SCENARIO PLANNING MAP

Extrinsic - what the world

does
01 PREDICTIVE What could happen ? All possible futures Do nothing - business as usual

Intrinsic - what we do

Drive change - strategic action

Extrinsic - what the world
does
02 EXPLANATORY What is likely to happen ? The likely future Do nothing - business as usual

Intrinsic - what we do

Drive change - strategic action

Extrinsic - what the world
does
03 ASPIRATIONAL What do we want to happen ? The desired future Do nothing - business as usual

Intrinsic - what we do

Drive change - strategic action

 SCENARIO PLANNING IN ACTION

DEFINE EXPLORE CREATE COMMUNICATE ACT EMBBED

PRIORITIZE CREATE ESTABLISH

PROVOKE ESTABLISH TEST
objective scenario documents & ongoing strategic
new thinking scenario framework current strategies
outputs conversation

ENABLE BRAINSTORM
DECIDE BRAINSTORM BUILD GENERATE
people to experience systems to monitor
focal issues spectrum of issues scenario logics strategic options
the scenario weak signals

GENERATE DEFINE BUILD

SET IDENTIFY VITAL GENERATIVE
discussion of a core strategy robust responsiveness to
time horizon driving force compelling narratives
implications against scenarios change

DEFINE RESEARCH ENSURE ESTABLISH

scope key themes internal consistency contingent strategies

NAME DISTINGUISH
core & extent scenario certainties and
teams uncertainties

TEST
preliminary scenario
frameworks
SCENARIO PLANNING MATRIX

Growth Plan Deliberative or

“Offensive” Strategy

MATRIX

Potential Doomsday
Defensive Plan Scenario
 THE SCENARIO FUNNEL

Trends emerging issues wild

cards

Scenario A

Scenario B

Historical Data

Scenario C

Scenario D

T O D AY FUTURE
 SCENARIO PLANNING WORKSHEET

SCENARIO A SCENARIO B SCENARIO C SCENARIO D

What happens after

IMPACT OF the scenario
SCENARIO occurs?

What is unknown
UNCERTAINTI
about the scenario?
ES

What question you

QUESTIONS
have about scenario?

What comments you

COMMENTS
have about scenario?

What response you

RESPONSE take on occurring of
scenario?

What alternative way

ALTERNATIVE
you take if it occurs?
PLANS