IGCSE GEOGRAPHY

1. POPULATION DYNAMICS
INCREASE IN THE WORLD’S POPULATION
OVER AND UNDER POPULATION
ANTI AND PRO NATALIST POLICIES
CASE STUDIES
CHINA’ S ONE CHILD POLICY
FRANCE POPULATION
STRATEGIES
BRISTOL’S CASE STUDY
Define ‘population’, ‘population growth
rate’ and ‘population explosion’. Define
the term ‘carrying capacity’. Introduce the
concept of ‘optimum population’. Case
study of a country which is over-populated
and a country which is under-populated.
Define key words ’birth rate’, ‘death rate’,
‘natural increase’ and ‘natural decrease’.
Describe and evaluate two population
policies as part of the case studies above –
one ante- natalist and one pro-natalist.
Population pyramids show the structure of a
population by comparing relative numbers of
people in different age groups.
Population structures differ markedly
between LEDCs and MEDCs.
Demographic transition models show population
change over time - and also show marked
differences between LEDCs and MEDCs.
At present the world's population is growing
quickly, though this has not always been the
case.
Until the 1800s the world's population grew
slowly for thousands of years.
In 1820 the world's population reached
one billion.
In the early 1970s, the world's
population reached three billion.
In 1999, less than 30 years later, the
population doubled to six billion.
The global rate of population growth is now
one billion every 15 years.
The graph shows this pattern of
accelerating growth (including
the predicted population for
2025).
The three main causes of population
change:
Births - usually measured using the birth rate
(number of live births per 1,000 of
the population per year).
Deaths - usually measured using the
death rate (number of deaths per 1,000
of the population per year).
Migration - the movement of people in and out
of an area.
Births and deaths are natural causes of
population change.
The difference between the birth rate and the
death rate of a country or place is called the
natural increase.
The natural increase is calculated by subtracting
the death rate from the birth rate.

natural increase = birth rate - death rate

The rate of natural increase is given as a
percentage, calculated by dividing the natural
increase by 10.
For example, if the birth rate is 14 per 1,000
population, and the death rate is 8 per 1000
population, then the natural increase = 14 - 8 =
6.
That is 6/1000, which is equal to 0.6%.
Rates of population growth vary across the world. Although
the world's total population is rising
rapidly, not all countries are experiencing this
growth.
In the UK, for example, population growth is slowing,
while in Germany the population has started to decline.
MEDCs have low population growth rates, with low
death rates and low birth rates.
Population will decline if death rate is greater than birth rate.
Population will increase if death rate is less than
birth rate.
Rates of population growth vary across the
world.
Although the world's total population is rising
rapidly, not all countries are experiencing this
growth.
In the UK, for example, population growth is
slowing, while in Germany the population has
started to decline.
MEDCs have low population growth rates, with
low death rates and low birth rates.
Population will decline if death rate is greater
than birth rate.
Population will increase if death rate is less
than birth rate. LEDCs have high population
growth rates.
Both birth rates and death rates in LEDCs
tend to be high.
However, improving healthcare leads to death
rates falling - while birth rates remain high.
The table shows data in selected LEDC and MEDC countries. The
figures are per 1,000 of the population per year.

In Bulgaria, the birth rate is 9/1,000 and death rate is 14/1,000.

As birth rate is less than the death rate, Bulgaria has a declining
population.
The table shows data in selected LEDC and MEDC countries. The
figures are per 1,000 of the population per year.

In South Africa, the birth rate is 25/1,000 and death rate is 15/1,000.
South Africa has an increasing population with a population growth
rate of 1%.
The demographic transition model shows 
population change over time.
It studies how birth rate and death rate affect
the total population of a country.
1.Total population is low but it is balanced due  to high
birth rates and high death rates.
2.Total population rises as death rates fall due  to
improvements in health care and sanitation.  Birth rates
remain high.
3.Total population is still rising rapidly. The gap  between
birth and death rates narrows due to  the availability of
contraception and fewer  children being needed to work -
due to the  mechanisation of farming. The natural increase 
is high.
4.Total population is high, but it is balanced by  a low
birth rate and a low death rate. Birth  control is widely
available and there is a desire  for smaller families.
5.Total population is high but going into  decline due to
an ageing population. There is a  continued desire for
smaller families, with  people opting to have children
later in life.
As a country passes through the demographic  transition
model, the total population rises.
Most LEDCs are at stage 2 or 3 (with a growing
population and a high natural increase).
Most MEDCs are now at stage 4 of the model  and some
such as Germany have entered stage  5.
As populations move through the stages of the  model,
the gap between birth rate and death  rate first widens,
then narrows.
In stage 1 the two rates are balanced.
In stage 2 they diverge, as the death rate falls  relative
to the birth rate.
In stage 3 they converge again, as the birth rate
falls relative to the death rate.
Finally in stage 4 the death and birth rates are  balanced
again but at a much lower level.
The model was developed after studying the  experiences
of countries in Western Europe and  North America.
Conditions might be different for LEDCs in 
different parts of the world.
The original model doesn't take into account the  fact that
some countries now have a declining  population and a 5th
stage.
Most texts will now show this stage as it is  relevant to
an increasing number of MEDCs in  the 21st century.
Most LEDCs are experiencing rapid population  growth.
Most LEDCs are in stage 2 or 3 of the
demographic transition model.
This means that they have falling death rates,  due to
improving health care, while birth rates  remain high.
The recent history of population management  policies
in China illustrates population change  management
problems.
Limited access to family planning
services and education about
contraception.
Contraception and other methods of family
planning may not be culturally or religiously
acceptable.
Children are a valuable source of labour and
income for a family.
They can work on the land from a young age and
as they get older they can earn money in other
jobs.
Children can help to care for younger
children and elderly family members.
High rates of infant mortality (infant deaths)
mean that women need to have many children
in order to ensure that some survive through to
adulthood.
It may be traditional or culturally
important to have a large family.
LEDCs have a high population growth rate
which means that they have many young
dependants.
Governments in LEDCs, international bodies
and charities are working to reduce birth rates
and slow down rates of population growth.
The high birth rate in LEDCs results in a high
proportion of the population under 15.
This youthful population gives a country specific
problems.
The problems include:
• Young children need health care - for
example, immunisations. This is expensive
for a country to provide.
• Young people need to be educated -
providing schools and teachers are
expensive. Resources for lessons are
difficult to access, and costly to buy.
• In the future, more children will reach child
bearing age, putting more pressure on the
health service.
In the late 1970s, the Chinese government introduced a
number of measures to reduce the country's birth rate and
slow the population growth rate.
The most important of the new measures was a one-child
policy, which decreed that couples in China could only
have one child.
In 1950 the rate of population change in China
was 1.9% each year.
If this doesn't sound high, consider that a growth
rate of only 3% will cause the population of a
country to double in less than 24 years!
Previous Chinese governments had encouraged
people to have a lot of children to increase the
country's workforce.
But by the 1970s the government realised that
current rates of population growth would soon
become unsustainable.
Click to add text
In 1950 the rate of population change in China
was 1.9% each year.
If this doesn't sound high, consider that a growth
rate of only 3% will cause the population of a
country to double in less than 24 years!
Previous Chinese governments had encouraged
people to have a lot of children to increase the
country's workforce.
But by the 1970s the government realised that
current rates of population growth would soon
become unsustainable.
The one-child policy, established in
1979, meant that each couple was
allowed just one child.
Benefits included increased access to
education for all, plus childcare and
healthcare offered to families that
followed this rule.
Those who had more than one child didn't receive
these benefits and were fined.
The policy was keenly resisted in rural areas,
where it was traditional to have large families.
In urban areas, the policy has been enforced strictly but
remote rural areas have been harder to control.
Many people claim that some women, who became
pregnant after they had already had a child, were forced to
have an abortion and many women were forcibly
sterilised.
There appears to be evidence to back up these
claims.
The birth rate in China has fallen since 1979, and the rate
of population growth is now 0.7%.
There have been negative impacts too - due to a traditional
preference for boys, large numbers of female babies have
ended up homeless or in orphanages, and in some cases
killed.
In 2000, it was reported that 90% of foetuses aborted
in China were female.
As a result, the gender balance of the Chinese
population has become distorted.
Today it is thought that men outnumber women by
more than 60 million.
01
China's one-child policy has been
somewhat relaxed in recent years. Couples
can now apply to have a second child if
their first child is a girl, or if both parents
are themselves only-children.
02
While China's population is now rising
more slowly, it still has a very large total
population (1.3 billion in 2008) and China
faces new problems, including:
• the falling birth rate - leading to a rise in the relative
number of elderly people
• fewer people of working age to support the growing
number of elderly dependants - in the future China
could have an ageing population
Most MEDCs are experiencing slow rates of population
growth and some are experiencing population decline.
Most MEDCs are in stage 4 of the demographic
transition model - the population is high, but not
growing.
Some countries have a declining population and
could be said to be entering stage 5.
This means that the birth rate in their country has fallen
below the death rate.
Most MEDCs have a very low rate of natural
increase.
The average life expectancy in MEDCs is rising. This is
due to:
• improvements in health care and medicine
• increased leisure and recreation time
• improved knowledge about the importance of a
balanced diet and regular exercise
• improved living standards and quality of life
Birth rates in MEDCs are falling as people choose to have
smaller families later in life.
Contraception is easily available and well
understood.
As people live longer, the structure of a
population changes.
Many MEDCs are now experiencing a significant increase
in the number of elderly people as a proportion of the
population.
As birth rates fall and people have smaller families, the
number of young dependants is falling and the number of
elderly dependants is rising.
In the near future this will mean that there are fewer
economically active people to support the elderly
population.
To try to balance out an ageing population, some countries
adopt a pro-natalist policy - that is, they encourage people
to have more children by offering them benefits, such as
access to childcare and maternity leave.
Many areas of Europe have a low
fertility rate because of the following
reasons:
• education - people are more
aware of the availability of
contraception and consequences
an unplanned pregnancy can have
on their career
• women in careers - women may
choose to follow their career choice
rather than start a family while
young
• later marriages
• state benefits - couples no longer
need children to help care for
them when older
France was a country with concerns that professional
women were choosing not to have children.
The government was worried that the population was not
going to replace itself over time.
The policies that were put in place to encourage
three-children families were:
• a cash incentive of £675 monthly (nearly the minimum
wage) for a mother to stay off work for one year following
the birth of her third child
• the 'carte famille nombreuse' (large family card),
giving large reductions on train fares
• income tax based on the more children the less tax to pay
• three years paid parental leave, which can be used by
mothers or fathers
• government-subsidised daycare for children under the age of
three, and full time school places for over threes paid for by
the government
This has resulted in mothers
considering having children and
remaining in work.
The fertility rate in France is one of
Europe's highest.
What are the issues?
There are decreasing numbers of economically active
people in the population and more elderly dependents.
What can be done about it?
People are encouraged to save for their
retirement in pensions and investments.
The retirement age is increasing.
Facilities such as nursing homes and care workers will be
needed, perhaps in preference to schools and nurseries, as
the population gets older.
Economically active skilled and unskilled
migrants could be encouraged.
The population structure can vary within
a country.
In England a census is conducted every 10
years to find out more about the population
characteristics.
The results help to show how the population
changes over time and in different areas.
Councils also collect data.
There are areas in England which attract people
in retirement age.
Dorset, Devon and Cornwall are three areas
which attract retirement migrants.
There are more elderly there than the
national average.
The population pyramid for the
Torbay area shows this.
Bristol's population is made up of 13.9% black and
minority ethnicity residents.
This is similar to the national average of 12.5%.
However the different ethnic groups are not spread
evenly across the city.
Bristol has a large student population. It also has a
higher than average percentage of qualified residents
(35.1% in Bristol compared to 29.5% nationally).
20.2% of people travel to work on foot or by bike,
whereas the national average is only 12.8%.
The census can therefore tell us a lot about local
population characteristics.
ageing population
When the average age of a
population is rising.
census
An official count of the population. It may
hold details such as ethnicity, occupation and
age.
demographic transition model
A measure of population change over time
which tracks birth and death rates.
fertility rate
The average number of babies born to each
woman.
MEDC
A more economically developed country
(MEDC) has high level of development
based on economic indicators such as
gross domestic product (the country's
income).
natural increase
The natural growth of a population due to
the number of births exceeding deaths.
pro-natalist
Countries are described as pro- natalist if
they adopt policies which encourage
people to have children.