Guus Velders, The Netherlands

Importance of the
Montreal Protocol
for ozone layer and
climate

WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers

Geneva, May 19, 2008

Well known benefits Montreal Protocol
Large decreases in CFC
production (90%) and
emissions (60-90%)

Concentrations also decreasing

Increases for HCFCs and HFCs

WMO (2007)

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 2

Well known benefits Montreal Protocol (2)
• Emerging evidence of start of
ozone layer recovery
• Full recovery around 2050
• Polar regions 10-25 years later

• Recovery can be affected by:

– Future production CFCs, HCFCs
– Production methyl bromide
– Emissions from existing
equipment
– Interaction with climate change
WMO (2007)

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 3

Montreal Protocol provided dual protection:
to Ozone layer and to Climate change

 Climate benefits already achieved larger than Kyoto

Protocol targets for 2008-2012

 Potential for additional climate benefits significant

compared to Kyoto

Reason: CFCs, HCFCs are greenhouse gases  Large

GWPs: - CO2 : 1
- CFCs: 4,000 – 11,000
- HCFCs: 700 – 2,300

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 4

Decrease in production of CFCs
• 1974: Molina and Rowland: CFCs
affect the ozone layer
- Public concern  drop production

• ~1980: Increase in production:

- New applications
- Growth in Asia and Europe

• 1987: Montreal Protocol:

- Restricting prod/use CFCs, halons

• 2010: Global production stop CFC

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 5

Production scenarios

Without 1974 paper

Molina and Rowland:
3-7% annual growth

Without 1987
Montreal Protocol:
2-3% annual growth

Baseline:
- current Montreal Protocol
- in agreement with observations
- used in WMO (2007)

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 6

Concentration scenarios
• Delays compared to prod/emis.
due to long lifetimes

• Exponential growth without early

warning in 1974

• Continued growth without

Montreal Protocol

Velders et al., PNAS, 2007

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 7

Effect on ozone layer
• Mid-latitude: EESC back to 1980-
levels around 2050

• Polar region: EESC back to 1980-

levels around 2065:
– Older age of air in polar vortex

• Large ozone depletion without

Montreal Protocol and
amendments

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 8

Ozone layer recovery
• Largest potential reductions:
– Destruction of banks of CFCs
– Destruction of banks of halons
– Limiting future production of HCFCs

• Interaction with climate change:

– Cooling upper stratosphere  ozone increase
– Cooling lower stratosphere  more activation on PSC 
ozone destruction
– Circulation changes

 Overall effect uncertain

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 9

Effects on climate
CO2 emissions

World avoided by the

Montreal Protocol

Reduction Montreal Protocol of

~11 GtCO2-eq/yr
5-6 times Kyoto target
(incl. offsets: HFCs, ozone depl.)

Velders et al., PNAS, 2007

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 10
Radiative forcing leading to climate change

Forcing: delay of ~10 years cf

CO2 emissions
10 years

Reduction in radiative forcing of

~0.23 Wm-2 in 2010
about 13% of CO2 emissions
of human activities

Velders et al., PNAS, 2007

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 11
Ozone-depleting substances not in Kyoto
 Total target Kyoto: about 2 GtCO2-eq/yr

• CFCs not included in Kyoto Protocol

– Already covered and soon to be phased out
– Benefits for polluting countries
– Separate protocols
– Negative offset potentially large

• With Montreal Protocol, CFCs likely included in Kyoto

Protocol, but:
– Effects at least 10 years later
– Starting at much higher baseline
– Harder to eliminate
Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 12
Offsetting the climate benefits
• About 80% of ozone depleting-substances replaced by
non-fluorocarbons
• Substitute gases for CFCs
– HFCs and HCFCs
– HFC emissions: 0.9 GtCO2-eq/yr by 2010 (IPCC)
• Negative radiative forcing of ozone depletion
– IPCC estimate of -0.05 +/- 0.05 W/m2 for 1979-2005

• Total offsets about 30% of direct forcing

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 13

Montreal 2007 adjustment: HCFC phase-out
September 21, 2007 in Montreal:
• Adjustment of Montreal Protocol: accelerated HCFC phase-out
• Climate effects taken into account

• Developed countries:
– Phase-out from 2030  2020 (+ intermediate reductions targets)

• Developing countries:
– Freeze in 2012
– Phase-out from 2040  2030 (+ intermediate reductions targets)
– Base level from 2015  average 2009-2010

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 14

Montreal 2007 adjustment: HCFC phase-out
Recovery ozone layer ~3 years
earlier

Reduction in emissions:
• 7-9 Mtonnes HCFCs
• 0.35-0.45 MtCFC-11-eq
• 12-15 GtCO2-eq  ~100 million
cars per year

• Effects depend on alternatives

being used

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 15

Possible additional benefits
• Better containment in
refrigeration
• Destruction of ODS banks
• Alternatives with lower GWPs

• Potential reductions:
(by 2015 in GtCO2-eq/yr)
– CFCs: 0.12
– HCFCs: partly done
– HFC-23: 0.30 (by-product)
– HFCs: 0.44 (alternative
.
chemicals)

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 16

Conclusions
Montreal Protocol provided dual protection:
to Ozone layer and to Climate change

• Already achieved climate benefits 5-6 times larger than

Kyoto Protocol targets for 2008-2012
• Montreal Protocol: delay in CO2-forcing of ~10 years

• Montreal 2007 adjustment:

– Emissions reduced by 12-15 GtCO2-eq (depends on replacements)
– Ozone layer recovery ~3 years earlier

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 17

Conclusions (2)
• Potential for additional climate benefits significant
compared to Kyoto Protocol targets (2008-2012):
– Better containment in refrigeration
– Destruction of CFCs, HCFC in exiting refrigerators, foams
– Alternatives with lower GWPs

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 18

Study in close collaboration
with:

Stephen Andersen (EPA)

John Daniel (NOAA)
David Fahey (NOAA)
Mack McFarland (DuPont)

Thank you for

your attention

Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 19