Professional Documents
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MANAGEMENT
Determine
Develop forecasting independent and Forecast objectives
procedure dependent variables
Comprehend total
forecasting procedure
Present all the
assumptions about Make and finalize
Collect, collate, data the forecast
gather and analyze
data
Basic Terms Used in Sales Forecasting
Market demand for a product or service is the
estimated total sales volume in a market (or industry)
for a specific time period in a defined marketing
environment, under a defined marketing program or
expenditure. Market demand is a function associated
with varying levels of industry marketing
expenditure.
Market (or industry) forecast (or market size) is the
expected market (or industry) demand at one level of
industry marketing expenditure
Basic Terms (Continued)
Market potential is the maximum market (or industry)
demand, resulting from a very high level of industry
marketing expenditure, where further increases in
expenditure would have little effect on increase in demand
Company demand is the company’s estimated share of
market demand for a product or service at alternative
levels of the company marketing efforts (or expenditures)
in a specific time period
Market Potential
Market Forecast
Market Minimum
Sales force
Expert opinion Survey of buyer’s Delphi technique
composite
expectation
History analogy
Quantitative methods
Exponential
Moving average Regression method smoothening
Executive opinion method
Most widely used
Procedure includes discussions and / or average of all
executives’ individual opinion
Advantages: quick forecast, less expensive
Disadvantages: subjective, no breakdown into subunits
Accuracy: fair; time required: short to medium (1 – 4 weeks)
Delphi method
Process includes a coordinator getting forecasts separately
from experts, summarizing the forecasts, giving the summary
report to experts, who are asked to make another prediction;
the process is repeated till some consensus is reached
Experts are company managers, consultants, intermediaries,
and trade associations
Delphi Method (Continued)
Advantages: objective, good accuracy
Disadvantages: getting experts, no breakdown into subunits,
time required: medium (3/4 weeks) to long (2/3 months)
Sales force composite method
An example of bottom-up or grass-roots approach
Procedure consists of each salesperson estimating sales.
Company sales forecast is made up of all salespersons’ sales
estimates
Advantages: Salespeople are involved, breakdown into
subunits possible
Disadvantages: Optimistic or pessimistic forecasts, medium to
long time required
Accuracy: fair to good (if trained)
Survey of Buyers’ Intentions Method
Process includes asking customers about their
intentions to buy the company’s products and
services
Questionnaire may contain other relevant
questions
Advantages: gives more market information,
can forecast new and existing products, good
accuracy
Disadvantages: some buyers’ unwilling to
respond, time required is long (3-6 months),
medium to high cost
Historical Analogy Method
This is used for forecasting the demand for product
or service for which there is no past demand data.
Sales il n
e
end
Tr
Time
.
Naïve Method
The simplest trend projection is known as naive
projection
In this approach, the sales of future period are
forecasted as the value of the sales of the previous period
Sales
Sales
Population Population
• data availability
• cost
• variability
• consistency of the data
• the degree of detail necessary
• time horizon
• technical sophistication
• ability of the method to capture the level of risk and
variability
• the level of accuracy of the forecast
• fundamental change indicators
Sales Budgeting
A sales budget consist of estimates of
expected volume of sales and selling
expenses.
Sales volume part of sales budget is based
on forecast. Sales budgets are generally set
slightly lower than the sales forecast to
avoid excessive risk.
Sales Budgeting
The sales volume budget, which from the sales
forecast, is broken down into
a) product-wise quantities, the average selling
price per unit.
b) Territory- wise quantities to be sold and sales
revenue,
c) Sales person wise sales volume
Sales budget include a detailed estimate of sales
revenue and selling expenditure
Sales Budgeting
The selling expenditure budget consists of
1.Selling expense budget
It includes expenditure on personal selling
activities, such as the salaries, commissions
or incentive and other expenses for the
sales force. Any plans of increase in
numbers of salespeople must be included in
this budget
Sales Budgeting
The admistrative budget of the sales
department should include the salaries of
territory sale manager, sales supervisor and
office staff..
Budget should also include operating
expenses like rent, power ,supply, office
equipment etc.
Sales Budgeting
Thus , the sales manager is responsible for
preparing three detailed budgets
1. The sales volume budget
2. The selling expenses budget
3. The administrative budget of the sales
department
Purposes of the Sales Budget
1 Planning
The budgeting process in a company consists of
profit planning based on expected sales, minus the
cost of achieving the sales
2.co-ordination
At the corporate level, the budget process is used
for coordinating the activities of various functional
areas. E.g. sales budget is finalized in a co-
ordination meeting involving the functional head
like production, finance, marketing, and HR
Purposes of the Sales Budget
3.Control
Sales budget stated in terms of sales volume and selling
expenses, become a standard of performance, against
which the actual performance is measured.
Once the yearly sales budget at the company and
marketing unit levels are finalized and broken down to
quarterly and monthly goals, the same is measured
against actual performance
If the actual performance of salesperson or a branch
manager is found to be favorable during the quarterly
budget review meeting. He is appreciated and suitably
rewarded
Method used for deciding
sales expenditure method
1. Percentage of sales method
Sales and marketing managers use this method by
multiplying the sales volume budget by various
percentages of each category of expenses. E.g
travel expenses 3% ad 8% of sales revenue
2.Executive Judgment method
Here the sales manager uses his judgement to
decide the budgeted selling expenses for each
category. The judgement may be based on
marketing and sales plans as well as, sensible
opinions of senior executive
Method used for deciding
sales expenditure method
3. Objective and task method
The first objective is to look at the sales volime objective to
be achieved during the budget period of say one year
Then based on the marketing and sales strategies, the tasks
or actions are decided that are required to be carried out in
order to achieve the earlier stated objective.
The 3rd step is to estimate the costs of carrying out the tasks.
The costs are than added up to find out whether the profit
objective can be achieved
Review of sales revenue, cost, and profit figures continues
until the managers are satisfied with the sales and profit
objective, the tasks, and the budgeted expenditure of various
items of selling expenses
Sales Budget Process
1.Review situation
The sales manager should review the past performance,
current and future marketing environment.
The review of past budget performance can help the
sales manager to understand the deviations of actual
performance against the budget and the items or
elements where the company showed favorable or
unfavorable variance
Review of current and future factor of marketing
environment such as customers, competitors, economy,
technology, govt policy would help the sales manager
to understand the changes taking place in the external
environment
Sales Budget Process
2. Communication
the head of sales function should
communicate in writing to all the field
sales manager about the budget
preparation, including format , guidelines.
Each first line field sales manager
estimates the sales value in units and value
for each products sold along with
estimated selling expenses, sales force
expenses and administrative expenses
Sales Budget Process
3.Subordinate budgets
The first line sales manager prepare the sales
budgets for their respective sales territories
and submit the same to the immediate
reporting managers, who add or modify the
sales budget received from the first line
managers.
The regional/divisional sales manager submit
their sales budgets to NSM, who prepares
company`s proposed sales budget by
combining the budget received from regional
or divisional managers
Sales Budget Process
Use breakdown
method
g
Procedure for designing sales
territories
The first step in territory design is to select a
geographical territorial base, called control unit
that will be used in the territory analysis.
Commonly used control units are states,
metros, city district town. So that control unit
market potential and company sales potential
should be possible to calculate and adjustment
can be possible when tentative boundary is
defined.
Procedure for designing sales
territories
2. Find location and potential of customer
Information of present customers should be
available from the company`s sales analysis
The information of prospective customer can be
obtained not only form the company salespeople,
but also form telephone directories, and market
research studies.
After the present and potential customer are
identified, the company should estimate the total
sales potential for all the customer in each
geographical control unit
Procedure for designing sales
territories
3. Decide Basic Territories
The third step in designing sales territories is to decide
basic or fundamental territories. This can be done by
either using build-up method, or breakdown method.
Buildup method equalizes the workload of salespeople
and is commonly used manufactures of industrial
products and services or by the companies that want
selective distribution strategy
Breakdown method equalized the sales potential of
territory, and is popularly used by manufacturers of
consumers products and services or the firms that want
to adopt intensive distribution strategy
Procedure for designing sales
territories
Build-up Method
The basic territories are set up by building up from
the control units. The objective to be achieved is to
equalize the workload of salespeople
1. Decide call frequencies
It means how many times a customer should be
visited by company`s salesperson per year.
The factor that influence call requency are the
customers sales/ profit potential, cost of visiting the
customers, buying behavior of the customer, and
the nature of the product or service offered.
Procedure for designing sales
territories
District-X District-Y
No. No.
Call of of
Custo freque No. of call call
mer ncy per custom per per
No. Of customers
type month ers year year
A 4 3 144 4 192
B 2 7 168 8 192
c 1 20 240 28 336
Total 30 552 40 720
Procedure for designing sales
territories
2.Calculate the total no. of calls in each control unit.
Total no. of sales call needed in districts x and y are 552 and
720 respectively
3. Estimating workload capacity of a salesperson
A salesperson`s normal workload capacity is estimated by
multiplying average no. of calls a salesperson can make in a
working day by the no. of working day in a year
E.g. the average no. of calls a salesperson make in a day work
out to be 5 based of average travel time of 30 minute per call,
the average length of one hour of each call, and 8 hours per
day working. If the no. of working day in a year is 250 then
estimated workload capacity for the salesperson per year work
out to be 1250 calls( 250X 5)
Procedure for designing sales
territories
4.Make tentative territories
In this step, the company should group adjing
control units until yearly no. of call needed in
those control units equal th total no. of calls a
salesperson can make e.g. district x and y
together need 552 + 720= 1272 visits per years
which is almost equal to 1250 calls of normal
workload of a salesperson
Procedure for designing sales
territories
Break down method
2. Controlling Performance
3. Motivating people
c) Purpose of quotas