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 COURSE CODE: HRM 411

HR DEMAND FORECASTING
METHODS & TECHNIQUES

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Md. Moinul Hossain Ikra Ishrar Sahir Jarin Tasnim Nowrin Digontia Dipty Md. Mynul Islam
ID: 2017-2-10-262 ID: 2018-1-10-056 ID: 2018-1-10-212 ID: 2018-1-10-254 ID: 2018-1-10-313
 AGENDA

TOPIC 1 TOPIC 2 TOPIC 3

Introduction Company Analysis Part 1
Overview

TOPIC 4 TOPIC 5
Analysis Part 2 Findings &
Recommendations
 introduction
A company's most precious asset is its
human capital. Human resource planning is
a method of forecasting future human
resource needs. Human resource forecasting,
commonly known as HR forecasting, is a
method of estimating future staffing needs
based on historical sales data.

OBJECTIVE
❖ To know which method & technique Bat Bangladesh are
using for forecasting.
❖ To know which method is suitable for middle and lower-
level recruiting.
❖ To know the reasons and logics why they are using these
methods.
❖ To know also about the company overview briefly.

Next Md. Moinul Hossain

 Back
“METHODOLOGY”

OPTION A OPTION B
➢ Conversations with the ➢ Different textbooks.
center heads and the center ➢ Different articles.
mangers. ➢ Materials provided by
➢ Practical conversation BATB.
with the employees. ➢ Annual report of BATB.
➢ Practical inspection of ➢ Audit report, etc.
the developments of the
members.
➢ Formal conversation
with the Head Office staffs.

Primary Data Secondery Data

Md. Moinul Hossain

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I am Nowrin
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8
 Back
Company Overview

BAT started its journey in 1902 under the More than 24 thousand people are
name 'Imperial Tobacco'. employed by the company, both directly
and indirectly.

The first factory in Bangladesh was Being a multinational company they try
established in Chittagong in 1949. to maintain high standards of integrity.

BATB is one of the biggest and largest It pays the most tax to the Bangladesh
multinational companies in Bangladesh. government.

It sells approximately 300 brands in It is the private sector's largest revenue source,
180 markets around the world. accounting for about 10% of total internal
revenue.

Jarin Tasnim Nowrin

 Back

Mission Vision

“To achieve Leadership of the Global

“to be the world’s leading Tobacco
Company through competitive
advantages.”
Tobacco Industry not just in volume and
value, but also in the quality of our
business. To be industry tobacco Group
with outstanding people, brands and
superior products.“

Slogan
“Success and responsibility go
together.”
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11
 Analysis part 1 Back

Task To Do
This approach is applied by small as well as large scale organizations. This technique involves two
Managerial types of approaches i.e. 'bottom-up approach' and 'top-down approach'. Under the 'bottom-up
Judgement approach', line mangers send their departmental requirement of human resources to top management.
Top management ultimately forecasts the human resource requirement.

This technique is also known as 'work-load analysis'. This technique is suitable where the estimated
Work-Load work-load is easily measurable. Under this method, estimated total production and activities for a
Approach specific future period are predicted. This information is translated into number of man-hours required
to produce per units taking into consideration the capability of the workforce.

Ratio-Trend Demand for manpower/human resources is also estimated on the basis of ratio of production level and
Analysis number of workers available. This ratio will be used to estimate demand of human resources. The
following example will help in clearly understanding this technique .

Delphi technique is also very important technique used for estimating demand of human resources.
Delphi This technique takes into consideration human resources requirements given by a group of experts i.e.
Technique mangers. The human resource experts collect the manpower needs, summarizes the various responses
and prepare a report. This process is continued until all experts agree on estimated human resources
requirement.

Ikra Ishrar Sahir

 Other Technique
1 2
3

Moving Average & Exponential Regression

Weighted Moving
Average.
Smoothing analysis

1 3 Expert Help-
2 4
Grow & Hoda Vasi
Excel Chowdhury EMC

HR
& Co.
Manpower
5
Point Bangladesh

Ikra Ishrar Sahir

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I am Dipty
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14
 Back
Planning Scenario of conducting HR
Demand Forecasting in BATB

ring of
Need of Monito ce
an
determining compli l
ga
the staff-mix with le ents
m
require

f Need o
ence o f
Occurr ary cost y
Mercur
determ
ss
unnece the
02 g th e s t
inin
ss aff-
to asse te mix
ria
approp vel
le
staffing

03
01
Digontia Dipty
 Back
Tools & Techniques

Delphi
Workload Analysis
Tecnique

2 4

1 3 5

Managerial Regression Exponential Analysis

Judgement Analysis (Short Term)

Digontia Dipty
 Method used in BATB in
different conditions
• Short term (consumption pattern)
Significant drop of sales of BATB in the winter months of January and February, and an increase during
the summer months of June, July, and August. That is why exponential smoothing method needs to be
used.
• For Quickest Forecasting
BATB HR team has around 25 employees leading by the Head of HR. BATB top management uses
managerial judgement for quickest forecasting
• For frequent change situation
BATB's sales grew by 22.2% in the first nine months of FY21 which is mainly driven by a 23.5% growth in
the domestic cigarette sticks sales. Regression analysis is done as it depends on sales volume.
• For determining length of operation
The workload analysis is used in BATB to measure the length of operation and the amount of Labor
required (currently 1,200 people as direct employees and more than 50,000 people as indirect
employees who are mostly farmers).

Digontia Dipty
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18
Findings

By doing this report we find that BATB mainly

follows the quickest HR demand forecasting
01 method for their future workload and employee
efficiency.

We find out that they mainly follow the exponential

02 smoothing method for their demand forecasting. By
using this method, they can find out how many
employees they have needed to run their organization.

We also find out how they analyze their

03 organization’s workload and which
method they mainly follow.

Md. Mynul Islam

 People perceive that people are available in
abundance in our labor surplus economy. By
doing it frequently can spend time and
money in forecasting human resources.

The HR demand forecasting based on such

estimates are endangered to be flopped. So
expert people should do this in BATB.

In the absence of reliable data, it becomes

difficult to develop effective HR demand
forecasting. So, Reliable data should be
found by the HR of BATB.

Md. Mynul Islam

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