Chapter 4

Basic probability

December, 2022/23

By : Dereje B.

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 Independent Event
Event E1 is said to be independent on event E 2 if the
probability of occurrence of E1 is not affected by the
occurrence or nonoccurrence of E2. The probability that
both event will occur in a trial for independent events E 1
and E2 is: PE1 and E2 = PE1*PE2
Example
Three identical, independent machines are connected in
series. The probability of survival of each machine is 0.98
for 1000h of operation. What is the probability that failure
will not occur in the arrangement for 1000 h of operation.
Solution: PE1, E2 and E3 = PE1*PE2* PE3
2 =0.98*0.98*0.98=0.94
 4.2 Conditional probability
Event E2 is said to be conditional on event E 1 when
the probability of occurrence of E2 depends on the
prior occurrence of E1. The probability that E2 will
occur provided E1 has occurred is denoted by PE2/E1,
which is read as “P of E2 given E1”. Here the possible
events are those in E1, and the favorable events are
those in E2 which are also in E1
PE2/E1 =
The probability that both events will occur is:
PE1and E2 = PE1* PE2/E1
3PE2and E1 = PE2* PE1/E2
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 4.3 Probability distribution
A probability distribution is a mathematical
idealization, or model, of the relative frequency
distribution of outcomes of a random experiment. A
probability distribution gives the probabilities of all
possible events that can result from a given trial.
Probability distribution is classified as discrete and
continuous. Those are also classified in different
ways among these:

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 Poisson distribution

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 Example

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 Example 2

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 distribution

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 Thank you

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