INDUCTIVE

ARGUMENTS

Thursday 14th Sept 2023

R E C A P S TA R T E R A C T I V I T Y

• Complete the Deductive Arguments Worksheet

• Which ones are Sound/Unsound

• Can you explain why?

Sound and Cogent Arguments (futurelearn.com)

INDUCTIVE ARGUMENT

• A successful inductive argument is an argument whose conclusion is supported by its premises.

• If the premises are true, the conclusion is more than likely to be true, the truth of the
premises increases the probability that the conclusion is true.
• However, it is possible that the conclusion is false.
• As such, an inductive argument is never called sound/unsound.
• Instead, inductive arguments are called 'cogent' if the true premises provide support for the
conclusion
COGENT ARGUMENTS

• For non-deductive arguments, we introduce the notion of a cogent argument.

• Definition: A cogent argument is a strong non-deductive argument that has true premises.
• And again, we say that cogent arguments are good. A cogent argument is by definition non-
deductive, which means that the premises are intended to establish probable (but not conclusive)
support for the conclusion.
• Furthermore, a cogent argument is strong, so the premises, if they were true, would succeed in
providing probable support for the conclusion. And finally, the premises are actually true. So, the
conclusion indeed receives probable support.
COGENT EXAMPLE

• I had coffee this morning. Therefore, it’s quite likely that I drank something this morning.
• This is a strong argument with true premises, so it is cogent and therefore, good. But the conclusion
is not guaranteed. It may be that I had coffee this morning by eating it, or by some other means. But
of course, this is very unlikely, so the argument is strong, though it’s still possible that the
conclusion is false. Still, this is cogent and therefore, a good argument.
I N D U C T I O N T H R O U G H E N U M E R AT I O N

Here is an example of this type of Inductive Argument

• P1. This apple is red

• P2. This other apple is red An enumeration is a complete, ordered
listing of all the items in a collection. The
• P3. That third apple is red term is commonly used in mathematics and
• … computer science to refer to a listing of all
of the elements of a set.
• P500. That apple is red as well
• All apples are red

As you can see, an inductive argument can be a good argument, but the conclusion can still be false.
Some apples are also green.
C H A L L E N G E TA S K

• Explain and Illustrate the difference between inductive and deductive

arguments (10 lines)
HYPOTHETICAL REASONING

• A hypothesis is a proposal that needs to be confirmed or rejected by reasoning or experience

• In hypothetical reasoning we try to work out the best hypothesis that would explain or account for
some experience or fact
• e.g. in Medical diagnosis this could apply – what would explain this set of symptoms ...
• This is not as simple as comparing this case with that case which have the same symptoms.
• Case may involve complications, such as more than one case being involved.

• 'If such and such were true, e.g. patient has disease x, would that explain the evidence that we
have?'
W H AT M A K E S F O R A G O O D H Y P O T H E S I S ?

• Ockham's Razor states, "Don't put forward a hypothesis that says many things, when a simpler
explanation will do"
• e.g. Superstitions caused people to believe that when God was angry there was an earthquake
• O.R. states that these events rely upon the existence of God. Why not simply say that when the
earth plates move there is an earthquake
 A GOOD HYPOTHESIS IS
SAPSC

• Simple – Ockham's Razor

• Accurate – fits the evidence we are trying to explain
• Plausible – matches with what else we know
• Scope – explains a wide range of evidence
• Coherent – explains connections between different parts of the
evidence
S U M M A RY

• What makes a good hypothesis ( 5 lines )