System Reliability Evaluation

Basics of Probability Theory

Events
 An event E is a collection of zero or more sample
points from S

 S and E are sets  use of set operations.

Algebra of events
 Sample space is a set and events are the subsets of
this (universal) set.
 Mutually exclusive (disjoint) events
Probability axioms



Conditional probability
 In some experiment, some prior information may
be available, e.g.,
 In general,
Mutual Independence
 A and B are said to be mutually independent, iff,

 Also, then,
Independent set of events
 Set of n events, {A1, A2,..,An} are mutually
independent iff, for each

 Complements of such events also satisfy,

 Pair wise independence (not mutually independent)

System reliability evaluation
 A general system:

Input System Output

 System reliability evaluation
Types of basic system configurations:

 Series system
 Parallel system
 Series-parallel system (mixed system)
 K-out-of-N system
 Standby system
 Reliability Block Diagrams: RBDs

 Each component of the system is represented as a block

 System behavior is represented by connecting the blocks
 Blocks that are all required are connected in series
 Blocks among which only one is required are connected in
parallel
 When at least k of them are required are connected as k-of-n
 Failures of individual components are assumed to be
independent
Series system
 Series system: n statistically independent components.


 Let, Ri = P(Ei), then series system reliability:

 For now reliability is simply a probability, later it will be a function of time

Series system

R1 R2 Rn

This simple PRODUCT LAW OF RELIABILITIES,

is applicable to series systems of independent
components.
Series Systems

Rs  Pr ob(1  2  3          n)

RS = R1 R2 ... Rn
n
Rs   Ri
i 1

14
 Parallel system

 System consisting of n independent parallel components.

 System fails to function iff all n components fail.
 Ei = "component i is functioning properly"
 Ep = "parallel system of n components is
functioning properly."
 Rp = P(Ep).
 Parallel system (Continued)

E p  "The parallel system has failed "

 " All n components have failed "
__ __ __
 E1  E2 ...  En
Therefore:
__ __ __ __
P( E p )  P( E1  E 2 ...  E n )
__ __ __
 P ( E1 ) P( E 2 )... P ( E n )
(1  R1 )(1  R2 )    (1  Rn )
__ n
R p  P( E p )  1  P( E p )  1   1  Ri 
i 1
 Parallel system (Continued)

R1
..
.
Input Output
..
.
Rn

• Parallel systems of independent components

follow the PRODUCT LAW OF UNRELIABILITIES
Parallel Systems

Input 2 Output

R p  Pr ob(1  2  3          n)

Rp = 1 - (1 - R1) (1 - R2)... (1 - Rn)

18
Series-Parallel Systems
RC
C
RA RB RD
Input A B D Output
C
RC
 Convert to equivalent series system
RA RB RD
A B C’ D

RC’ = 1 – (1-RC)(1-RC)
Series-Parallel System
 Series-parallel system: n-series stages, each with
ni parallel components.

 Reliability of series parallel system

 Series-Parallel system (example)

voice
control
Input Output
voice

control
voice

Example: 2 Control and 3 Voice Channels

 Series-Parallel system (Continued)

 Each control channel has a reliability Rc

 Each voice channel has a reliability Rv
 System is up if at least one control channel and at
least 1 voice channel are up.
 Reliability:
R  [1  (1  Rc ) 2 ][1  (1  Rv )3 ] (3)
 Exponential Distribution

 Distribution Function:F  t   1  e  t
t0
 Density Function: f t   e  t
t0
 Reliability: R t   e  t
t0
h t  

f t  
Failure Rate:
R t 


failure rate is age-independent (constant)

 MTTF: MTTF  1 / 
Reliability evaluation for repairable and non-
repairable systems

 Can be used to calculate

 Non-repairable system reliability and MTTF given
 Individual block reliabilities
Or Individual block failure rates
 Assuming mutually independent failures events
 Repairable system availability and MTBF given
 Individual block reliabilities
Or Individual block failure rates
 Assuming mutually independent failures events
 Series system in RBD
 Series system of n components.
R1 R2 Rn
 Components are statistically independent
 Define event Ei = "component i functions properly.”
 For the series system:
P(" The system is functionin g properly " )
 P( E1  E2  ...  En )
 P( E1 )  P( E2 )...P( En ), by independen ce
 Reliability for Series system
 Product law of reliabilities:

where Ri is the reliability of component i

 For exponential Distribution:

n n
Rs   Ri or Rs (t )   Ri (t )
 For weibull Distribution:

i 1 i 1

 i t
  it
if Ri (t )  e then Rs (t )  e i 1

 i t 
(  i ) t 
if Ri (t )  e then Rs (t )  e i 1
MTTF for Series System

 Assuming exponential failure-time

distribution with constant failure rate i
for each component, then:
1
MTTF  n


i 1
i
 Parallel system in RBD
 A system consisting of n independent components in
parallel.
R1
..
.
 It will fail to function only if all n components have failed.
 Ei = “The component i is functioning” ..
.
 Ep = "the parallel system of n component is functioning
properly."
Rn
 Parallel system in RBD(Continued)
E p  " The parallel system has failed "
 " All n components have failed "
__ __ __
 E1  E2 ...  En
Therefore:
__ __ __ __ __ __ __
P( E p )  P( E1  E2 ...  En )  P ( E1 ) P ( E2 )...P ( En )
P( E p )  1  P( E p )
 Reliability for parallel system
 Product law of unreliabilities
n n
R p  1   (1  Ri ) , or R p (t )  1   (1  Ri (t ))
i 1 i 1

where Ri is the reliability of component i

 For exponential distribution:

n
Ri (t )  e i t , then R p (t )  1   (1  e it )
i 1
 Series-Parallel system
voice
control
voice
control
voice
2 Control and 3 Voice Channels Example

•System is up as long as 1 control and 1 voice channel

are up
•The whole system can be treated as a series system
with two blocks, each block being a parallel system
 Series-Parallel system (Continued)

 Each control channel has a reliability Rc(t)

 Each voice channel has a reliability Rv(t)
 System is up if at least one control channel and
at least 1 voice channel are up.
 Reliability:
R(t )  [1  (1  Rc (t )) ][1  (1  Rv (t )) ]
2 3
 Homework :

 Specialize formula (3) to the case where:

 c t  v t
Rc (t )  e and Rv (t )  e

 Derive expressions for system reliability and

system mean time to failure.
 An Fault Tree Example (cont.)
 Reliability of the system:
 c t  v t
Assume Rc (t )  e and Rv (t )  e ,

R(t )  [1  (1  Rc (t )) ][1  (1  Rv (t )) ]
2 3

 c t  2 c t  v t  2 v t 3v t
 (2e e )(3e  3e e )
The WFS Example

File Server

Computer Network

Workstation 1 Workstation 2
RBD for the WFS Example

Workstation 1

File Server

Workstation 2
RBD for the WFS Example
(cont.)
 Rw(t): workstation reliability
 Rf (t): file-server reliability
 System reliability R(t) is given by:

R t   1 
 1 RW  t    R  t 
2
f
 Note: applies to any time-to-failure distributions
 RBD for the WFS Example
(cont.)
 Assuming exponentially distributed times to failure:
 failure rate of workstation W
 failure rate of file-server f
 t
R( t )  [1  (1  e w t 2
) ]e f

 The system mean time to failure (MTTF) is

given by:
2 1
MTTF  
0 R( t )dt  
 w   f 2 w   f
 Homework :
 For the following system, write down the expression for system reliability and MTTF

C
D
A B C E
D
 Assuming for each block a failure rate i andC
 Calculate reliability for specified time period of 2500 hrs
and MTTF

Assume i  2.5 10 4 Failure/hr

Reliability evaluation of K-of-N System

 System consisting of N independent components

 System is up when K or more components are
operational.
 Identical K-of-N system: each component has the
same failure and/or repair distribution
 Non-identical K-of-N system: each component may
have different failure and/or repair distributions
 Binomial Random Variable
(cont.)

 Y(t) is binomial with parameters n,p

pk  P (Y ( t )  k )  C(n, k) p (1 - p)
k n- k

 x
F ( x )  P (Y ( t )  x )   C(n, k) p
k
(1 - p) n- k

k 0

E[Y ( t )]  np
Reliability evaluation of K-of-N System

For Binomial distribution,

P ( X  x)  C (n, x)  R x  (1  R) n  x

Rs  P( X  K )  P( X  K  1)        P( X  N )
N
Rs   C ( N , i )  R i  (1  R) N i
iK
 Reliability for identical K-of-N
Reliability of identical k out of n system


n
Rkofn (t )  FYnk 1 (t )   ( nj )[ R (t )] j [1  R (t )]n  j ,
j k

R (t )  1  F (t ) is the reliability for each component


k=n, series system
Rs (t )  [ R (t )]n

k=1, parallel system
R p (t )  1  [1  R (t )]n
Reliability Evaluation of Standby System
Standby system:

Operating unit
A
Switching device

Output
Input

B
Standby unit
As = Reliability of the switching device

As = 1.0, for perfect switching device

As < 1.0, for imperfect switching device

 Classification of Standby System
Standby system

Standby system with Standby system with

perfect switching device imperfect switching device

( As  1.0) (0  As  1.0)

1-Operating unit (OU) n-Operating unit 1-Operating unit n-Operating unit

and and and and
N-standby unit (SU) N-standby unit N-standby unit N-standby unit
(CASE-1) (CASE-2) (CASE-3) (case-4)

General notation of standby system: (n/N) standby system

n = Number of operating units (OU)
N = Number of standby units (SU)
 Reliability Evaluation of Standby System
(Perfect switching device)
Case-1: (1/1) standby system (1-OU and 1-SU)
Operating unit
A
Switching device
( As  1)
Output
Input

B
Standby unit

(1/1) Standby system

 Reliability Evaluation of Standby System

Let,

 = Failure rate of component A and component B

t = Specified time period
m  t = Parameter of Poisson distribution
em  m x
Px (t )  = Probability that exactly x number of components will
x! fail upto time period t

System reliability is given by,

Rs (t )  P ( x  0)  P ( x  1)  e  m  me  m  (1  t )e  t

2
MTTF   Rs (t )dt 
0

Case-1: (1/2) standby system (1-OU and 2-SU)
OU-1
Switching device
SU-1
Input Output

SU-2
System reliability is given by,
2 m
m m m e
Rs (t )  P( x  0)  P( x  1)  P( x  2)  e  me 
2!

 1  t 
  t    t
2

e
 2! 

3
MTTF   Rs (t )dt 
0

 Case-1: (1/N) standby system (1-OU and N-SU)

OU-1
Switching device

Input SU-1

SU-2

Output


SU-N
Rs (t )  P( x  0)  P( x  1)      P( x  N )

1 N
MTTF   Rs (t )dt 
0

 Case-2: (n/N) standby system n-OU and N-SU

OU-1
OU-2

Switching devices

Input OU-n Output

Here, m  n t SU-1
Rs (t )  P( x  0)  P( x  1)      P( x  N ) SU-2


1 N

MTTF   Rs (t )dt  SU-N
0
n
 Reliability Evaluation of Standby System
(Imperfect switching device)
Case-1: (1/1) standby system (1-OU and 1-SU)
Operating unit
A
Switching device
( As  1)
Output
Input

B
Standby unit

Standby system
 Reliability Evaluation of Standby System
(Imperfect switching device)
Case-3: 1-OU and 1-SU

Rs (t )  P ( x  0)  P ( x  1)  As  e  m  As me  m  (1  tAs )e  t


1  As
MTTF   Rs (t )dt 
0

Case-3: 1-OU and 2-SU
Case-3: (n/N) standby unit (n-OU and N-SU)