Lecture 12:

Chapter 11: “The Future: Rational

Optimism”

CCGL9042 Evolution of Civilization

Dr. Larry Baum & Dr. Jack Tsao Song 1 Song 2
Outline
• Summary of lectures
• Predictions for 2050
• My predictions for 2050
• Your predictions for 2050
• SFTL
Catallaxy
• Term refers to the spontaneous order created by
free economic exchange between individuals
(Friedrich Hayek).
• Synonymous with a market society that is open,
inclusive, and individualistic (in contrast to a
‘command economy’).
• Evolved over tens of thousands of years as
discussed throughout the course.
Summary of the lectures
Lecture 1: Introduction to evolutionary theory and overview of civilization
Lecture 2: Putting our heads together: Exchange after 200,000 years ago
Lecture 3: Trading emotions: Trust and rules after 50,000 years ago
Lecture 4: Growing agriculture: Farming after 10,000 years ago
Lecture 5: Rising cities: Market places after 5,000 years ago
Lecture 6: Population explosion: Malthus’s trap after 1,000 years ago
Lecture 7: Measures of success: The goals of government
Lecture 8: Energy: Release of slaves after 1700
Lecture 9: Invention: Accelerating returns after 1800
Lecture 10: Turning points: Perennial pessimism after 1900
Lecture 11: Climate change: Causes, consequences, and solutions after 2000
Lecture 12: The future: Rational optimism
Introduction

• The scientific method:

o Questions
o Hypotheses
o Discourse
o Experiments
• Values & morals: outside science, so
not a focus of the course
• Human societies have evolved
o from small hunter-gatherer communities to
cities and states supported by farming, and
finally through industrialization.
o Specialization and trade drove this process.
This  That, if something
Putting our heads together:
Exchange and specialization
after 200,000 years ago
• No other species trades.
• Technical progress requires trade.
• Comparative advantage makes trade
beneficial.
• Network effect accelerates benefits: the
more the merrier.
Trading emotions:
Trust and rules after
50,000 years ago

• Trading started over 50 ka ago.

• Emotions that facilitate cooperation,
including trust, co-evolved with
trade.
• Societal trust, protection of
ownership, and laws help trade.
• Trade has benefitted most people in
the world.
Growing agriculture:
Farming after 10,000
years ago

• Farming concentrated wealth,

stimulating trade and specialization.
• Farming improvements have fed
more and more people.
• Rejecting the improvements
(organic, anti-GMO)
o Requires more and more land.
o Has some emotional causes.
Rising cities:
Market places after 5,000
years ago

• Trade creates cities.

• Cities aid specialization & trade.
• Economy best when government
allows it to work.
Population explosion:
Malthus’s trap after 1,000
years ago
• The Malthusian trap kept most people in
poverty.
• Multiple factors greatly increased
production during Industrial Revolution, first
in UK.
• Multiple factors may have led to
demographic transition to lower fertility
before hitting carrying capacity.
• Worldwide, population explosion is now
ending.
• Population may fall in developed countries.
Measures of success:
The goals of government

• What’s the goal?

• Popular measures
o GDP
o Others

• Other measures
o Economic
o Health
o Education
o Happiness
o Composite
Energy:
Release of slaves after 1700

• Previously, renewable PAWWW power

• Fossil fuels powered the Industrial
Revolution, greatly increasing standard
of living.
• Modern world depends on fossil fuels.
• Solar and wind small but rising quickly
and may reduce pollution.
Invention:
Accelerating returns after
1800
• Since memes began changing,
innovation has been accelerating. Why?
o Trade
o Exchange of information

• Since Industrial Revolution,

innovation accelerated. Why?
o Producer explosion
o Consumer explosion
o Communication explosion
o Tools
• Producer & consumer explosion due to
middle class explosion, due to
demographic transition
Turning points:
Perennial pessimism after 1900

1. People often think things will soon get much worse.

2. They don’t.
3. Why such pessimism?
Climate change:
Causes, consequences,
and solutions after 2000
1. Humans burn fossil fuels, adding CO2
to the air.
2. The resulting greenhouse effect
warms Earth.
3. Harm likely outweighs good.
4. Take cheapest, most
effective actions
• but weigh against other high priorities.
• and consider small chance of large risk.

5. Africa has bright future.

Predictions
for 2050
Why 2050?
• A nice round number
• Sooner than 2100, so it’s easier to predict
• We’ll probably be alive then to check, if we
remember.
Study past to predict
future

• “Those who cannot remember the

past are condemned to repeat it.” –
George Santayana
• Applied history: learn principles
from past actions to apply to the
present and future.
• Check accuracy of past predictions
about the present.
• Extrapolate past trends and patterns
into the future.
 Study past to predict
future

The past of predictions of the future

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LnyYNG5ZzA (1:20)

What The Past Predicted We'd Live Like

Today?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4pPUNhxQyw&feature=you
tu.be&t=382
(6:23 to 10:28)
 Arthur C. Clarke (1917-2008)
• Science fiction writer, science writer, inventor, deep sea
explorer, TV host
• Wrote 2001: A Space Odyssey: trailer (2:30)
• Clarke’s three laws:
1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is
possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is
impossible, he is very probably wrong.
2. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a
little way past them into the impossible.
3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
• 1964 Future Predictions: http://youtu.be/FxYgdX2PxyQ (3:13)
• 1974 on computers: http://youtu.be/OIRZebE8O84 (1:33)
Study present to predict future
• Another science fiction writer, William Gibson: “the future is already
here — it’s just not very evenly distributed.”
• Innovations start somewhere, then spread. Look now to see future.
What do you predict?
• Think of one big change you predict by 2050.
• Interesting and likely
• I’ll ask you to enter it on Moodle later in this
lecture, using ≤10 words.
• I’ll give some participation credit to everyone
who submits a prediction.
Cognitive surplus
• Clay Shirky: cognitive surplus—https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0msKMRxFNw (0:14-3:53)
My predictions for 2050
• Forecasters like electronics.
o We’ve already discussed it.
o So I will ignore it.
• What will affect lives?
o Death
o Health
o Income
o Happiness
 Demographics
• Population
o 10 billion people in world
o Rising in some places, including
Africa
o Falling in some places: Europe and
East Asia
• Longevity
o 80 years worldwide
o Elderly people much higher % of
population
– Last phase of demographic transition
– More elderly centers than schools?
– More jobs for elderly carers, nurses,
geriatricians
 Health
• Almost every disease
will fall.
o Because almost every
cause now decreasing
o Rising incomes:
current treatment &
prevention available
to more people
o Improving knowledge:
better treatment
available to richest
people
 Sustainable Development Goals
• I’ll select several
related goals.
• First, work & growth.
o Decent jobs for everyone?
o Economic growth >7%/yr
in the poorest countries?
o More fair pay, environmental
protection, opportunities for
women, youth and people
with disabilities, and
cracking down on forced
and child labour?
o Few poor countries grow
>7%/yr now, so unlikely soon.
o But in future, cheap labor scarcer, boosting growth in the last poor countries.
 Sustainable Development Goals
• Work & growth.

Economic growth >7%/yr in the poorest countries

Decent jobs for everyone

More fair pay, environmental protection, opportunities for women,

youth and people with disabilities, and cracking down on forced and child labour
 Sustainable Development Goals
• Jobs help end poverty and hunger.

Decent jobs for everyone

End poverty in all its forms everywhere

Zero hunger
 Sustainable Development Goals
• Jobs also raise tax revenue for government to fund:
o Good health and well-being
o Clean water and sanitation
o Quality education
o Affordable and clean energy
o Industry, innovation, and infrastructure
• Will be major progress on 8 goals:
Sustainable Development Goals

https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/sustainable-development-goals.html
Sustainable Development
Goals
• Mid-income countries are also getting
richer, allowing them to shift focus
from survival to environment
o Life on land
o Life below water
o Climate action
o Responsible consumption
o Sustainable cities and communities
• Major progress on 5 goals
Income
• Far fewer people in
extreme poverty

2050
Income
• Huge growth of middle class
o From ~40% now to ~75%
o From ~3 billion now to ~7.5 billion
• Consumption growth
o Housing
o Health
o Education
o Travel
o Entertainment
o Luxuries

2050

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/global_20170228_global-middle-class.pdf
 Happiness
• Past change in happiness
o From ~2008 to ~2015
o Little change
• Prediction for 2050
o Trend continues: little change
o But some lasting improvement
– Better conditions in world
 Economy
 Mental health
 Social environment
– Policy to improve happiness: how?

https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2017/
 Happiness
• To reduce misery, treat
depression and anxiety.
• To raise happiness, same, but
varies by region.
o Mental illness key in rich places.
o Second to income in poor places.

http://worldhappiness.report/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/03/HR17.pdf
 Happiness
• Happiness may not really depend on objective conditions of
either wealth, health or even community. Rather, it depends
on the correlation between objective conditions and
subjective expectations.
• Expectations determined by mass media and advertising
industry (deplete contentment).
• E.g., in raising a child, Daniel Kahneman found mostly
unpleasant moments outweigh moments of joy. However,
parents declare their children are chief sources of happiness.
Hence happiness is not surplus of pleasant over unpleasant
moments. Consists of seeing one’s life in its entirety as
meaningful and worthwhile.
• If personal narrative in line with the narratives of people
around me, life is meaningful and happiness is that conviction.
• The root of suffering comes from never-ending and pointless
pursuit of ephemeral feelings, causing a constant state of
tension, restlessness, and dissatisfaction.
Reference: Chapter 19: And They Lived Happily Ever After
of Harari YN, 2015, Sapiens: a brief history of humankind
Your prediction for 2050
• In Moodle, under Surveys, enter
one prediction of a big change by
2050.
• Ideally interesting and likely
• Keep it brief: ≤10 words.
• For fun to watch in your future, a series of predictions for
2050:
https://www.npr.org/2019/05/06/716414780/videos-future-yo
u
Student Feedback of
Teaching and Learning (SFTL)
• Please go to the weblink http://sftl.hku.hk,
where you should see a list of all forms that you
need to complete. Your evaluation will be saved
anonymously, without any identification. There
are separate forms for the course, teacher, tutor
and demonstrator (if appropriate). There are
instructions, an FAQ link and a link for you to
report any missing courses at the weblink.
Your predictions
• After you finish the SFTL, please read several
predictions of other students and rate them
(1-5) in terms of being interesting and likely,
with 5 being best.
• Return in a few days and view the predictions
to see how students rated them.
 The End
Of
The Course Lectures

I’ve enjoyed teaching the course

and hope you’ve enjoyed it, too.

Best wishes on YOUR future!