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  • Demand Forecasting: BY: Prof. Arthur S. Alvarez

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    ALMIRA LOUISE PALOMARIA
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    This document provides a statistical straight line method of projection to forecast demand. It uses a linear regression model where YC = a + b(x), with a being the average Y value over N years and b being the slope calculated from the EXY and EX2 values over those years. The model is fitted to historical population data from 2012-2022 and used to project population forecasts for 2023-2025. The analysis concludes by asking if continuing business operations in the area would be feasible based on projected population growth.

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    This document provides a statistical straight line method of projection to forecast demand. It uses a linear regression model where YC = a + b(x), with a being the average Y value over N years and b being the slope calculated from the EXY and EX2 values over those years. The model is fitted to historical population data from 2012-2022 and used to project population forecasts for 2023-2025. The analysis concludes by asking if continuing business operations in the area would be feasible based on projected population growth.

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    3 views11 pages

    Demand Forecasting: BY: Prof. Arthur S. Alvarez

    Uploaded by

    ALMIRA LOUISE PALOMARIA
    This document provides a statistical straight line method of projection to forecast demand. It uses a linear regression model where YC = a + b(x), with a being the average Y value over N years and b being the slope calculated from the EXY and EX2 values over those years. The model is fitted to historical population data from 2012-2022 and used to project population forecasts for 2023-2025. The analysis concludes by asking if continuing business operations in the area would be feasible based on projected population growth.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 11

    DEMAND FORECASTING

    BY:

    PROF. ARTHUR S. ALVAREZ


    STATISTICAL STRAIGHT LINE METHOD OF
    PROJECTION

    YC = a + b (x)

    Where:
    a = EY/N
    b = EXY/EX2
    N Y X X2 XY YC
    2013 1500

    2014 2000

    2015 3500

    2016 4000

    2017 4700

    2018 5800

    2019 7000

    2020 12000

    2021 19000

    2022 23000

    TOTAL EY=? EX2= ? EXY= ? EYC= ?

    2023 ? ?

    2024 ? ?

    2025 ? ?

    2026 ? ?

    2027 ? ?
    N Y X X2 XY YC
    2012 1500 -9 81 -13500

    2013 2000 -7 49 -14000

    2014 3500 -5 25 -17500 -61700


    2015 4000 -3 9 -12000

    2016 4700 -1 1 -4700

    2017 5800 1 1 5800

    2018 7000 3 9 21000 426800

    2019 12000 5 25 60000

    2020 19000 7 49 133000

    2021 23000 9 81 207000

    TOTAL 82500 330 EXY= EYC=

    2022 ? ?
    2023 ? ?
    2024 ? ?

    2025 ? ?

    2026 ? ?
    YC = a + b (x)

    a = EY/n = 82500/10
    a = 8250

    b = EXY/EX2 = 365100/330
    b = 1106.36

    Where:
    N = Year = 10
    Y = Population = 82500
    HOW TO COMPUTE YC

    YC 2023 = a + b (x)
    = 8250 + 1106.36 (11)
    = 12169.96 + 8250
    YC2023 = 20420
    YC 2024 = a + b (x)
    = 8250 + 1106.36 (13)
    = 14382.68 + 8250
    YC2024 = 22633
    YC 2025 = a + b (x)
    = 8250 + 1106.36 (15)
    = 16595.40 + 8250
    YC2025 = 24845.40
    ANALYSIS:

    • Is Jollibee West Rembo, Makati


    feasible to continue their
    business? Yes or No?
    • Answer?
    N Y X X2 XY YC
    2013 23000

    2014 27000

    2015 34000

    2016 37000

    2017 45000
    2018 86000
    2019 98000

    2020 150000

    2021 200000

    2022 270000

    TOTAL EY= EX2= EXY=

    2023 ? ?

    2024 ? ?

    2025 ? ?

    2026 ? ?

    2027 ? ?

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