THESIS

ANALISIS PENGARUH OVERCONFIDENCE, HERD BEHAVIOR, EXCESSIVE

OPTIMISM, EXCESSIVE PESSIMISTIC DAN PSYCHOLOGY OF RISK TERHADAP
STOCK INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR MAHASISWA DI KOTA BATAM
Supervisor: LADY, SE., MM.
 RESEARCH BACKGROUND
IDX’S TOTAL TRADING BASED ON
INVESTOR TYPE

2015 2016 2017 2017

57% DOMESTIC 63% DOMESTIC 63% DOMESTIC 61% DOMESTIC
INVESTORS INVESTORS INVESTORS INVESTORS
43% FOREIGN 37% FOREIGN 37% FOREIGN 39% FOREIGN
INVESTORS INVESTORS INVESTORS INVESTORS

Source: Indonesia Stock

Exchange
 RESEARCH BACKGROUND
2013 2016 2016
1 2 3
Single Investor Single Growth
Identification Investor 59% Growth on
(SID) Identification SID in just 3 years
320.506 SID (SID)SID
509.842 period

Source: Indonesia Stock

Exchange
 RESEARCH MODEL
Overconfidence Excessive
Optimism
Excessive
Pessimistic

Research Model
Herd Behavior
Stock Investment Psychology of Risk
Behavior

H1: Overconfidence have a positive influence on Investor’s Stock Investment Behavior.

H2: Herd Behavior have a positive influence on Investor’s Stock Investment Behavior.
H3: Excessive Optimism have a positive influence on Investor’s Stock Investment Behavior.
H4: Excessive Pessimistic have a positive influence on Investor’s Stock Investment Behavior.
H5: Psychology of Risk have a positive influence on Investor’s Stock Investment Behavior .
RESEARCH OBJECTIVE

01 02

POPULATION Sample
Batam’s College Student Batam’s College Student that
have any experience by
buying or selling stock
 RESPONDENTS DEMOGRAPHIC
Respondent’s Gender Total Percentage Respondent Income Total Percentage
Male 119 56.67 < Rp. 3.000.000 38 18.1
Female 91 43.33 Rp. 3.000.001 – Rp. 5.000.000 80 38.1
Total 210 100 Rp. 5.000.001 – Rp. 10.000.000 77 36.67
Rp. 10.000.001 – Rp. 15.000.000 10 4.76
Respondent Age Total Percentage Rp. 15.000.001 – Rp. 20.000.000 5 2.37
18 to 25 years old 203 96.67 Rp. 20.000.000 – Rp. 25.000.000 0 0
26 to 35 years old 4 1.9 > Rp. 25.000.000 0 0
36 to 45 years old 3 1.43 Total 210 100
> 46 years old 0 0
Total 210 100 Respondent Period of Investment Total Percentage

Respondent Occupation Total Percentage < 1 month 56 26.67

College Student and Not Working 124 59.05 1 month to months 75 35.71

College Student and Working 76 36.19 6 months to 1 year 48 22.85

1 year to 2 years 17 8.1
College Student and Starting a Business / Entrepreneur 10 4.76
> 2 years 14 6.67
Total 210 100
Total 210 100
 VALIDITY TEST

Validity Test Reliability Test for

Indonesia
Statement Value Validity Statement Value Validity
Variabel Alpha (α) Keterangan
Overconfidence 1 0.880 Valid Psychology of Risk 1 0.760 Valid

Overconfidence 2 0.905 Valid Psychology of Risk 2 0.869 Valid 0,801 Reliabel

Overconfidence 3 0.891 Valid Psychology of Risk 3 0.918 Valid
0,933 Reliabel
Overconfidence 4 0.904 Valid Psychology of Risk 4 0.904 Valid

Herd Behavior 1 0.883 Valid Stock Investment Behavior 1 0.763 Valid 0,734 Reliabel
Herd Behavior 2 0.940 Valid Stock Investment Behavior 2 0.857 Valid
0,770 Reliabel
Herd Behavior 3 0.934 Valid Stock Investment Behavior 3 0.782 Valid

Herd Behavior 4 0.845 Valid Stock Investment Behavior 4 0.788 Valid 0,751 Reliabel
Excessive Optimism 1 0.887 Valid Stock Investment Behavior 5 0.870 Valid
0,831 Reliabel
Excessive Optimism 2 0.905 Valid Stock Investment Behavior 6 0.802 Valid

Excessive Optimism 3 0.912 Valid Stock Investment Behavior7 0.758 Valid

Excessive Optimism 4 0.912 Valid

Excessive Pessimism 1 0.903 Valid

Excessive Pessimism 2 0.903 Valid

 RELIABILITY TEST
Reliability Test

Variable Alpha (α) Reliability

Overconfidence 0.917 Reliabel

Herd Behavior 0.922 Reliabel

Excessive Optimism 0.925 Reliabel

Excessive Pessimism 0.772 Reliabel

Psychology of Risk 0.879 Reliabel

Stock Investment
0.879 Reliabel
Behavior
NORMALITY TEST
 MULTICOLLINEARITY TEST

Variable Tolerance VIF

Overconfidence 0.542 1.846

Herd Behavior 0.778 1.285

Excessive Optimism 0.506 1.975

Excessive Pessimism 0.810 1.235

Psychology of Risk 0.660 1.514

HETEROSCEDASTICITY TEST
 f TEST

f Test Result

Model F Sig.

Regression Residual 76.752 0.000

 t TEST
Coefficientsa

Standardized
Coefficients
Model t Sig.

Beta

Total Overconfidence 0.581 6.233 0.000

Total Herd Behavior 0.238 3.627 0.000

1 Total Excessive Optimism 0.388 4.706 0.000

Total Excessive Pessimism 0.403 2.694 0.008

Total Psychology of Risk 0.220 2.790 0.006

 Adjusted R2 TEST

Model Summary

Adjusted R Std. Error of

Model R R Square
Square the Estimate

1 .820a .672 .644 3.54511

 Structural Model Test Structural Model Test
Result without mediation Result with mediation

X Y Beta T-statistic Information

brand consciousness to brand
loyalty 0.000 5.470 Significant Positive X Y Beta T-statistic Information
social media activities to social media -> brand consciousness -
brand consciousness 0.000 6.094 Significant Positive > brand loyalty 0.003 3.623 Significant
social media activities to soial media -> value consciousness ->
value consciousness 0.000 7.908 Significant Positive brand loyalty 0.000 4.395 Significant
value consciousness to brand
loyalty 0.000 6.581 Significant Positive

X Y Beta T-statistic Information X Y Beta T-statistic Information

brand consciousness to social media -> brand consciousness ->
brand loyalty 0.009 2.608 Significant Positive brand loyalty 0.000 2.177 Significant
social media activities to social media -> value consciousness ->
brand consciousness 0.000 8.584 Significant Positive brand loyalty 0.000 5.504 Significant
social media activities to
value consciousness 0.000 9.132 Significant Positive
value consciousness to brand
loyalty 0.000 10.005 Significant Positive
Coefficient Test Result Quality Index Test
Result
Conclusio Communality Rsquare GoF Conclusion
Variable Adjusted R Square n 0.58825 0.2443 0.3795 Large
Brand loyalty 0.464 moderate
Brand consciousness 0.222 Weak
Value consciousness 0.258 moderate

Conclusio Communality Rsquare GoF Conclusion

Variable Adjusted R Square n 0.5715 0.2696 0.3925 Large
Brand loyalty 0.418 moderate
Brand consciousness 0.214 weak
Value consciousness 0.177 weak
Conclusion
H1: Social media marketing have a positive influence on brand
consciousness that lead to brand loyalty
H2: Brand consciousness has a positive influence on brand
loyalty
H3: Social media activities has a positive influence to value
consciousness that lead to brand loyalty
H4: Value consciousness has a positive influence to brand
loyalty.