You are on page 1of 97

2 Project Management

Operations
Management

3-1
Bechtel Projects
 Building 26 massive distribution centers in just
two years for the internet company Webvan
Group ($1 billion)
 Constructing 30 high-security data centers
worldwide for Equinix, Inc. ($1.2 billion)
 Building and running a rail line between London
and the Channel Tunnel ($4.6 billion)
 Developing an oil pipeline from the Caspian Sea
region to Russia ($850 million)
 Expanding the Dubai Airport in the UAE ($600
million), and the Miami Airport in Florida ($2
billion)

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3-2


Bechtel Projects
 Building liquid natural gas plants in Yemen $2
billion) and in Trinidad, West Indies ($1 billion)
 Building a new subway for Athens, Greece ($2.6
billion)
 Constructing a natural gas pipeline in Thailand
($700 million)
 Building 30 plants for iMotors.com, a company
that sells refurbished autos online ($300 million)
 Building a highway to link the north and south of
Croatia ($303 million)

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3-3


Strategic Importance of
Project Management
 Bechtel Project Management:
 Iraq war aftermath
 International workforce, construction
professionals, cooks, medical personnel,
security
 Millions of tons of supplies
 Hard Rock Cafe Rockfest Project:
 100,000 + fans
 planning began 9 months in advance

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3-4


Project Characteristics

 Single unit
 Many related activities
 Difficult production planning and
inventory control
 General purpose equipment
 High labor skills

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3-5


Examples of Projects

 Building Construction

 Research Project
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3-6
Management of Projects
1. Planning - goal setting, defining the
project, team organization
2. Scheduling - relates people, money,
and supplies to specific activities
and activities to each other
3. Controlling - monitors resources,
costs, quality, and budgets; revises
plans and shifts resources to meet
time and cost demands

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3-7


Project Management
Activities
 Planning
 Objectives  Scheduling
 Resources  Project activities
 Work break-down  Start & end times
structure  Network
 Organization

 Controlling
 Monitor, compare, revise, action
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3-8
Project Planning,
Scheduling, and Controlling

Figure 3.1
Before Start of project During
project Timeline project
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3-9
Project Planning,
Scheduling, and Controlling

Figure 3.1
Before Start of project During
project Timeline project
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 10
Project Planning,
Scheduling, and Controlling

Figure 3.1
Before Start of project During
project Timeline project
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 11
Project Planning,
Scheduling, and Controlling

Figure 3.1
Before Start of project During
project Timeline project
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 12
Project Time/cost
Planning,
Budgets
estimates

Scheduling, and Controlling


Engineering diagrams
Cash flow charts
Material availability details

Budgets
Delayed activities report
Slack activities report

CPM/PERT
Gantt charts
Milestone charts
Cash flow schedules
Figure 3.1
Before Start of project During
project Timeline project
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 13
Project Planning
 Establishing objectives
 Defining project
 Creating work
breakdown structure
 Determining
resources
 Forming organization

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 14


Project Organization
 Often temporary structure
 Uses specialists from entire company
 Headed by project manager
 Coordinates activities
 Monitors schedule
and costs
 Permanent
structure called
‘matrix organization’

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 15


Project Organization
Works Best When
1. Work can be defined with a specific
goal and deadline
2. The job is unique or somewhat
unfamiliar to the existing organization
3. The work contains complex
interrelated tasks requiring specialized
skills
4. The project is temporary but critical to
the organization
5. The project cuts across organizational
lines
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 16
A Sample Project
Organization
President

Human Quality
Resources Marketing Finance Design Production
Mgt

Project 1 Project
Manager
Mechanical Test
Technician
Engineer Engineer

Project 2 Project
Manager
Electrical Computer
Technician
Engineer Engineer
Figure 3.2

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 17


Matrix Organization
Marketing Operations Engineering Finance

Project 1

Project 2

Project 3

Project 4

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 18


The Role of
the Project Manager
Highly visible
Responsible for making sure that:

1. All necessary activities are finished in order


and on time
2. The project comes in within budget
3. The project meets quality goals
4. The people assigned to the project receive
motivation, direction, and information

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 19


The Role of
the Project Manager
Highly visible
Responsible for making sure that:
Project managers should be:
 Goodare
1. All necessary activities coaches
finished in order
and on time  Good communicators
2. The project comes in within
 Able budget activities
to organize
3. The project meets from a variety
quality goals of disciplines
4. The people assigned to the project receive
motivation, direction, and information

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 20


Ethical Issues
 Project managers face many ethical
decisions on a daily basis
 The Project Management Institute has
established an ethical code to deal with
problems such as:
1. Offers of gifts from contractors
2. Pressure to alter status reports to mask delays
3. False reports for charges of time and expenses
4. Pressure to compromise quality to meet
schedules

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 21


Work Breakdown Structure

Level
1. Project
2. Major tasks in the project
3. Subtasks in the major tasks
4. Activities (or work packages)
to be completed

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 22


Work Breakdown Structure
Develop Windows 7
Level 1 1.0
Operating System

Software Project System


Level 2 1.1 1.2 1.3
Design Management Testing

Develop Module
Level 3 1.1.1 Planning 1.2.1 1.3.1
GUIs Testing

Ensure Compatibility Cost/Schedule Defect


with Earlier Versions 1.1.2 Management 1.2.2 Testing 1.3.2

Compatible with
Level 4 1.1.2.1
Windows ME
(Work packages)
Compatible with
1.1.2.2
Windows Vista

Compatible with Figure 3.3


Windows XP 1.1.2.3

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 23


Project Scheduling
 Identifying precedence
relationships
 Sequencing activities
 Determining activity
times & costs
 Estimating material &
worker requirements
 Determining critical
activities

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 24


Purposes of Project
Scheduling
1. Shows the relationship of each activity to
others and to the whole project
2. Identifies the precedence relationships
among activities
3. Encourages the setting of realistic time
and cost estimates for each activity
4. Helps make better use of people, money,
and material resources by identifying
critical bottlenecks in the project

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 25


Scheduling Techniques
1. Ensure that all activities are planned
for
2. Their order of performance is
accounted for
3. The activity time estimates are
recorded
4. The overall project time is developed

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 26


Project Management
Techniques
 Gantt chart
 Critical Path Method
(CPM)
 Program Evaluation
and Review
Technique (PERT)

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 27


A Simple Gantt Chart

Time
J F M A M J J A S

Design
Prototype
Test
Revise
Production

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 28


Service For a Delta Jet
Deplaning
Passengers
Baggage claim
Baggage Container offload
Pumping
Fueling
Engine injection water
Cargo and mail Container offload
Main cabin door
Galley servicing
Aft cabin door
Lavatory servicing Aft, center, forward
Drinking water Loading
First-class section
Cabin cleaning
Economy section
Cargo and mail Container/bulk loading
Galley/cabin check
Flight services
Receive passengers
Operating crew Aircraft check
Baggage Loading
Passengers Boarding
0 10 20 30 40
Time, Minutes
Figure 3.4
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 29
Project Control Reports
 Detailed cost breakdowns for each task
 Total program labor curves
 Cost distribution tables
 Functional cost and hour summaries
 Raw materials and expenditure forecasts
 Variance reports
 Time analysis reports
 Work status reports

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 30


PERT and CPM
 Network techniques
 Developed in 1950’s
 CPM by DuPont for chemical plants (1957)
 PERT by Booz, Allen & Hamilton with the
U.S. Navy, for Polaris missile (1958)
 Consider precedence relationships and
interdependencies
 Each uses a different estimate of
activity times

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 31


Six Steps PERT & CPM
1. Define the project and prepare the
work breakdown structure
2. Develop relationships among the
activities - decide which activities
must precede and which must
follow others
3. Draw the network connecting all of
the activities

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 32


Six Steps PERT & CPM
4. Assign time and/or cost estimates
to each activity
5. Compute the longest time path
through the network – this is called
the critical path
6. Use the network to help plan,
schedule, monitor, and control the
project

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 33


Questions PERT & CPM
Can Answer
1. When will the entire project be
completed?
2. What are the critical activities or tasks in
the project?
3. Which are the noncritical activities?
4. What is the probability the project will be
completed by a specific date?

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 34


Questions PERT & CPM
Can Answer
5. Is the project on schedule, behind
schedule, or ahead of schedule?
6. Is the money spent equal to, less than, or
greater than the budget?
7. Are there enough resources available to
finish the project on time?
8. If the project must be finished in a shorter
time, what is the way to accomplish this
at least cost?

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 35


A Comparison of AON and
AOA Network Conventions
Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)
A comes before
(a) A B C B, which comes
before C. A B C
A A
A and B must both
(b) C be completed
before C can start. C
B B
B
B and C cannot
(c) A begin until A is B
completed. A
C C
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Figure 3.5 3 - 36
A Comparison of AON and
AOA Network Conventions
Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)

C and D cannot
A C begin until both A C
(d) A and B are
completed.
B D B D

C cannot begin
until both A and B
A C are completed; D A C
(e) cannot begin until Dummy activity
B is completed. A
B D dummy activity is
introduced in AOA. B D
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Figure 3.5 3 - 37
A Comparison of AON and
AOA Network Conventions
Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)

B and C cannot
begin until A is
completed. D
A B D cannot begin A B D
until both B and
(f) C are completed. Dummy
A dummy C
C activity
activity is again
introduced in
AOA.

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Figure 3.5 3 - 38


AON Example
Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing's
Activities and Predecessors
Immediate
Activity Description Predecessors
A Build internal components —
B Modify roof and floor —
C Construct collection stack A
D Pour concrete and install frame A, B
E Build high-temperature burner C
F Install pollution control system C
G Install air pollution device D, E
H Inspect and test F, G

Table 3.1
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 39
AON Network for
Milwaukee Paper

Activity A
A (Build Internal Components)

Start

Activity B
Start B (Modify Roof and Floor)
Activity

Figure 3.6
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 40
AON Network for
Milwaukee Paper
Activity A Precedes Activity C

A C

Start

B D

Activities A and B
Precede Activity D Figure 3.7
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 41
AON Network for
Milwaukee Paper

F
A C

E
Start H

B D G

Arrows Show Precedence


Relationships Figure 3.8
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 42
AOA Network for
Milwaukee Paper
C
2 4
(Construct
Stack)
Co (In F
nt al

nt sta
ne ern
s)
om ld A

(Build Burner)
ro ll
po Int

ls
)
C ui

H
(B

1 Dummy 6 7
E
Activity (Inspect/
Test)
Ro (M B
o f od G ll
/F ify s ta ion
lo
or (In llut ice)
) 3
D
5 Po ev
D
(Pour
Concrete/
Install Frame) Figure 3.9
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 43
Determining the Project
Schedule
Perform a Critical Path Analysis
 The critical path is the longest path
through the network
 The critical path is the shortest time in
which the project can be completed
 Any delay in critical path activities
delays the project
 Critical path activities have no slack
time
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 44
Determining the Project
Schedule
Perform a Critical Path Analysis
Activity Description Time (weeks)
A Build internal components 2
B Modify roof and floor 3
C Construct collection stack 2
D Pour concrete and install frame 4
E Build high-temperature burner 4
F Install pollution control system 3
G Install air pollution device 5
H Inspect and test 2
Total Time (weeks) 25

Table 3.2
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 45
Determining the Project
Schedule
Perform a Critical Path Analysis
Earliest start (ES) = earliest time at
Activity Description
which an activity can start, Time (weeks)
assuming
A Build internal components
all predecessors 2
have been completed
B ModifyEarliest
roof and floor(EF) = earliest time
finish 3 at
C Construct
which collection
an activitystack
can be finished 2
D Pour concrete and(LS)
Latest start install frametime at which
= latest 4
E an activity can start
Build high-temperature so as to not delay
burner 4
F Installthe completion
pollution control time of the entire 3
system
project
G Install air pollution device 5
H InspectLatest finish (LF) =latest time by 2
and test
which an activity has to be finished so
Total Time
as to(weeks)
not delay the completion time 25 of
the entire project Table 3.2
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 46
Determining the Project
Schedule
Perform a Critical Path Analysis
Activity Name
or Symbol
A Earliest
Earliest ES EF Finish
Start

Latest LS LF Latest
Start 2 Finish

Figure 3.10 Activity Duration


© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 47
Forward Pass
Begin at starting event and work forward
Earliest Start Time Rule:

 If an activity has only a single immediate


predecessor, its ES equals the EF of the
predecessor
 If an activity has multiple immediate
predecessors, its ES is the maximum of
all the EF values of its predecessors

ES = Max {EF of all immediate predecessors}

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 48


Forward Pass
Begin at starting event and work forward
Earliest Finish Time Rule:

 The earliest finish time (EF) of an activity


is the sum of its earliest start time (ES)
and its activity time

EF = ES + Activity time

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 49


ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper

ES EF = ES + Activity time
Start
0 0

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 50


ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
EF of A =
ES ES of A + 2
of A
A
Start 0 2
0 0

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 51


ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
A
0 2

2 EF of B =
ES ES of B + 3
0
Start
0 of B
B
0 0 3

3
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 52
ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
A C
0 2 2 4

2 2
Start
0 0

B
0 3

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 53


ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
A C
0 2 2 4

2 2
Start
0 0
= Max (2, 3) D
0
3 7
B
0 3

3
4
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 54
ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
A C
0 2 2 4

2 2
Start
0 0

B D
0 3 3 7

3 4

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 55


ES/EF Network for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

2 2 3
Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5
Figure 3.11

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 56


Backward Pass
Begin with the last event and work backwards

Latest Finish Time Rule:

 If an activity is an immediate predecessor


for just a single activity, its LF equals the
LS of the activity that immediately follows
it
 If an activity is an immediate predecessor
to more than one activity, its LF is the
minimum of all LS values of all activities
that immediately follow it
LF = Min {LS of all immediate following activities}
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 57
Backward Pass
Begin with the last event and work backwards

Latest Start Time Rule:

 The latest start time (LS) of an activity is


the difference of its latest finish time (LF)
and its activity time

LS = LF – Activity time

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 58


LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

2 2 3
Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15
13 15
0 4 2

B LS = LF
D – Activity time
G
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5 LF = EF
of Project
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 59
LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

10 13
2 2 3
Start E H
0 0
LF =4 Min(LS
8 of 13 15
following activity) 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 60


LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper
LF = Min(4, 10)

A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

2 4 10 13
2 2 3
Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
8 13
3 4 5

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 61


LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

0 2 2 4 10 13
2 2 3
Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 62


Computing Slack Time
After computing the ES, EF, LS, and LF times
for all activities, compute the slack or free
time for each activity

 Slack is the length of time an activity can


be delayed without delaying the entire
project

Slack = LS – ES or Slack = LF – EF

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 63


Computing Slack Time
Earliest Earliest Latest Latest On
Start Finish Start Finish Slack Critical
Activity ES EF LS LF LS – ES Path

A 0 2 0 2 0 Yes
B 0 3 1 4 1 No
C 2 4 2 4 0 Yes
D 3 7 4 8 1 No
E 4 8 4 8 0 Yes
F 4 7 10 13 6 No
G 8 13 8 13 0 Yes
H 13 15 13 15 0 Yes

Table 3.3

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 64


Critical Path for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

0 2 2 4 10 13
2 2 3
Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 65


ES – EF Gantt Chart
for Milwaukee Paper
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

A Build internal
components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection
stack
D Pour concrete and
install frame
E Build high-
temperature burner
F Install pollution
control system
G Install air pollution
device
H Inspect and test

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 66


LS – LF Gantt Chart
for Milwaukee Paper
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

A Build internal
components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection
stack
D Pour concrete and
install frame
E Build high-
temperature burner
F Install pollution
control system
G Install air pollution
device
H Inspect and test

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 67


Variability in Activity Times

 CPM assumes we know a fixed time


estimate for each activity and there
is no variability in activity times
 PERT uses a probability distribution
for activity times to allow for
variability

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 68


Variability in Activity Times

 Three time estimates are required


 Optimistic time (a) – if everything
goes according to plan
 Pessimistic time (b) – assuming very
unfavorable conditions
 Most likely time (m) – most realistic
estimate

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 69


Variability in Activity Times
Estimate follows beta distribution
Expected time:
t = (a + 4m + b)/6
Variance of times:
v = [(b – a)/6]2

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 70


Variability in Activity Times
Estimate follows beta distribution
Expected time: Figure 3.12

t = (a + 4m + b)/6
Probability of
Variance of times:
1 in 100 of Probability
Probability

< a occurring of 1 in 100 of


v = [(b − a)/6]2 > b occurring

Activity
Time

Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic


Time (a) Time (m) Time (b)

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 71


Computing Variance
Most Expected
Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Time Variance
Activity a m b t = (a + 4m + b)/6 [(b – a)/6]2

A 1 2 3 2 .11
B 2 3 4 3 .11
C 1 2 3 2 .11
D 2 4 6 4 .44
E 1 4 7 4 1.00
F 1 2 9 3 1.78
G 3 4 11 5 1.78
H 1 2 3 2 .11

Table 3.4

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 72


Probability of Project
Completion
Project variance is computed by
summing the variances of critical
activities
s2 =pProject variance
= (variances of activities
on critical path)

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 73


Probability of Project
Completion
Project variance is computed by
summing the variances of critical
Project variance
activities
s2 =p.11 + .11 + 1.00 + 1.78 + .11 = 3.11

Project standard deviation


sp = Project variance
= 3.11 = 1.76 weeks

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 74


Probability of Project
Completion
PERT makes two more assumptions:

 Total project completion times follow a


normal probability distribution
 Activity times are statistically
independent

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 75


Probability of Project
Completion
Standard deviation = 1.76 weeks

15 Weeks
(Expected Completion Time)
Figure 3.13

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 76


Probability of Project
Completion
What is the probability this project can
be completed on or before the 16 week
deadline?

due expected date


Z = date – of completion /sp

= (16 wks – 15 wks)/1.76


Where Z is the number of
= 0.57 standard deviations the due
date or target date lies from
the mean or expected date
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 77
Probability of Project
Completion
From Appendix I
What is the probability
.00 .01 this project
.07 can
.08
be completed on or before the
.1 .50000 .50399
16 week
.52790 .53188
deadline?.2 .53983 .54380 .56749 .57142

.5
due expected date
Z.69146
= date .69497 .71566 /s
− of completion .71904
p
.6 .72575 .72907 .74857 .75175

= (16 wks − 15 wks)/1.76


Where Z is the number of
= 0.57 standard deviations the due
date or target date lies from
the mean or expected date
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 78
Probability of Project
Completion
0.57 Standard deviations
Probability
(T ≤ 16 weeks)
is 71.57%

15 16 Time
Weeks Weeks
Figure 3.14

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 79


Determining Project
Completion Time
Probability
of 0.99

Probability
of 0.01

2.33 Standard Z
From Appendix I deviations
0 2.33
Figure 3.15

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 80


Variability of Completion
Time for Noncritical Paths
 Variability of times for activities on
noncritical paths must be
considered when finding the
probability of finishing in a
specified time
 Variation in noncritical activity
may cause change in critical path

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 81


What Project Management
Has Provided So Far
1. The project’s expected completion time
is 15 weeks
2. There is a 71.57% chance the equipment
will be in place by the 16 week deadline
3. Five activities (A, C, E, G, and H) are on
the critical path
4. Three activities (B, D, F) are not on the
critical path and have slack time
5. A detailed schedule is available

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 82


Trade-Offs and Project
Crashing
It is not uncommon to face the
following situations:
 The project is behind schedule
 The completion time has been
moved forward

Shortening the duration of the


project is called project crashing
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 83
Factors to Consider When
Crashing a Project
 The amount by which an activity is
crashed is, in fact, permissible
 Taken together, the shortened
activity durations will enable us to
finish the project by the due date
 The total cost of crashing is as
small as possible

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 84


Steps in Project Crashing

1. Compute the crash cost per time period.


If crash costs are linear over time:

Crash cost (Crash cost – Normal cost)


per period = (Normal time – Crash time)

2. Using current activity times, find the


critical path and identify the critical
activities

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 85


Steps in Project Crashing
3. If there is only one critical path, then
select the activity on this critical path
that (a) can still be crashed, and (b) has
the smallest crash cost per period. If
there is more than one critical path, then
select one activity from each critical path
such that (a) each selected activity can
still be crashed, and (b) the total crash
cost of all selected activities is the
smallest. Note that the same activity may
be common to more than one critical
path.
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 86
Steps in Project Crashing
4. Update all activity times. If the desired
due date has been reached, stop. If not,
return to Step 2.

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 87


Crashing The Project
Time (Wks) Cost ($)
Crash Cost Critical
Activity Normal Crash Normal Crash Per Wk ($) Path?

A 2 1 22,000 22,750 750 Yes


B 3 1 30,000 34,000 2,000 No
C 2 1 26,000 27,000 1,000 Yes
D 4 2 48,000 49,000 1,000 No
E 4 2 56,000 58,000 1,000 Yes
F 3 2 30,000 30,500 500 No
G 5 2 80,000 84,500 1,500 Yes
H 2 1 16,000 19,000 3,000 Yes

Table 3.5

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 88


Crash and Normal Times
and Costs for Activity B
Activity
Cost
Crash

Crash Cost – Normal Cost


$34,000 — Crash Cost/Wk =
Normal Time – Crash Time
Crash $33,000 — $34,000 – $30,000
Cost =
3–1
$32,000 — $4,000
= = $2,000/Wk
2 Wks
$31,000 —

$30,000 —
Normal
Normal —
Cost
| | |
1 2 3 Time (Weeks)
Figure 3.16
Crash Time Normal Time
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 89
Critical Path and Slack Times
for Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

0 2 2 4 10 13
2 2 3
Start Slack = 0 Slack = 0 E Slack = 6 H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D Slack = 0 G Slack = 0
0 3 3 7 8 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5

Slack = 1 Slack = 1 Slack = 0


Figure 3.17
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 90
Advantages of PERT/CPM
1. Especially useful when scheduling and
controlling large projects
2. Straightforward concept and not
mathematically complex
3. Graphical networks help highlight
relationships among project activities
4. Critical path and slack time analyses help
pinpoint activities that need to be closely
watched

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 91


Advantages of PERT/CPM
5. Project documentation and graphics
point out who is responsible for various
activities
6. Applicable to a wide variety of projects
7. Useful in monitoring not only schedules
but costs as well

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 92


Limitations of PERT/CPM
1. Project activities have to be clearly
defined, independent, and stable in their
relationships
2. Precedence relationships must be
specified and networked together
3. Time estimates tend to be subjective and
are subject to fudging by managers
4. There is an inherent danger of too much
emphasis being placed on the longest, or
critical, path

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 93


Project Management Software

 There are several popular packages


for managing projects
 Primavera
 MacProject
 Pertmaster
 VisiSchedule
 Time Line
 Microsoft Project

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 94


Using Microsoft Project

Program 3.1

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 95


Using Microsoft Project

Program 3.2
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 96
Using Microsoft Project

Program 3.3

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 3 - 97

You might also like