Crude Oil Monthly (Log Scale)

REPRINTED from 10/31/2010

The wave count begins with the December 1998 lows in Crude Oil at $10.35. This was the point that the oil market and industry seemed completely washed out. This was a time of hopelessness for the industry with the widespread belief that oil would never trade above $20 bucks again. It was a period that triggered large scale consolidation/capitulation within the industry with tech stocks being the place to be for most investors. There are a few major takeaways from this chart from an Elliott Wave perspective: The move from $10.35 to $147.27 was a three wave move; and, the initial move down from $147.27 was so violent and short lived, its almost a certainty that its only the first wave of what will be a longer enduring correction. Given those two major ideas, it leads to two basic wave counts. The first is presented here and it predicts another 4 years of triangular congestion which will be a Primary Wave -IV-, which when completed, will lead to a Primary Fifth Wave higher that will test the all-time highs.
( III )

<A>
- III (V)
$147.27

-V-

(B) (D)

( IV ) (E)

-I-

(I) (C) (A) ( II )

- IV 2015

- II -

$10.35

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Crude Oil Weekly (Log Scale)

- III (V)
Several months ago we highlighted the strong potential that were in the midst of a multi year triangle that began at the $147.27 peak. Because this currentl decline is one of the largest weve seen, we have to strongly consider the idea that the (B) wave has finished and were just in the early stages of a (C) wave that will take us back to $45/bbl. It would take a break of $83.85 to confirm that (B) wave is over. Otherwise, there exists a bullish chance were in ( B )? a second x wave. y
e b c

w
g e c a f a d

d b f

a a d b g c

x??
$83.85=Key Support

c e

26.2% Decline

(A)

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Crude Oil Daily (Log Scale)

y e

An expanding triangle must break the a-c line

a d b

c? x??

One of the things about x-waves is their tendency to finish at exact Fibonacci retracements, as opposed to b-waves and waves 2 or 4, which dont seem to adhere to exact retracements. Given that idea, if this an x wave, then $88.86, the 61.8% of y, would be a nice place for it to stop.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

WTI Crude Oil: 120 min. ~ The Bullish Count

Top

The other reason Silver bulls should be worried is the remarkable similarity the chart has to the WTI Crude market right before it fell apart last week. There is a band of support for WTI between $92.50 and $95.00. The -a- = -c- target, though, is far below at $82/bbl. Gasoline should be cheaper right after the summer driving season is over!

REPRINTED from 6/19/2011

(a)

-b(c) (e)

(2)

(d) (1) (b)

-a-

(3)?

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

WTI Crude Oil: 120 min. ~ The Bullish Count

y
This appears to be a classic -abc- setup with a triangle -b- wave. The prime targets are 61.8% of -a- = -c- at $89.95 and -a- = -c- at $82.22. Interestingly, the $89.95 level has been attempting to hold as support. The (1)=(5) target comes in at $89.28, so theres a Wave Zone of support between $89.28 and $89.95. If we include the $88.86 from the previous slide, we could argue that $88.86 - $89.95 is a must hold zone for Crude Bulls. There is $5 of air space below that area.

(a) (c)

-b(e) (2)

(d) (1) (b)

(4)?
$94.35

-a-

In order to prove that the current decline from the -b- wave has concluded, bulls will need to stage a rally larger than any seen on the decline (green box). From Fridays low, that level would be $94.35. Consider that point to be primary resistance for next week. Daredevil bulls that just have to be in this market right now must be willing to endure $1-2/bbl of turbulence and carefully consider the zone of support discussed above ($88.86-$89.95)

(3)? (5)?

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1 or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.