"The second wave may develop

unexpected power"

Virologist at Berlin Charite Clinic Christian Drosten and epidemiologist

Michael Mayer-Herman warned that if the restrictions imposed because of the
coronavirus are relieved too soon, there is a big one the likelihood of a
second wave of the epidemic. And this second one a wave can develop
unexpected power.
In an interview with Taggeshpigel, Mayer-Herman explains that at a
reproduction rate of 1 - that is, when one patient infects only one other
person, to create the so-called. herd immunity would it took 25 years.
Clearly, such a thing is unacceptable. More more that in there is no
vaccine yet. So the scientist pleads fornmaintaining strict restrictive
measures to keep the virus "dry". It means to maintaina reproduction factor
of 0.2 or 0.3. Otherwise, says Mayer-Herman, we will have to live with
restrictions for a long time.

Existing simulators cannot model the change the reproduction rate β

during simulation
SIR MODELS FLOWS BETWEEN 3 CATEGORIES
OF INDIVIDUALS:

 Susceptible individuals without immunity to the disease,

who may be infected with a certain probability;
 Infectious people are Infectious and can spread it by
infecting others;
 Recovered individuals can no longer become infected,
usually because they have immunity from previous exposure.
Many SIR-based models suggest that a recovered person
remains immunized, which is often appropriate if the immunity
is long-lasting (eg varicella) or the disease is modeled for a
relatively short period of time.
IT IS MODELED WITH 3 CONDITIONS WITH
THE FOLLOWING TRANSITIONS FOLLOWING
THEIR:
Susceptible Infected Recovered

β* S * I γ* I
S I R
The change in individual states over time is:
dS
  βS( t )I( t )
dt
dr ds di dr
 γi( t )   1
dt dt dt dt
di
 βs( t )i( t )  γi( t )
dt
 Susceptible Infected Recovered

β* S * I γ* I
S I R

S n  S n 1  βS n 1 In 1
The work of β,
S (malleable before) and
Susceptible now
I (infected before)

Susceptible before
 Susceptible Infected Recovered

β* S * I γ* I
S I R

I n  I n 1  βS n 1 I n 1  γI n 1
β.S.I -the new ones-γ.I the new ones
infected recovered
Infected
now

Infected
before
 Susceptible Infected Recovered

β* S * I γ* I
S I R

R n  R n 1  γI n 1

Recovered +γ.I the new ones

now recovered

You are Recovered

before
Model at low values ​of β -
disease transmission rate (infection)

People
Susceptible

Recovered

Infectious

Days
Model at high values ​of β -
disease transmission rate (infection)

People

Recovered
Susceptible

Infectious

Days
Quarantine model until the 70th day, the peak was seen
on the 60th day, then the quarantine was removed

People
Recovered

Susceptible

Infectious

Days
Quarantine model by day 80, the peak was seen on day
60, then quarantine was removed

People
Recovered

Susceptible

Infectious

Days
Quarantine model by day 90, the peak was seen on day
60, then quarantine was removed

People

Recovered

Susceptible

Infectious

Days
 Quarantine model until day 100, then quarantine is
removed, first peak on day 60, second peak on day 12.
Not everyone gains public immunity.

People
Recovered

Susceptible

Infectious Days
Quarantine model until the 150th day, then the
quarantine is removed, two peaks on the 60th day and
160th day

People
Recovered

Prejudice-
laid

Infectious Days
Quarantine model up to the 100th day, then the
quarantine was removed, the peak was seen on the 60th
day

People
Recovered

Susceptible

Infectious Days
 SEIR model

Availability of significant incubation period during which

individuals were infected but still they are not infectious;

During this period the individual is able E (Exposed)

exposed)

Susceptible Infected Infected Recovered

S W I R
e
ll
 Model for COVID-19

Availability of significant latent period, through which

individuals have no symptoms but are infectious

During this period the individual is able L (Latent Infected)

Susceptible Contaminants Infected Recovered

S L I R
SEIR quarantine model made with on-line simulator. A
major drawback is that no modification of the measures
(ie quarantine) can be modeled.

People
Rabbits and Foxes Classic Task
After a long hiatus, a scarier picture ...
It's similar to the planet's demographic response curve
CONCLUSIONS:
Strict quarantine must remain until at least 20% of the peak;
A new model must be developed to describe COVID-19, in
which to be modeled the long latency period of infection
and be take into account the likelihood of reinfection;
Massive type tests are required to produce an accurate
analytical model IgM, IgG (and IgA).