Department of Computer Science and Engineering

VIGNAN’S LARA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENCE

Project Review
on

FORECAST AND PREDICTION OF COVID-19 USING MACHINE

LEARNING

Under The Esteemed Guidance of

MS.P.PADMINI RANI Presented by A->14
D.Gayathri 19FE1A0529
M.Tech Ch.Bhargavi 19FE1A0517
Assistant professor B.Rajesh 19FE1A0514
P.Jhansi 19FE1A0552

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 CONTENTS

• Abstract
• Introduction
• Literature Survey
• Existing system
• Proposed system
• Methodology
• Hardware & Software
• Conclusion

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 ABSTRACT

COVID-19 outbreaks only affect the lives of people, they result in a

negative impact on the economy of the country. On Jan. 30, 2020,
it was declared as a health emergency for the entire globe by the
World Health Organization (WHO). By Apr. 28, 2020, more than 3
million people were infected by this virus and there was no
vaccine to prevent.It is important to have early warning methods
through which one can forecast how much the disease will affect
society, on the basis of which the government can take necessary
actions without affecting its economy. In this chapter, we include
methods for forecasting future cases based on existing data. 

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 INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 is not just a name now. It has become a deadly

widespread virus that has affected tens of thousands of people
all over the world. Its origin was China in Dec. 2019. The first
case in India was reported on Jan. 30, 2020 in Kerala. There
were 24,942 cases, out of which 780 died and 5498
recovered.Two classifiers, random forest and extra tree classifier
(ETC), are slected; both have an accuracy of more than 90%. Of
the two, ETC has 93.62% accuracy. These results can be used to
take corrective measures by different government bodies. The
availability of techniques for forecasting disease can make it
easier to fight against infectious disease such as COVID-19.

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 LITERATURE SURVEY 1

In this research, the various social, communal and medical

parameters are analysed and to create the targeted population for
doing the COVID-19 laboratory test. This model classifying the total
population into two classes, they are positive and negative. The
limited positive class only undergo the COVID-19 test cases.

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 LITERATURE SURVEY 1

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 LITERATURE SURVEY 2

Naive Bayes seems a simple classification algorithm but in case of

predictive modeling, it performs an impressive role.Therefore, in
this article with the help of Naive Bayes classifier, a mechanism is
designed to predict the positive case of coronavirus. All the
patients will be diagnosed on the basis of attributes. When patient
notice symptoms discussed, it can be predicted with the
mechanism that the patient has the COVID – 19 or not.

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 LITERATUREa SURVEY 2

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 LITERATUREa SURVEY 3

In this research, Forecasts depend completely on past trends. We

used the most widely used forecasting method, he ARIMA model
for time series forecasting. ARIMA is called t used for time series
data to predict future trends.ARIMA uses a pdq forecasting
equation in which the these parameters are defined as:
• p is the number of observations that have lagged;
• d defines the time (i.e., how many times the raw observations
are different); and
• q defines the size of the MA window.

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 LITERATUREa SURVEY 3

TABLE:

ARIMA Parameter(p,d,q) Configuration

State 5,1,0 3,1,0 1,1,0
Maharashtra 320.31 284.49128.82
Gujarat 454.54 394.30 379.00
Delhi 287.27 319.62125.04
Rajasthan 48.29 75.30 78.25
Madhya Pradesh 92.33 107.07116.64
Tamil Nadu 105.0298.24 51.59
Uttar Pradesh 154.2 237.23144.01
Telangana 12.66 17.97 99.49
Andhra Pradesh 13.59 14.28 29.93
West Bengal 10.90 3.38 21.28
All India 1299.87 758.60 253.60
Error rate (root mean square error value)

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 EXISTING SYSTEM

The availability of techniques for forecasting infectious disease can

make it easier to fight against infectious disease such as COVID-19.
Some ML techniques used to forecast future events are,
Regression analysis like Linear and polynomial have been used for
analysis of Covid-19, where Kaggle dataset has been used. Auto
regression techniques, SEIR models and seasonal periodic
regression model are used to predict COVID-19 outbreaks.

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 PROPOSED SYSTEM

It is believed that the performance of the model can be

improved or the model can give more accurate data if more
datasets are available. The model gives results on the basis of
data developed by information given by health agencies. Thus,
forecasting may not be 100% accurate, but it can surely be used
as a corrective measure. For future work further enhancement
can be done by combining new factors and algorithms with
ARIMA to get more accurate results.

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 METHODOLOGY

Three Modules :
 Data preprocessing
 Machine learning algorithms
 Prediction

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 DATA PREPROCESSING

. 

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 MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHM

. 

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 PREDICTION

PREDICTING FUTURE VALUES :

. 
 Getting variables from data set
 Predicting the values
 Converting into understandable form

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 PREDICTION

. 

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 HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE

Hardware Requirements

• Processor: 1 gigahertz (GHz) or faster processor or SoC

• RAM: 1 gigabyte (GB) for 32-bit or 2 GB for 64-bit
• Hard disk space: 16 GB for 32-bit OS or 20 GB for 64-bit
OS

Software Requirements

• Operating system : Windows

• Back End : MySql
• Code : Python
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 CONCLUSION

Many countries have seen high totals of deaths owing to

COVID-19. It is believed that the performance of the model
can be improved or the model can give more accurate data if
more datasets are available. The model gives results on the
basis of data developed by information given by health
agencies.

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 Any Queries??

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 Thank You

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