Gold Monthly (Log Scale): 60-70 Year Expanding Triangle?

Sometimes its fun to play around with the super long term view. The bottom line for Gold is that weve seen a series of multi-decade corrective waves grouped together. Given that, Im stuck with the concept of a huge triangle. Because of the power of the <C> Wave, we need to seriously consider the concept of the expanding triangle. And, its scary. The implications are that, after all the bad debts get written off in the next few decades, and after all the Baby Boomers are gone, America will experience a massive hyper-inflationary phase. <C>

<E>

2012-2016

(Jan, 1980) $873

<A>

(Nov, 1974) $191

<B>
$260 (Feb, 2001)?

<D> 13 year move down 2025-2029

$101 (Aug, 1976) $35 (Aug, 1970)

<A> WAVE = 10 Years <B> WAVE = 21 Years <C> WAVE = 11-15 Years* <D> WAVE = 13 Years (Fibbo Alternation with <B>)

* <C> Wave can be equal to <A> or can be as long as <A+B>/2 Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold - Weekly Continuation (Log Scale)

As the late great Randy Macho Man Savage used to say: And the beat goes onyeah. Gold has been amazing in the last few years in that it has held to this perfect trend channel. It has had plenty of moments of testing the lower band, but this week we get to see the yellow metal test the upper band. The whole look of the pattern still looks like a symmetrical formation, though the potential (G) wave has developed into an expanding triangle, giving the market the blow off look. This market has a very toppy feel and it appears poised for some consolidation, but its not a longer term sell yet
(G)

-Y(I) (G) (I)

Unfortunately, bulls wont know its a sell until it breaks the lower dashed blue line, which is a long way below.

(H) (E) (H)

(C) (F)

(A) (D)

(B)

REPRINTED from 8/21/2011

-X-

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold - Weekly Continuation (Log Scale)

Last week, it was noted that this market has a very toppy feel and it appears poised for some consolidation, but its not a longer term sell yet Indeed, Gold hit the top of this well established trend channel and then sold off. Market participants should expects several weeks of congestive price action. Given the violent and sharp move off the high, I would expect to see a contracting triangle of some kind.

-Y(I) (G)

(H) (E)

(C)

(F)

(A) (D)

(B)

-X-

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold - Daily Continuation (Log Scale) with RSI

Maybe were seeing some smaller scale RSI divergence on the Daily chart. Ive highlighted here what looks like an expanding triangle pattern up from the $1,308 low.

REPRINTED from 8/21/2011

a d b
1308

$1,478 Important longer term support

(F)
??

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold - Daily Continuation (Log Scale) with RSI

Last weeks action confirms that a wave completed at $1,909. I believe it to be an Intermediate (G) wave of a large/complex symmetrical pattern. That idea would suggest a corrective (H) followed by one last wave higher before a much larger pattern is completed. Over the next several weeks, the $1,643 and $1,576 should be support levels for gold. Its easy to visually a choppy/whipsaw range as both those who are long puts and calls probably lose money in the next few months. The scariest trade on the board would be to go short calls and puts-What kind of idiot would be short volatility in this market?! The most uncomfortable trade is usually the correct one.
Gap

(G) e
1909

$1,643

(H)

c $1,576

1308

(F)
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold - OCT Futures (30 Min.): Weekly Resistance

A gold bear could make an argument that was a five wave move down from the highs. The beginning and end of the structure are a bit messy to jump to that conclusion. Nevertheless, the market decline was impressive enough that shorting into the $1,834 - $1,870 zone seems like a worthwhile endeavor.

$1,854 = Classic Chart resistance

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1 or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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