and q.
Step 5. Substitute the values in the formula.
Step 6. Round up the resulting value to the
nearest whole number.
 Example # 1
Mary wants to know, with 95%
confidence, the proportion of households
who like to use detergent X. A previous
survey showed that 42% like to use detergent
X. Mary likes to be accurate within 2% of the
true proportion. What sample size does Mary
needed?
 Example # 2
The dean of a college wants to use the proportion of a
population to determine the sample size needed to
interview regarding their thoughts about the new school
structure. She wants to be able to assert with a
probability 0.95 that her error will be at most 0.05.
Similar polls in the past showed that 65% approved the
new structure. How large a sample does the Dean need?