tarter

robability

I flip two fair coins.

What is the probability that I flip 2 heads? Coin 1
P(2 heads) =
H T
What is the probability that I flip 1 head and 1 tails?
H

Coin 2
P(1 head and 1 tails) =

T TT

Coin 1

¼ ½
Explore 1
Probability
 Probability

• Recall definitions about probability and how to use the probability scale

• Complete sample space diagrams to calculate the probability of an event

• Construct tree diagrams to calculate the probability of an event

Probability

Mutually Exclusive, Events, Scale, Sample

Space, Tree Diagram.
What is probability?

• The probability of something happening means how likely it is to

happen or the chance of it happening.
• Probability can be shown in fraction or decimal form and adds up to
1.
The probability scale.

Impossible Certain
Even Chance

unlikely likely
0 ½ 1
he probability scale.

Heads on a coin
Rolling a 7 on
Impossible a die
Certain
Even Chance
The
Winning
sun will
therise
inlottery
the morning.
unlikely likely
0 ½ 1
Tails on a coin
How do we calculate probability?

Number of ways it can

happen
Probability =
Total number of
outcomes
Flipping a coin

• If you flip a regular 2p coin, what is the probability of it landing on;

Chance of event occurring 1
• Heads
Probability = =
Total number of outcomes 2

• Tails Chance of event occurring 1

Probability = =
Total number of outcomes 2
O1 Recall definitions about probability and how to use the probability scale

How many Smarties are

there altogether?

20
O1 Recall definitions about probability and how to use the probability scale

All the Smarties are put back in the tube.

If I pick a Smartie at random, what is the probability that

it is green?

Total number of Smarties = 20

Number of green Smarties = 1

Probability of picking green =  

 All the Smarties are in the tube.

If I pick a Smartie at random, what is the probability that

it is brown?

Total number of Smarties = 20

Number of brown Smarties = 4

 
Probability of picking brown =
 All the Smarties are in the tube.

If I pick a Smartie at random, what is the probability that it

is orange or yellow?

Total number of Smarties = 20

Number of orange
and yellow Smarties = 7

 
LO2 Complete sample space diagrams to calculate the
probability of an event

• We can use a sample space diagram to help determine and list all the
possible outcomes of two events.

• Consider the situation where I roll two dice and add the scores
together. This can be represented using a sample space diagram.
 a) What is the
probability of
getting a sum
2 3 4 5 6 7 of 7?
   𝟏
3 4 5 6 7 8 b) What is the
𝟔

probability of
4 5 6 7 8 9 getting a sum
that is odd?
5 6 7 8 9 10
 
6 7 8 9 10 11 c) What is the
probability of
7 8 9 10 11 12 getting a prime
number or an
even number?
   𝟖
𝟗
O3 Construct tree diagrams to calculate the probability of an event
he ‘AND’ Rule
 

Heads (H) Tails

(T)
1 1H 1T
2 2H 2T
3 3H 3T
4 4H 4T
5 5H 5T
6 6H 6T
he ‘AND’ Rule
 
To work out the probability of two events BOTH happening,
consider their individual probabilities.

P(6) = P(T) =

P(6 and T) =

Can you spot the link???

The ‘AND’ Rule

• The Probability of events A and B happening:

• P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)

O3 Construct tree diagrams to calculate the probability of an event

Tree Diagrams

A tree diagram is a diagrammatical way of representing

the probabilities of two or more events

To calculate probabilities using a tree diagram, you

multiply along the branches

20
O3 Construct tree diagrams to calculate the probability of an event

The probability that it will rain on Monday is 0.2. The

probability that it will rain on Tuesday is 0.3.

What is the probability that it will rain on Monday and

Tuesday?

Use a tree diagram to display this information

21
 Tuesday
0.3 It rains
Monday
We know that the
It rains probability is 0.2
0.2
There
0.7 are two
It does not rain
Look!Now
Vertically, the at possible events here;
let’s look
numbers add up to 1. TheItprobability
Tuesday rains or It does
that itnot
rains on
rain was given to us as
Tuesday
We can workItout
0.3.0.3 rains
that the
0.8
It does probability
Well,
What
raining ofand
is theitprobability?
not
notraining
raining
not rain hasMutually
are to be 0.7,Exclusive
because they Events.
have to 1 –up
add 0.2to=1.0.8
So their probabilities have to
We now have the required add up to 1.
Tree Diagram. 0.7
It does not rain
 We wanted to know the probability that it rained on Monday and Tuesday.
Tuesday

0.3 It rains 0.2 x 0.3 = 0.06

Monday

It rains
0.2
0.7 It does not rain

0.3 It rains
0.8
It does
not
rain
0.7
It does not rain
We
So can
This the work
is the out path
the that
probability
only probability
it rainsof
through theboth
ontreeevents
Monday happening
whichand
gives us by
Tuesday multiplying
rainison
0.06 the
both days
individual probabilities together
 Actually, we can work out the probabilities of all the possible events

Tuesday

0.3 It rains
Monday

It rains
0.2
0.7 It does not rain
0.2 x 0.7 = 0.14

0.3 It rains
0.8
It does
not
rain
0.7
It does not rain

The probability of rain on Monday, but no rain on Tuesday is 0.14

 Tuesday

0.3 It rains
Monday

It rains
0.2
0.7 It does not rain

0.3 It rains
0.8
It does 0.8 x 0.3 = 0.24
not
rain
0.7
It does not rain
The probability that it will not rain on Monday, but
will rain on Tuesday is 0.24
 Tuesday

0.3 It rains
Monday

It rains
0.2
0.7 It does not rain

0.3 It rains
0.8
It does
not
rain
0.8 x 0.7 = 0.56
0.7
It does not rain
The probability that it does not rain on both days is 0.56
et’s look at the completed tree diagram
Tuesday
0.3 It rains 0.06
Monday

It rains
0.2
0.7 It does not rain 0.14

0.3 It rains 0.24

0.8
It does
not
rain
0.7
It does not rain 0.56
The end probabilities add up to 1. Remember this!
ItWhat
can help you check
do you your answer!
notice?
ry one your self…
Answer
Question 2
Answer
 Probability
robability

By the end of this week’s lessons you should be able to:

1. Recall definitions about probability and how to use the
probability scale
2. Complete sample space diagrams to calculate the
probability of an event
3. Construct tree diagrams to calculate the probability of an
event

32
 LESSON COMPLETE!

SEE YOU NEXT LESSON