Effect of alongshore sediment supply gradients on projected shoreline

position under sea level rise (northwestern Portuguese coast)

Laura López-Olmedilla1, Luis Pedro Almeida2,3, Salette Amaral de Figueiredo3, Ángela Fontán-Bouzas1,4, Paulo A. Silva1, Javier Alcántara-Carrió5
1Physics Department & CESAM - Centre of Environmental and Marine Studies, University of Aveiro, Portugal, lauraolmedilla@ua.pt.
2CoLAB +ATLANTIC, Edifício LACS Estrada da Malveira da Serra 920 2750-834 Cascais, Portugal.
3Oceanographic Institute, Federal University of Rio Grande (FURG), km 8 900, Av. Itália - Carreiros, Rio 35 Grande – RS, Brazil.
4Centro de Investigación Mariña (CIM), Universidade de Vigo, GEOMA, Vigo, 36310, Spain.
5Department of Geology and Geochemistry, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.

BACKGROUND

Shoreline changes are associated with natural and anthropic factors, such as sea-level rise (SLR), sediment budget (SB), and beach fills. Shoreline retreat is mainly related to sediment
deficit and sea-level rise. The study area is located along 50 km of the northwestern coast of Portugal, between the Ria de Aveiro lagoon inlet and Mondego Cape (Fig. 1a). The
generalised sediment deficit, caused by widespread dam construction throughout the Douro river basin, intense port activity, and the presence of hard coastal structures has led to long-
term structural shoreline recession in the stretch between profile P1 and P2 (Fig. 1a), with maximum recession rates of -3.5 to -5.8 m/y (from 1958 to 2010). In contrast, the central and
southern areas (from profile P3 to P4) are characterised by stable or accretive shoreline trends, moving 0.2-4 m/y (between 1958 and 2010), and an absence of engineering structures.

OBJECTIVES The overall results indicate that

the key drivers in shoreline
• To analyse future shoreline displacement, in 2050 and 2100, in conditions migration along the coastal
of sea-level rise and unbalanced sediment budgets along a coastal stretch
stretch are not the same for the
located on the northwestern Portuguese coast, using the Random Shoreface different profiles.
Translation Model (RanSTM) developed by Cowell et al. (1992).
Considering only SB (Fig. 3a,b)
• To estimate the nourishment volumes needed to hold the present shoreline areas with a sediment deficit (P1
position under sea-level rise scenarios. and P2) experience shoreline
recession, while shoreline
progradation is observed in
METHODS AND RESULTS sectors with a positive sediment
Figure 3. Shoreline displacement for each profile considering budget (P3 and P4). However,
only sediment budget (SB) a) for 2050 and b)2100. Shoreline considering only SLR, all the
The RanSTM (Cowell et al., 2006) was applied in its stochastic way to forecast the displacement for each profile considering only SLR c) for profiles show shoreline
long-term future shoreline position under conditions SLR and unbalanced sediment 2050 and d)2100. recession.
budgets. Fourteen independent simulations (Fig. 2) were performed for four cross-
shore topo-bathymetric profiles between the Ria de Aveiro lagoon inlet and
Mondego Cape to simulate shoreline displacement in 2050 and 2100, as well as to
estimate the nourishment volumes needed to hold the present shoreline position Considering SB and SLR (Fig.
under sea-level rise scenarios. 4a,b) in areas with a sediment
supply deficit, shoreline
recession increases (Fig.4a,b).

Hence the volume of sand

required to hold the shoreline
position in those zones is
much greater.

In contrast, positive sediment

budgets can mitigate or
reverse the erosion caused by
sea-level rise. Figure 4. Shoreline displacement for each profile considering
combinations of SB and the three scenarios of SLR, a) for 2050
and b) 2100.

CONCLUSIONS

Figure 1. a) Study area, showing the location of the topo-bathymetric
profiles (black lines) and the position of the groynes (grey dots); b)
Topo-bathymetric profiles considered in the RanSTM and pictures of the
coastal areas where profiles P1, P2 and P4 are located, showing the
erosion suffered in the first two profiles.
• The main key drivers in shoreline movement were identified, as well as the nourishment volumes
needed to hold the shoreline position in areas that will become eroded in the future.
• The overall results indicate that coastal erosion will become worse for the northern sector (P1 and
P2) in 2050 and 2100.
• The central sector (P3) will suffer an alteration on its shoreline trend by 2050. At present, this
sector displays a stable shoreline, however, in the future its tendency will become erosive.

• Profiles displaying a sediment deficit (P1 and P2) will require the highest nourishment volumes to
hold their shoreline position in the future.
Acknowledgments

L.L.-O. has been awarded a PhD fellowship (SFRH/BD/131429/2017) by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology. A. F.-B. is supported by a
postdoc fellowship (ED481D2019/028) awarded by the Xunta de Galicia (Spain). Thanks are due to FCT/MCTES for the financial support for CESAM
(UIDP/50017/2020+UIDB/50017/2020), through national funds and the project “Sandtrack-Beach nourishment: An integrated methodology for coastal
management support”, POCI-01-0145-FEDER-031779, funded by the ERDF, through COMPETE2020-POCI, and national funds (OE), through FCT/MCTES.
The authors would like to thank Umberto Andriolo for his assistance with the shoreline detection. Sandra Fernández-Fernández and Caroline Costa Ferreira are
warmly acknowledged for their help during topographical surveys. The Instituto de Oceanografia-Universidade do Rio Grande FURG is also acknowledged.

References
Figure 2. Workflow followed in the application of RanSTM; SLR is sea-level rise and SB is sediment budget.

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