E1405 2021.04.01 Urban Limits Ainaro

FBS-MOP-19019B
PREPARATION OF MASTER PLAN

FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS
WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION
AINARO-MALIANA-SUAI
CONTRACT MPW-CS-200029
PROPOSED URBAN LIMITS AND

POPULATION ESTIMATIONS FOR AINARO
November 14, 2023

TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION
2. TERRITORY CONTEXT
3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA
4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS
5. AINARO
6. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS
MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER SUPPLY AND
SANITATION (AINARO-MALIANA-SUAI) 2
1. INTRODUCTION
5. AINARO
1. INTRODUCTION
This presentation concerns the assignment for “Preparation of Master Plans for
Municipal Capitals Water Supply and Sanitation, Ainaro, Maliana and Suai”.
This project will be closed in June 2021, only 9 months, started last October.
This is a preliminary analysis of the proposed geographical limits for the municipal
capitals, as well as the corresponding population evolution until the year 2040.
The presented results are estimations, not projections, since one does not have the
necessary baseline data to elaborate projections at suco and aldeia levels.
MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

SUPPLY AND SANITATION (AINARO-MALIANA-SUAI) 4
1. INTRODUCTION
5. AINARO
• We have characteristic ‘rural-urban’ settlements without clear urban boundaries.

• The built occupation combines:
a) Several low density nucleus Both structured and linked by
‘streets’, roads, and paths.
b) House sprawl areas

On the planning side, the concept of urban areas currently utilized in Timor-Leste is the
one use by Population Statistics, including (Census Report, 2010):
• “All district capitals were considered as urban areas. The boundaries of the district
capitals are the ones provided in the built up areas.
• “Areas which had following characteristics qualified as urban, which means that they:
a) have a population of about 2,000 people or more;
b) have less than 50 per cent of its population employed in agricultural/fishing
activities and the remaining people employed in the modern sector;
c) have electricity and piped water,
d) have access to schools, medical care and recreational facilities.”

HOWEVER:
• It is known that 2015 Census register as urban population the following:

oAinaro: 3.366 inhabitants;
oMaliana: 12.787 inhabitants;
oSuai: 9.130 inhabitants.
• The enumeration areas are known, however, they do not consider that the water supply
areas should coincide with the boundaries of the capital cities, since urban expansion
takes place, and water needs are not limited to administrative limits.

1. INTRODUCTION
5. AINARO
3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION
CRITERIA
The criteria adopted for the definition of urban boundaries were based on the
criteria of continuity and contiguity of housing and urban equipment.
The proposed urban areas consider currently SMASA water supplied areas
Given the above context:
i) What are the criteria for establishing
water supply areas’ boundaries?
ii) Who defines those criteria?

POLITICAL AND URBAN
iii) How far must one go to include, within
PLANNING DECISIONS
the boundaries to be established, the
identified water needs that exist on the
territory?
1. INTRODUCTION
5. AINARO
4. POPULATION EVOLUTION
ESTIMATIONS
Population data:
Baseline data for estimations.

• Census 2004
• Census 2010
• Census 2015
• Suco’s population registered in 2020, at village (aldeia)
level, shared by Suco leaders
This is the baseline data for population estimations

ESTIMATIONS
AVAILABLE POPULATION PROJECTIONS

GROWTH RATES (%)
SOURCE
2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040
UNDESA PROJECTIONS FOR TIMOR-LESTE

1.94 1.85 1.69 1.46 1.30
(2100) - AVERAGE
DGE PROJECTIONS FOR TIMOR-LESTE
1.68 1.59 1.62 1.58 1.50
(2050) - HIGH
1.60 1.37 1.30 1.25 1.18
(2050) -MEDDIUM
1.51 1.14 0.98 0.89 0.81
(2050) -LOW
DGE PROJECTIONS FOR AINARO
0.47 0.32 0.64 - -
MUNICIPALITY (2030)
DGE PROJECTIONS FOR BOBONARO

0.25 -0.04 0.15 - -
MUNICIPALITY (2030)
DGE PROJECTIONS FOR COVALIMA

1.02 0.96 0.81 - -
MUNICIPALITY (2030)

ESTIMATIONS
Four scenarios were considered to estimate population’s volume evolution until 2040:
Scenario 1:
Population evolution was calculated applying the annual growth rates considered in
DGE projections for Ainaro municipality level. As DGE projections are available
only until 2030, it was assumed that the last annual growth rate considered in DGE
projections (2029-2030) would keep constant until 2040.
Scenario 1I:
As an alternative scenario, it was considered that the growth rates from 2030 to
2040 would go on growing, following the same tendency registered for the period
2028-2029-2030 of DGE’s projections. This scenario results are different from
scenario 1 ones only after 2030.

ESTIMATIONS
Scenario III:
Since growth rates at municipality level can be different and can be expected to
be lower than the growth rates registered in the urban areas of municipality
capitals, a third scenario was considered applying a higher growth rate, based on
the average annual growth rate registered for the study area for the whole period
2004 to 2020. It was considered the average annual growth rate registered for
study area sucos aggregate, between 2004 and 2020, which was 2,32%. Then it
was assumed that, for the period 2020-2040, the population would grow at a
constant annual rate that is a half (1,16%) of the above annual growth rate
registered for the period 2004-2020.
This is an optimistic scenario.
ESTIMATIONS
Scenario IV:
This is a pessimistic scenario.

Considering that the population had a negative variation between 2010 and 2020
(-1,6%), it was assumed that, for the period 2020-2040, the population would go
on decreasing at the same negative constant annual rate as the one for the period
2010-2020 (-0,16%).

1. INTRODUCTION
5. AINARO
5. AINARO
Scenario 1:
Population evolution estimation – Scenario I

Water
Supply Study
Area 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
6 456 6 472 6 490 6 511 6 534 6 561 6 592 6 629 6 672

2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
7 Aldeias
6 720 6 772 6 824 6 877 6 930 6 984 7 038 7 092 7 147
2038 2039 2040
7 202 7 258 7 314

5. AINARO
Scenario 1I:
Population evolution estimation – Scenario II

Water
Supply Study
Area 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
6 456 6 472 6 490 6 511 6 534 6 561 6 592 6 629 6 672

2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
7 Aldeias 6 720 6 772 6 828 6 889 6 955 7 026 7 103 7 187 7 278
2038 2039 2040
7 377 7 485 7 602

5. AINARO
Scenario III:
Population evolution estimation – Scenario III

Water
Supply Study
Area 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
6 456 6 531 6 607 6 684 6 761 6 840 6 919 7 000 7 081

2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
7 Aldeias 7 163 7 247 7 331 7 416 7 502 7 589 7 677 7 767 7 857
2038 2039 2040
7 948 8 041 8 134

5. AINARO
Scenario IV:
Population evolution estimation – Scenario IV

Water
Supply Study
Area 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
6 456 6 445 6 435 6 424 6 414 6 403 6 393 6 382 6 372

2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
7 Aldeias 6 361 6 351 6 341 6 330 6 320 6 310 6 299 6 289 6 279
2038 2039 2040
6 268 6 258 6 248

5. AINARO
Population estimation
8134
8041
7948
7857
7767
7677
7589 7602
7502 7485
7416 7377
7331 7314
7247 7278 7258
7163 7187 7147 7202
7081 7103 7092
7000 7026 7038
6984
6919 6955
6930
6889
6877
6840 6828
6824
6761 6772
6684 6672 6720
6607 6592 6629
6531 6490 6511 6534 6561
6456 6472
6445 6435 6424 6414 6403
6393 6382 6372 6361 6351
6341 6330 6320 6310 6299
6289 6279 6268 6258 6248
0 20 021 022 023 024 025 026 027 028 029 030 031 032 033 034 035 036 037 038 039 040
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV

5. AINARO
ADMINISTRATIVE POSTS AND STUDY AREA: AINARO SUCO AND

SUCOS SORO SUCO

5. AINARO
AINARO SUCO: ALDEIAS INCLUDED IN STUDY AREA
 Ainaro
 Builico
 Hato Mera
 Nugufú
 Sebagulau
(SOURCE: DGE, 2019)

5. AINARO
SORO SUCO: ALDEIAS INCLUDED IN STUDY AREA
 Guer-Udo
 Leolala
(SOURCE: DGE, 2019)

5. AINARO
EXISTING AND PROPOSED AINARO WATER SUPPLY ZONES
Proposed area ≈ 6,7 km2
Pop. Density
Scenario (Inhab./km2)
2040
I 1 091
II 1 135
III 1 214
IV 933

5. AINARO
FUTURE SUPLLY ZONE AND SERVED ALDEIAS

Served Aldeias
Ainaro Suco:
• Ainaro
• Builico
• Hato Mera
• Nugufú
• Sebagulau
Soro Suco:
• Guer-Udo
• Leolala

1. INTRODUCTION
5. AINARO
OBRIGADU BARAK

E1405 2021.04.01 Urban Limits Ainaro

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

E1405 2021.04.01 Urban Limits Ainaro

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

FBS-MOP-19019B

PREPARATION OF MASTER PLAN

PROPOSED URBAN LIMITS AND

November 14, 2023

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

6. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

6. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

6. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

• We have characteristic ‘rural-urban’ settlements without clear urban boundaries.

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

• It is known that 2015 Census register as urban population the following:

oMaliana: 12.787 inhabitants;

oSuai: 9.130 inhabitants.

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

6. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

ii) Who defines those criteria?

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

6. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

Baseline data for estimations.

This is the baseline data for population estimations

AVAILABLE POPULATION PROJECTIONS

UNDESA PROJECTIONS FOR TIMOR-LESTE

DGE PROJECTIONS FOR BOBONARO

DGE PROJECTIONS FOR COVALIMA

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

This is a pessimistic scenario.

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

6. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

Population evolution estimation – Scenario I

6 456 6 472 6 490 6 511 6 534 6 561 6 592 6 629 6 672

7 202 7 258 7 314

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

Population evolution estimation – Scenario II

6 456 6 472 6 490 6 511 6 534 6 561 6 592 6 629 6 672

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

Population evolution estimation – Scenario III

6 456 6 531 6 607 6 684 6 761 6 840 6 919 7 000 7 081

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

Population evolution estimation – Scenario IV

6 456 6 445 6 435 6 424 6 414 6 403 6 393 6 382 6 372

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

ADMINISTRATIVE POSTS AND STUDY AREA: AINARO SUCO AND

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

AINARO SUCO: ALDEIAS INCLUDED IN STUDY AREA

(SOURCE: DGE, 2019)

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

SORO SUCO: ALDEIAS INCLUDED IN STUDY AREA

(SOURCE: DGE, 2019)