UNDERSTANDING

THE CONFLICT

Dr. Murat Aslan

 DEFENCE
* MEANING:
- to counter an offense though, offensive attitude is also perceived as defence.
* MOTIVATION: SURVIVAL AND PROTECTION
- Existence, authority, sovereignty, area of influence or diffusion, social entity, organized entity…
* SUBJECT:
- Individual, clan, territory, materials, goods, king, state, society…
* PURPOSE:
- Survival, balancing, conquer, prevent, deny….
* METHODOLOGY:
- Deterrence, countering, offend, alliances and coalitions, pre-emptive strike, defence… *
ASSETS:
- Military, political, intelligence, propaganda, economic, technological, lines of
communications…
 THE EVOLUTİON OF DEFENSE AND CONFLICT
* HISTORICAL DISCOURSE OF SECURITY PERCEPTION, CONFLICTS, WAR AND TRANSFORMATION OF THEM
- Sun Tzu, Thucydides, Clausewitz, Machiavelli…
- Discoveries of the new worlds and increasing prominence of the waterways and sea powers.
- Transformation in the modus operandi of wars in 17th century!
- The transformation from the throne wars to the national ones.
- War strategy: Transition to geo-strategy narratives.
- Geographic expansion of war zones.
- Science and its effect on conflicts.
- Industrial revolution and War: Assets, economy, philosophy, military strategy…
- World Wars: Leadership, the doctrine of offense, Indirect approach of Liddle Hart, air power, armoured armies,
conventional and unconventional wars, total wars among the nations…
- The Cold War and revolutionary conflicts, terrorism and regional wars.
- Ethnic wars after
- Modern revisionism, state intervention to failing states, imposed regimes, enforced federalism
- Proxy and hybrid wars,
- Privatization of wars: military companies,
- The conflicts through economy, technology, intelligence, modern propaganda.
- Competition on Space and Cyber Warfare…
 THE CONFLICT

* May occur in many forms; tangible or intangible,

* May include differing actors,
* May exploit varying assets,
* May be conventional or unconventional, traditional or irregular,
* May be based on rules or not regulated,
* State has a distinguished position in the conflicts though; not the only actor.
 THE CONFLICT
* State actors’-oriented Approach;
+ Expectations through experienced political, military, economic, geographical (…)
events, environment,
+ The requirements and the conditions of international structure,
+ Interaction with the other states and non-state actors and affiliated perceptions,
+ Prejudices due to historical discourse that may be raised by ethnical, religious,
sectarian or ideological motivations.
+ Subjected to international regulations and their constraints in the way of
revisionism or status quo,
+ Actors and factors reviewed to have most or relative gains depending the
philosophy of the state-art.
* Security and conflict is beyond the state actors anymore. New phenomena like
individual, society, gender, nature / environment, cyber (…) identify the context.
 Supra-state
Non-state actors States
Organizations

INTERACTION NEW CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL
EXPECTATIONS REGULATIONS AND PREJUDICES AND EMERGING
STRUCTURE
PERCEPTION DYNAMICS

TRAUMAS + ACTORS + FACTORS

Defence Management: Be Prepared for the Conflict!

Political-Military
Political Level Military
Level
• Security • Defence Policy • Military
Strategy Strategies
• Plans
 Affiliated vision and
strategies of defence
Defence Vision and
Strategy

Defence Architecture
NATIONAL SECURITY
Public Order Vision
VISION AND
and Strategy
STRATEGY

Justice Vision and

Strategy

DCAF-ISSAT
POLITICAL WILL STRATGEY PAPER
• Threats, risks, interests, • Addresses the functions of the
expectations state such as industry, health,
security etc.

DEFENCE POLICY
• Description of the threat,
environment, missions, capacities ,
MILITARY PLANNING plan and programming efforts,
procurement and production
cycles.
 HOW STATES PREPARE THEMSELVES FOR WAR & CONFLICTS?
* States prepare visions, concepts, and strategies by observing the following dynamics: -
Risks and threats,
- Priorities,
- Principles,
- Authorities and responsibilities,
- Required capacities,
- Constraints.

* Strategy papers;
- Political directives,
- Establishes civilian and democratic control,
- Depicts intention of the political leadership,
- White Papers are designed to inform the public and foreign audience to measure the
reactions and attitudes.
NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY OF THE USA
NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY OF THE USA
* THE ULTIMATE AIM OF THE OVERALL PROCESS:
- CONFLICT READINESS!

* A QUESTION WORTH TO DISCUSS:

- Do the states prepare themselves for the minor probability of war?

OR

- Do the states go to war if they feel that they are ready to ignite a war for their
ultimate political goal?
Discussion