Risk Level

Assessment of
Covid-19 Omicron
Variant in Affected
Countries

John Paul Avila

Jon Dampil
Faith P. Macatangay
Jhun Jhun B. Maravilla
Charlene Dianne Nicomedes
Abby Kate C. Orioque
Content

▪ Abstract
▪ Introduction
▪ Results
▪ References
Abstract
 The Covid-19 Omicron variant has higher transmissibility, it is
expected that a new wave of the epidemic will begin in January
2022. However, the size and impact on the wave is still unknown,
and it will be determined by the variant's properties, its capacity to
spread and prevalence, the impact of vaccination, the impact of
infection control methods, and the impact of self-selected behavioral
changes.
 This study shows the Risk Level Assessment of Covid-19
Omicron Variant in Affected Countries with the help of a machine
learning algorithm to precisely represent and calculate the known
data to date of Omicron variant affected countries. With the help of
these algorithms and available data from reliable resources, the
researchers aim to assess and evaluate if a certain impacted
country is a High, Medium, or Low-Risk for the Covid-19 Omicron
Variant.
 The researchers focused on the assessment and evaluation
process by using machine learning algorithms to provide accurate
results based on the numbers given on the datasets. The dataset
bears information limited to the date it was published hence,
research will be limited to the said information. If assessment for the
latest status of countries against the omicron variants will be
required, a new dataset must be analyzed and provided.
Introduction
 In comparison to Delta, a review of UK data revealed higher
household transmission risk, increased secondary attack rates, and
significantly increased growth rates. Omicron continues to grow as a
percentage of UK cases, and it is currently the most common in
England. This advantage in growth can also be seen in other
countries with comparable surveillance. Immune evasion or
transmissibility could explain the observed growth advantage.
Despite the fact that we now have great confidence in a significant
component of immune evasion, the extremely rapid growth rate and
laboratory studies suggest that an increase in transmissibility may
also be a factor.
 With the presence of a furin cleavage site and nucleocapsid
modifications associated in vitro with replication advantages,
increased transmissibility relative to Delta is biologically
conceivable. The receptor binding region has undergone significant
modifications, yet laboratory tests have not confirmed the predicted
extremely high receptor binding affinity. Early evidence reveals that
in vitro, changes in cell entrance and enhanced replication occur in
upper airway cells. There is, however, no convincing epidemiological
evidence of transmissibility as opposed to other factors that
contribute to growth advantage.
Results
Top 20 Countries with the Most COVID-19 Omicron
Variant

1 United States 2,081,677

2 United Kingdom 1,559,482
3 Germany 327,143
4 Denmark 280,370
5 Canada 181,885
6 Japan 177,839
7 France 150,116
8 Sweden 137,854
9 Switzerland 99,667
10 India 91,028 Source: www.kaggle.com
Top 20 Countries with the Most COVID-19 Omicron
Variant

11 Brazil 90,020
12 Netherlands 82,747
13 Italy 79,618
14 Spain 78,239
15 Turkey 76,858
16 Belgium 75,027
17 Australia 47,199
18 Ireland 45,428
19 Slovenia 43,676
20 Mexico 42,833 Source: www.kaggle.com
Graphical Representations
Total Omricron Cases and Case Predictions for 2022
United States
United Kingdom
Germany
Denmark
Canada
Japan
France
Sweden
Switzerland
India
Brazil
Netherlands
Italy
Spain
Turkey
Belgium
Australia
Ireland
Slovenia
Mexico
COVID-19 Travel Health Notice Level

LEVEL 4 LEVEL 3 LEVEL 2 LEVEL 1

VERY HIGH HIGH MODERATE LOW
Incidence Rate More than 100-500 50-99 Fewer
(new cases over 500 than 50
past 28 days per
100,000 population)

Source: www.cdc.gov
References
▪ https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/voc/2
021/12/covid-19-omicron-b11529-risk-assessment-dec-7.pdf?sc_l
ang=en

▪ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.21.21268116v1
▪ https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/how-to-thin
k-about-the-risks-of-omicron

▪ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(
21)00174-9/fulltext

▪ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1
▪ https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n3144
Thank you for your attention!