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Macroeconomics: Introduction and Measurement Issues
Macroeconomics: Introduction and Measurement Issues
Chapter 1
Introduction and
Measurement Issues
1911
1923
1935
1959
2007
1887
1899
1947
1971
1983
1995
9
From CORE:
South African Real GDP Per Capita
60000
55000
45000
COVID (Unit 1) not clearly
visible
40000
- Growth not smooth
- Cannot effectively
35000 showcase growth
rate
30000
25000
20000
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
10
From CORE:
Natural log of South African Real GDP Per Capita
11
10.9
Graph shows log real
10.8 GDP per Capita:
Impact of - Shows economic
Natural log of Real GDP per capita
10.7
COVID growth rate more
10.6
effectively
- Dashed line (slope)
10.5 shows average
annual growth rate
10.4 - Long-run growth in
unit 16 & 17. This
10.3
unit focuses on
10.2 fluctuations.
10.1
10
1976
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
11
SA real GDP per capita (2015 prices)
90000 6
80000 4
70000
2
60000
0
50000
-2
40000
-4
30000
-6
20000
10000 -8
0 -10
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
12
Figure 1.3
Natural Logarithm of Per Capita Real
GDP and Trend
Figure 1.4
Percentage Deviations from Trend in
Per Capita Real GDP
Macroeconomic Models
• A macroeconomic model captures the essential
features of the world needed to analyze a particular
macroeconomic problem.
• Macroeconomic models should be simple, but they
need not be realistic.
Basic Structure of a Macroeconomic
Model
• Consumers and Firms
• The Set of Goods that Consumers Consume
• Consumers’ Preferences
• The Production Technology
• Resources Available
What Do We Learn From
Macroeconomic Analysis? Part I
• What is produced and consumed in the economy is
determined jointly by the economy’s productive
capacity and the preferences of consumers.
• In free market economies, strong forces tend to
produce socially efficient economic outcomes.
• Unemployment is painful for individuals, but it is a
necessary evil in modern economies.
• Improvements in a country’s standard of living are
brought about in the long run by technological
progress.
What Do We Learn From
Macroeconomic Analysis? Part II
• A tax cut is not a free lunch.
• Credit markets, banks play key roles in the
macroeconomy.
• What consumers and firms anticipate for the future has
an important bearing on current macroeconomic
events.
What Do We Learn From
Macroeconomic Analysis? Part III
• Money takes many forms, and society is much better
off with it than without it. Once we have it, however,
changing its quantity ultimately does not matter.
• Business cycles are similar, but they can have many
causes.
What Do We Learn From
Macroeconomic Analysis? Part IV
• Countries gain from trading goods and assets with each
other, but trade is also a source of shocks to the
domestic economy.
• In the long run, inflation is caused by growth in the
money supply.
• If there is a short-run tradeoff between output and
inflation, that has very different implications relative to
the relationship between nominal interest rates and
inflation.
Understanding Recent and Current
Macroeconomics Events
• Aggregate Productivity
• Unemployment and Vacancies
• Taxes, Government Spending, and the Government
Deficit
• Inflation
• Interest Rates
• Business Cycles in the United States
• Credit Markets and the Financial Crisis
• The Current Account Surplus
Figure 1.5
Natural Logarithm of Average Labour
Productivity
Figure 1.6
The Unemployment Rate for the United
States
Figure 1.7
The Beveridge Curve
Figure 1.8
Total Taxes and Total Government
Spending
Figure 1.9
Total Government Surplus
Figure 1.10
The Inflation Rate
Figure 1.11
The Nominal Interest Rate and the
Inflation Rate
Figure 1.12
Real Interest Rate
Figure 1.13
Percentage Deviation From Trend in
Real GDP
Figure 1.14
Interest Rate Spread
Figure 1.15
Relative Price of Housing
Figure 1.16
Exports and Imports of Goods and
Services
Figure 1.17
The Current Account Surplus