Experimental and

Theoretical
Probability
Experimental and Theoretical Probability
Introduction
Nilo and Lina are drawing a marble from the
plastic bottle containing 6 marbles colored blue (B),
yellow (Y), red (R), violet (V), orange (O), and green
(G). Nilo draws a marble and shows the color to Lina
for recording the color. Then Nilo puts back the
marble into the bottle, shakes it a bit and draws
again. Lina records again the color. After the two
trials, Nilo repeats the same process up to 25 trials.
Experimental and Theoretical Probability
Here is the result of the 25 trials.
Trial 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Result Y R B V R O O G

Trial 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Result B Y Y R O G G G

Trial 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Result R B R G O Y B O G
Experimental and Theoretical Probability

As we all know, the sample space for drawing a

marble from the bottle is {B, Y, R, V, O, G} and the
probability of G is or . This value is based on the
formula of probability of an event called theoretical
probability. There is no actual performance of the
experiment to get the value or .
Experimental and Theoretical Probability

In the above experiment, of 25 trials, G

appears 6 times out of 25. So, the probability
of G, in this case, is or 24%. This value is
derived from actual performance of the
experiment done 25 times called experimental
probability.
Experimental and Theoretical Probability

Why 25 trials? We need 25 or more trials so

that value derived from an experimental
probability can be close enough to the
theoretical probability. The more trials, the
greater is the chance for us to get a good
approximation of the theoretical probability.
Experimental and Theoretical Probability

Take Note
 In a theoretical probability, the value is derived
from a mathematical formula
 In an experimental probability, the value is
derived from a simulation or an actual
performance of the experiment for a certain
number of trials.
Experimental and Theoretical Probability
Example 1:
Consider an experiment of tossing two coins 100 times.
The possible outcomes of the experiment are HH, HT, TH,
and TT. The table below gives the results of tossing two
coins 100 times.
Outcome Frequency
HH 26
HT 23
TH 24
TT 27
Experimental and Theoretical Probability
Answer the following questions.

a. What is the experimental probability of obtaining 2

heads?
b. What is the experimental probability of obtaining a
tail on the second coin?
Experimental and Theoretical Probability
Solutions
a. From the table, 2 heads appear 26 times in 100
tosses of two coins, therefore, the experimental probability
of obtaining 2 heads is or 26%.
b. Let E be the event that a tail occurs on the second
coin. Then E = {HT, TT}. From the table, E occurs 23 + 27 =
50 times in 100 tosses of two coins. Therefore, the
probability of obtaining a tail on the second coin is or
50%.
Experimental and Theoretical Probability
Example 2:
A spinner with 8 sectors numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8
is spun 150 times. If the number “2” occurs 35 times what is
the experimental probability of getting a “2”

Solution
Since “2” occurs 35 times in 150 spins, the experimental
probability of obtaining “2” is or %.
Experimental and Theoretical Probability
Example 3:
In rolling a fair die, the sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
Since the die is fair, each outcome has a probability of 1/6.
That is
P(1) = P(2) = P(3) = P(4) = P(5) = P(6) = 1/6 and the sum of the
probabilities of all the outcomes in S is equal to 1.
What is the probability of getting
a. an odd number?
b. a number less than 5?
c. a number greater than 6?
Experimental and Theoretical Probability
Solutions:
Since the number of outcomes in S is 6, then N = 6
a. Let E be the event that the number is odd. Then
E = {1, 3, 5}, so that n = 3, and P(E) =
b. Let F be the event that the number is less than 5. Then
F = {1, 2, 3, 4}, so that n = 4 and P(F) =
c. Let G be the event that the number is greater than 6. Since
there in no number greater than 6, then G = Ø and P(G) = 0.
Experimental and Theoretical Probability
Example 4:
An urn contains 12 balls of which 5 are red, 4 are white,
and 3 are blue. If a ball is drawn at random, what is the
probability that it is
a. a red ball?
b. a white ball or a blue ball?
c. not a blue ball?
Experimental and Theoretical Probability
Solutions
Since the urn has 12 balls, there are 12 outcomes in the sample
space S. Hence, N = 12.
a. Let R be the event that a red ball is drawn. Since there are 5
red balls, n = 5, and P(R) =
b. Let T be the event that a white or a blue ball is drawn. Since
there are 4 white balls and 3 blue balls, n = 7, and P(T) =
c. Let H be the event that the ball drawn is nor blue. If the ball is
not blue, then it is either red or white. Hence, n = 9 and P(H) =