S&P 500 ~ Weekly (Log Scale)

The preferred count would be that were in the midst of an expanding triangle and were currently experiencing the d-wave which should be larger than the c-wave. The implications are that when (if) the S&P 500 takes out the 1370 highs, it will become an epic bull trap, as the e-wave down will be dramatic.

-Bb y
1344

d b

w a
c
1150

b a d
e

x
a
e 1040

The w wave was a contracting triangle with an extreme upward skew. The c & e waves were 78.6% and 38.2% of the a-wave. The d-wave was 78.62% of b-wave. The y wave appears to be a diametric that was exactly 61.8% of w.

c (A)

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 120 min. with Weekly Support and Resistance

b

REPRINTED from 6/19/2011

-b-d-

-a-

-c-

-e-

c? a
Please note that Ive come up with very wide Support and Resistance points for the week ahead. The 1295 resistance is probable the most important level on the chart. Bulls have no case for bottoming action until 1295 can be bettered. The -d- wave rally was the largest countertrend move weve seen since the b-wave peak. The S&P 500 will have to demonstrate a rally larger than that in order to confirm a c-wave conclusion (green dashed box). Its another reason that 1295 looks key in the week ahead.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support and Resistance

b
-b-

y
-d-

-b-a-c-

-a-

-e-

c a
One of the reasons we had wide resistance points on the last update was because of this potential. There was no real resistance for this market once it cleared 1295--just 50pts of air space until 1345. 1345 appears to be decent chart resistance for the first few days of the week. Some sort of early week congestion lower would not surprise as bears defend the potential right shoulder of a H&S development. The unfortunate news for bulls is that the market fees quite extended in the near term and there is no solid support until 1295.
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily non-Log Scale

This is a reprint of a 6/19/2011 slide. If this d-wave fails to exceed 1370, then this will be the likely outcome --a drop back to 1228-1250 for a neutral triangle conclusion.
b y
1344

-b-

-d-

d?
-a-c-

-e-

c? e? x

Its still impossible to tell exactly what sort of triangle were dealing with here. So far, the cwave has looked and behaved like an expanding triangle. As of right now, we cannot even confirm the conclusion of the c-wave. So, its a treacherous trading environment on the S&P 500. One thing Ive noticed with x-waves is their tendency to retrace EXACT Fibonacci numbers. Its one of the reasons Ive been attracted to 1220s as a target for this move. The exact 38.2% would come in at 1228 and would align perfectly with chart support (blue circle.)

1040

If the market happens to follow the path of the dashed arrows, it would set up another fantastic FALSE head and shoulder top. This has been a market prone for the H&S fakeout.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1 or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.