Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Efficient use of financial resources
Cash flow management
Optimization of expenditures
Management of corporate financial risk
Maximization of profitability of the firm
Optimal use of capital structure
Evaluation of investment project profitability
Planning optimal dividend policy
Effective investment management of financial instruments
Chapter 1: VALUE-FOCUSED MANAGEMENT
Accounting Profit
Basic criterion of the firm efficiency is the main financing resource –
accounting profit (net income) (NI) which can be determined using the
profit and loss account data:
NI R TC
where:
R = total revenues
TC = total expenses (accounting costs)
NOPAT where:
ROIC NOPAT = net operating profit after tax
IC
where:
NOPAT EBIT (1 t ) EBIT = operating profit (profit before
interest and tax);
t = corporate income tax rate
Economic Profit vs. Accounting Profit
Added Value Creation
EP IC ( ROIC rWACC )
EP IC ( ROIC rWACC )
If this relationship holds, the financial result of the business activity is higher
than the financing costs.
As a result, the firm is able to meet the expectations of the company owners
(shareholders) and creditors and creates added value for all company
investors.
The higher the economic profit, the more attractive the business for financing.
Economic Profit vs. Accounting Profit
Task 1.1.:
Assume that a firm was established one year ago.
Financials (beginning of year):
Loan obligations (firm’s liabilities) €4,000,000
Owners’ invested capital 4,000,000
Weighted average cost of capital 8%
Cost of equity 10%
Solution:
NOPAT €1,000,000
ROIC 0.125 12.5%
IC €8,000,000
Economic Profit vs. Accounting Profit
Task 1.1.:
Assume that a firm was established one year ago.
Financials (beginning of year):
Loan obligations (firm’s liabilities) €4,000,000
Owners’ invested capital 4,000,000
Weighted average cost of capital 8%
Cost of equity 10%
Solution:
Another key factor of the efficiency of the value-focused management is the free
cash flow (FCF):
where:
NOPAT = net operating profit after tax; NOPAT EBIT (1 t )
t = corporate income tax rate
ΔIC = net investments in operating capital IC ICt ICt 1
Free cash flow – financial resource which is available for all company investors
(shareholders and creditors).
Free cash flow represents the cash that is actually available for distribution to
investors. Therefore, the way for managers to make their firms more valuable is to
increase their free cash flow.
Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow Calculation
ΔIC = change in net investments in operating capital over the accounting period.
Invested capital (IC) as of the end of the accounting period is calculated as:
IC (C A / R INV ) ( A / P AX ) OLTA
where:
C = cash,
A/R = accounts receivable,
INV = inventories,
A/P = accounts payable,
AX = accruals (a.k.a. accrued expenses),
OLTA = long-term operating assets (i.e. fixed assets necessary to sustain the
business).
Free Cash Flow
where:
EBIT = earnings before interest and tax;
t = corporate income tax;
EBIT (1 – t) = NOPAT = net operating profit after tax;
rWACC = weighted average cost of capital;
IC = invested capital (net operating capital)
Practice Examples
Example 1.2.:
Suppose the firm’s weighted average cost of capital – 11.0%.
Balance sheet data ($ ‘000, Dec 31):
: Assets 2020 2019
Current Assets
Cash and cash equivalents 10 80
Accounts receivable 375 315
Inventories 615 415
Total Current Assets 1,000 810
Fixed Assets
Net plant and equipment 1,000 870
Total Assets 2,000 1,680
Note: Cash fixed capital expenditures during 2020 = net fixed asset investments + depreciation expense = 130 + 100 = 230
Practice Examples
Interest expense 88 60
Earnings before taxes (EBT) 195.8 203
Tax (40%) 78.3 81.2
Net income (NI) 117.5 121.8
Alternatively:
Sources of financing 2020 2019
Loans from credit institutions:
Short-term 110 60
Note:
Long-term 750 580 Accounts payable ($60)
and accruals ($140) are
Shareholders’ capital 940 880 excluded.
Invested capital (IC) 1,800 1,520
EVA in both 2019 and 2020 was negative and continued to decline. Operating income
(NOPAT) rose, but EVA still declined, primarily because the amount of capital rose
more sharply than NOPAT — by about 18% versus 8% — and the cost of this
increased capital pulled EVA down even more.
Net income fell from 2019 to 2020, but not nearly so dramatically as the decline in EVA.
Net income does not reflect the amount of equity capital employed, but EVA does.
Because of this omission, net income is not as useful as EVA for setting corporate goals
and measuring managerial performance.
Chapter 2: TIME VALUE OF MONEY
Time value of money is the idea that money available at the present time is
worth more than the same amount in the future due to its potential earning
capacity. This core principle of finance holds that, provided money can earn
interest, any amount of money is worth more the sooner it is received.
Compounding and Future Value
t=0 1
r = 10%
Present value is the current worth of sum of money or stream of cash flows
that will be received in the future, given the interest rate. For example, given
an interest rate of 10%, the PV of $110 that will be received in one year is
$100.
t=0 1
r = 10%
PV = €100 €110
Time Value of Money and Interest Rates
• The discount rate that must be applied to a future cash flow in order to
determine its present value.
Interest rates are determined by the demand and supply of funds. They are
composed of the real risk‐free rate plus compensation for bearing different
types of risks:
• An inflation premium (IP) is added to the real risk‐free rate to reflect the
expected loss in purchasing power over the term of a loan. The real risk‐
free rate plus the inflation premium equals the nominal risk‐free rate.
• The default risk premium (DRP) compensates investors for the risk that
the borrower might fail to make promised payments in full in a timely
manner.
Cost of Money: Interest Rates as Compensation for Risks
• The liquidity premium (LP) compensates investors for any difficulty that
they might face in converting their holdings readily into cash at their fair
value. Securities that trade infrequently or with low volumes require a higher
liquidity premium than those that trade frequently with high volumes.
For example, the required rate on a debt security, rd can be shown as:
where:
FVn PV (1 r ) n n = compounding period,
r = interest rate per compounding period
Example:
If you deposited €100 in a savings account, and interest rates were 6%, what would be
the future value of your money in one year, and in two years?
Solution:
In one year the value of €100 will be:
€100 × (1+ 0.06)1 = €106
In two years the value of €100 will be:
€100 × (1+ 0.06)2 = €112.36.
• On your investment of €100 you earn 0.06 x 100 = €6 in simple interest each year.
In the second year, the €6 simple interest earned in Year 1 also earns interest in
addition to the principal. This €6 x 0.06 = €0.36 of additional interest earned is
compound interest. Over the two years, total interest earned equals €6 + €6 +
€0.36 = €12.36
Calculating FV and PV
Timeline
Timelines is convenient way how a manager can deal with cash flows.
A general timeline for the future value concept looks like this:
r = 10%
0 1 2 3 n-1 n
PV FVn = PV (1 + r)n
For a given interest rate, the future value increases as the number of periods
increases.
For a given number of periods, the future value increases as the interest rate
increases.
Practice Problems
Problem 1-1:
Calculate the future value of €750 at the end of 12 years if the annual interest
rate is 7%.
Solution:
FV = €1,689.14
Problem 1-2:
Calculate the value after 20 years of an investment of €500, which will be made
after 7 years. The expected annual rate of return is 8%.
Solution:
FV = €1,359.81
Calculating FV and PV
Present Value of a Single Cash Flow
Calculating the present value involves determining the value in today’s terms of
a cash flow or cash flow stream that will be received in the future.
FVn
PV
(1 r ) n
Example:
• If you were offered a payment of €106 a year from today, and interest rates
were 6%, calculating the PV of this cash flow would involve determining the
amount, which invested today at 6%, would yield €106 in a year.
n=0 r = 6% 1 106
PV 100
(1 0.06) 1
PV = ? €106
Practice Problems
Problem 1-3:
Given a discount rate of 10%, what is the PV of a €1,500 cash flow that will be
received in 6 years?
Solution:
PV = €846.71
Problem 1-4:
What is the present value of a cash flow of €1,200 that will be received in 15
years if the discount rate is 8%?
Solution:
PV = €378.29
Practice Problems
Problem 1-5:
An insurance company has issued a Guaranteed Investment Contract (GIC)
that promises to pay $100,000 in six years with an 8% return rate. What
amount of money must the insurer invest today at 8% for six years to make
the promised payment?
Solution:
FV6 = $100,000
r = 8% = 0.08
n=6
PV = FVn(1 + r)-n
= $100,000(1 + 0.08)-6
= $63,016.96
We can say that $63,016.96 today, with an interest rate of 8%, is equivalent to
$100,000 to be received in six years. Discounting the $100,000 makes a
future $100,000 equivalent to $63,016.96 when allowance is made for the
time value of money.
Calculating FV and PV
n (1 rk )
FVn PV (1 rk ) k 1
k 1
Example:
The beginning balance of the investment account is €200,000. The expected
annual returns on the investment account over year 1, 2 and 3, are 8.5%,
7.2% and 5.4% respectively. What will be the ending balance of the
investment account at the end of year 3?
Solution:
FV3 = 200,000 (1 + 0.085) (1 + 0.072) (1 + 0.054) = €245,185.7
Calculation of the Period n and Interest Rate r
Calculation of Period n
The formula for the period n is:
FVn
ln
n PV
ln(1 r )
Example:
How long will it take to double a capital attracting the annual rate of return of
10%?
Solution:
FVn / PV = 2
r = 10% = 0.1
ln 2 0.6930
n 7.27( years)
ln(1 0.1) 0.0953
Calculation of the Period n and Interest Rate r
Example:
The initial amount of investment is €75,000. How much time will it take the
invested capital to reach €200,000 if the annual rate of return is expected to
be 8%?
Solution:
200
ln
75 0.982
n 12.75( years)
ln(1 0.08) 0.077
Calculation of the Period n and Interest Rate r
The interest rate r (or, alternatively, the growth rate g) is calculated as follows:
FVn
r n 1
PV
Example:
What should be the annual rate of return for the capital to grow from $100,000
to $150,000 over a 5-year period?
Solution:
150,000
r5 1 0.0845 8.45%
100,000
FV and PV of a Series of Cash Flows
Ordinary Annuities
• Calculating future values and present values for annuities is different from
calculating future values and present values for single sums because we
have to find the value of a stream of periodic payments, each of which is
denoted by the variable, PMT (i.e. annuity payment).
Future Value of Ordinary Annuity
The general formula for the future value of ordinary annuity (FVA) is:
FVAn PMT (1 r ) n 1 (1 r ) n 2 (1 r ) n 3 ... (1 r )1 (1 r ) 0
which simplifies to:
(1 r ) n 1
FVAn PMT
r
where:
PMT = annuity amount
n = number of time periods
r = interest rate per period
the term in brackets is the future value annuity factor
Future Value of Ordinary Annuity
Example:
The example demonstrates the calculation of the future value of ordinary
annuity. There are three equal cash flows of €100 each, the interest rate is
10%. The cash flows can be shown on the timeline:
n=0 r = 10%
1 2 3
FV of Ordinary Annuity
PMT = 100 100 100
100(1+0.1)
110
100(1+0.1)2
121
FVA3 = €331
(1 0.1) 3 1
FVA3 100 100(3.31) €331
0 .1
Future Value of Ordinary Annuity
Example:
Consider an ordinary annuity paying 5% annually. Suppose we have five separate
deposits of $1,000 occurring at equally spaced intervals of one year, with the first
payment occurring at t = 1. Find the future value of this ordinary annuity after the
last deposit at t = 5.
Alternatively,
(1 0.05) 5 1
FVA5 $1,000 $5,525.63
0.05
Practice Problems
Problem 1-6:
You plan to invest €20,000 per year in a stock index fund for the next 30 years.
Historically, this fund has earned 9% per year on average.
Assuming that you actually earn 9% a year, how much money will you have
available for retirement after making the last payment?
Practice Problems
Solution:
PMT = €20,000
r = 9% = 0.09
n = 30
(1 0.09) 30 1
FVA30 €20,000 €20,000(136.307539) €2,726,150.77
0.09
Assuming the fund continues to earn an average of 9% per year, you will have
€2,726,150.77 available at retirement.
Present Value of Ordinary Annuity
Present Value of an Ordinary Annuity
1
1
(1 r ) n
PVAn PMT
r
Present Value of Ordinary Annuity
Example:
The example demonstrates the calculation of the present value of ordinary
annuity. There are three equal cash flows of €100 each, the discount rate is
10%. The cash flows are shown on the timeline:
n=0 1 2 3
r = 10%
PV of Ordinary Annuity
PMT = 100 100 100
100(1+0.1)-1
90.91 100(1+0.1)-2
82.64 100(1+0.1)-3
75.13
PVA3 = €248.68
1
1
(1 0.1) 3
PVA3 100 100(2.4868) €248.68
0.1
Present Value of Ordinary Annuity
Example:
Suppose you are considering purchasing a financial asset that promises to pay
€1,000 per year for five years, with the first payment one year from now.
The required rate of return is 12% per year.
How much should you pay for this asset?
Solution:
PMT =1,000
r = 12% = 0.12
n=5
1
1
(1.12) 5
PVA5 €1,000 €1,000(3.604776) €3,604.78
0.12
Present Value of Ordinary Annuity
Example:
How much can the firm borrow if the interest rate is 18%, the firm can afford to
pay €100,000 at the end of each year, and it wants to clear the loan in 10
years?
Solution:
PMT =100,000
r = 18% = 0.18
n = 10
1
1
(1.18)10
PVA5 €100,000 €449,408.63
0.18
Annuity Due
Annuities Due
An annuity due is an annuity where the periodic cash flows occur at the
beginning of every period.
To calculate the present and future values of annuities due the following
formulas are used:
1
D
1 (1 r ) n
PVAn PMT (1 r )
r
D (1 r ) n 1
FVAn PMT (1 r )
r
Present Value of Annuity Due
Example:
The example demonstrates the calculation of the present value of annuity due.
There are three equal cash flows of €100 each, the discount rate is 10%.
The cash flows can be shown on the timeline:
r = 10%
0 1 2 3
PV of Annuity Due
PMT = 100 100 100
100(1+0.1)
-1
90.91
100(1+0.1)-2
82.64
PVA3D = €273.55
Note that the PVA is the sum of the present values of the cash flows. The
present value of annuity due can be also found with the formula:
1
1
(1 0.1) 3
D
PVA3 100 (1 0.1) €273.55
0.1
Future Value of Annuity Due
Example:
The example demonstrates the calculation of the future value of annuity due.
There are three equal cash flows of €100 each, the interest rate is 10%.
The cash flows can be shown on the timeline:
0 r = 10%
1 2 3
FV of Annuity Due
PMT = 100 100 100
110
121
133.1
FVA3D = €364.1
D (1 0.1) 3 1
FVA3 100 (1 0.1) €364.1
0. 1
What is the difference between an ordinary annuity and an annuity due?
Ordinary Annuity
0 1 2 3
r%
Annuity Due
0 1 2 3
r%
Example:
What is the value at the end of Year 4 of an annuity that pays $500 at the
beginning of each of the next 4 years, starting today?
Assume that the cash flows can be invested at an annual rate of 8%.
Solution:
We need to find the FV of annuity due.
PMT = 500, n = 4, r = 0.08
0 r = 8%
1 2 3 4
D (1 0.08) 4 1
FVA4 500 (1 0.08) 500(4.506112 )(1.08) €2,433.30
0.08
Perpetuity
1
PVP PMT t
t 1 (1 r )
As long as interest rates are positive, the sum of PV factors converges and
PMT
PVP
r
Perpetuity
Example:
The British government once issued a type of security called a consol bond,
which promised to pay a level cash flow indefinitely.
If a consol bond paid £100 per year in perpetuity, what would it be worth today
if the required rate of return were 5%?
Solution:
PMT = £100
r = 5% = 0.05
100
PVP 2,000
0.05
The bond would be worth £2,000.
Perpetuity
Example:
ABC Corporation pays a $10 per share annual dividend on its preferred stock.
Given a 5% rate of return and assuming that this dividend policy will
continue forever, what is the value of ABC stock?
Solution:
The value of ABC’s preferred stock can be seen as the present value of a
perpetuity:
10
PVP $200
0.05
Perpetuity
Example:
Assume that the net profit per one hectare of land will amount to €50 per year
over an indefinite period of time. Determine the value of one hectare of land
if the opportunity cost of capital is 11%.
Solution:
The profit per one hectare of land can be considred a perpetuity because the
investment horizon is indefinite and the payments are equal. Thus, the
fundamental market value of the land is:
50
PVP €454.55
0.11
Unequal Cash Flows
In an annuity, all cash flows are identical. Faced with a series of unequal cash
flows, we must first calculate the present value of each individual cash flow
separately and then sum the respective present values.
The formula for the present value of unequal cash flows (CF) is:
t
n
1
PV CFt
t 1 1 r
Unequal Cash Flows
Example:
The figure illustrates the calculation of the PV of a series of unequal cash flows
at r = 10%:
r = 10%
n=0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
CF =
100 150 200 230 200 0 1,000
90.91 100(1+0.1)
-1
150(1+0.1)-2
123.97
200(1+0.1)-3
150.26
230(1+0.1)-4
157.09
200(1+0.1)-5
124.18
0(1+0.1)-6
0
1,000(1+0.1)-7
513.16
PV = €1,159.57
Unequal Cash Flows
Future Value of Unequal Cash Flows
We can find the future value of a series of unequal cash flows by compounding
the cash flows one at a time (see the figure below). The formula is:
n
FVn CFt (1 r ) n t
t 1
r = 10%
n=0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
242.00
230(1+0.1)
3
306.13
200(1+0.1)4
292.82
150(1+0.1)5
241.58
100(1+0.1)6
177.16
FV7 = €2,259.68
Unequal Cash Flows
Example:
Max wants to pay off his student loan in three annual installments: €2,000,
€4,000 and €6,000, respectively, in the next three years.
How much should he deposit into his bank account today if he wants to use the
account balance to pay off the loan? Assume that the bank pays 8%
interest, compounded annually.
Solution:
n=0 1 r = 8% 2 3
Frequency of Compounding
Many financial contracts call for more frequent payments; for example,
mortgage and auto loans call for monthly payments and most bonds pay
interest semiannually. Similarly, most banks compute interest daily.
When compounding occurs more frequently than once a year, this fact must be
recognized.
In general, with more than one compounding period in a year, we can express
the formulas for present value and future value as:
nm nm
rs rs
PV FVn 1 FVn PV 1
where: m m
m = number of compounding periods per year
rs = nominal (a.k.a. stated or quoted) annual interest rate
n = number of years
rs / m = periodic interest rate
nm = total number of compounding periods
Frequency of Compounding
Rather than quote the periodic monthly interest rate, financial institutions often
quote an annual interest rate, referred to as the stated annual interest
rate.
When dealing with TVM problems, the stated annual interest rate must be
adjusted for the number of compounding periods (i.e. number of times
interest on interest is earned), which results in a periodic interest rate
(rs / m).
Frequency of Compounding
Example:
Compute the ending balance after 5 years of £5,000 invested at 13% assuming
quarterly compounding.
Solution:
m=4
n=5
PV = 5,000
rs = 13% = 0.13
rs / m = 0.13 / 4 = 0.0325 (periodic interest rate)
number of compounding periods (nm) = 5(4) = 20
Example:
A bank offers the company to pay 6% compounded monthly. The company
decides to invest €1m for one year.
What is the future value of the investment if interest payments are reinvested at
6%?
Solution:
PV = €1,000,000
rs = 6% = 0.06
m = 12
periodic interest rate (rs / m) = 0.06 / 12 = 0.0050
n=1 Note:
nm = 12(1) = 12 interest periods If the company had been paid 6% with
112
annual compounding, the future amount
0.06 would be only €1,000,000(1.06) =
FV1 €1,000,0001 €1,061,677.81 €1,060,000 instead of €1,061,677.81
12
with monthly compounding.
Frequency of Compounding
Example:
$1,000 is deposited into a savings account that pays 3% interest with monthly
compounding.
What is the accumulated amount after two and a half years? What is the amount
of interest earned over this period?
Solution:
The investment interval is 30 months (or 30 compounding periods). Thus, the
accumulated amount is
30
0.03
FV2.5 $1,0001 $1,077.78
12
The table also shows that a $1 investment earning 8.16% compounded annually
grows to the same future value at the end of one year as a $1 investment
earning 8% compounded semiannually. This result leads to the distinction
between the stated annual interest rate and the effective annual rate (EAR).
For an 8% stated annual interest rate with semiannual compounding, the EAR is
8.16%.
Effective Annual Rate
If we are comparing the costs of loans that require payments more than once a
year, or the rates of return on investments that pay interest more frequently,
then the comparisons should be based on effective (or equivalent) annual
rates of return using this formula:
The periodic interest rate equals the stated interest rate divided by the number
of compounding periods in one year (i.e., rs / m).
Effective Annual Rate
Example:
Consider two investment schemes A and B. Scheme A offers 12% interest with
annual compounding. Scheme B offers 11.5% interest with monthly
compounding.
Calculate the effective equivalent rates of interest of the two investments. Which
scheme should be chosen?
Solution:
The effective rate of interest of Scheme A is equal to its nominal rate of interest, i.e.,
12%, because m = 1.
The effective rate of 12interest of Scheme B is
0.115 EARB EAR A
EARB 1 1 12.13%
12
Although Scheme A has a higher nominal rate of interest, Scheme B offers a higher
effective rate of interest. Hence, while an investment of €100 in Scheme A will
generate an interst of €12 after one year, a similar investment in Scheme B will
generate an interst of €12.13 over the same period. Thus, Scheme B is
preferred.
Loan Amortization Schedule
Amortized loans
An amortized loan is one that is paid off in equal payments over a specified
period.
An amortization schedule shows how much of each payment constitutes
interest, how much is used to reduce the principal, and the unpaid balance
at each point in time. For example:
Loan Amortization Schedule, 6% Interest Rate
Beginning Repayment Remaining
Year amount Payment Interest of principal
a b
balance
(1) (2) (3) (2) – (3) = (4) (1) – (4) = (5)
1 €1,000.00 €374.11 €60.00 €314.11 €685.89
2 685.89 374.11 41.15 332.96 352.93
3 352.93 374.11 21.18 352.93 0.00
€1.122.33 €122.33 €1.000.00
a
Interest is calculated by multiplying the loan balance at the beginning of the year by the interest rate. Therefore,
interest in Year 1 is €1,000(0.06) = €60; in Year 2 it is €685.89(0.06) = €41.15; and in Year 3 it is €352.93(0.06) =
€21.18.
b
Repayment of principal is equal to the payment of €374.11 minus the interest charge for each year.
Loan Amortization
Problem 1- 9:
A firm is considering raising capital by borrowing from a local bank. The
amount of the loan is €100,000. The bank will lend the money at a rate of
10% and requires that the loan be paid off in five equal end-of-year
payments.
1. Calculate the amount of the annual payment that the firm must make in
order to fully amortize the loan in five years.
Solution:
The situation can be shown on the timeline:
r = 10%
n=0 1 2 3 4 5
1
1
(1 r ) n
PVAn PMT
r
Loan Amortization
It is possible to set up the equation and solve for the unknown variable PMT:
1
1
(1 0.1) 5
100,000 PMT
0 .1
PMT 26,379.75
The general formula that can be used to find the amount of the annual end-of-
year payment is
PVAn r
PMT
1 (1 r ) n
Loan Amortization
Solvency ratios reveal (1) the extent to which the firm is financed with debt and
(2) its likelihood of defaulting on its debt obligations.
Market value ratios relate the firm’s stock price to its earnings, cash flow, and
book value per share, thus giving management an indication of what
investors think of the company’s past performance and future prospects.
Uses and Types of Financial Ratios
Balance Sheet
Assets refer to the resources available to the company to carry out its
business. They are classified by degree of liquidity (i.e., availability) and
broken down into current assets and fixed assets.
The rule of thumb is that the current assets should be sufficient to cover short-
term debt obligations (such as operating loans), and long-term liabilities
(both debt and equity) should be sufficient to finance fixed assets.
Structure of the Balance Sheet
Exhibit 3.1. contains the financial reports of ABC Company, which we will use to
calculate and interpret various financial ratios.
Note that we have already analyzed the economic efficiency of this company in
Chapter 1.
Exhibit 3-1: Selected Financial reports, ABC Company
Fixed Assets
Net plant and equipment 1,000 870
Note: Cash fixed capital expenditures during 2015 = net fixed asset
investments + depreciation expense = 130 + 100 = 230
Liabilities 2015 2014
Current Liabilities
Accounts payable 60 30
Accruals 140 130
Notes payable 110 60
Total Current Liabilities 310 220
Shareholders’ Equity
Common stock (50k shares) 130 130
Retained earnings 810 750
Total Shareholders’ Equity 940 880
Liquidity Analysis
• Current ratio
• Quick ratio
• Cash ratio
Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio
Current assets
Current ratio
Current liabilities
It indicates the extent to which current liabilities are covered by those assets
expected to be converted to cash in the near future.
Current assets normally include cash, marketable securities, accounts
receivable, and inventories. Current liabilities consist of accounts payable,
short-term notes payable, current maturities of long-term debt, accrued taxes,
and other accrued expenses (principally wages).
The current ratio assumes that inventory and accounts receivable can readily be
converted into cash at close to their fair values.
Liquidity Ratios
Using the balance sheet data of the ABC company (see Exhibit 3-1), the
current ratio (CR) is
1,000
CR2015 3.2
310
CR (industry average) = 4.2
Comment:
The company’s CR is well below the average for its industry, 4.2, so its liquidity
position is relatively weak.
Liquidity Ratios
Quick Ratio
10 375
QR2015 1.2
310
The industry average quick ratio is 2.1, so the company’s 1.2 ratio is low in
comparison with other firms in its industry.
Still, if the accounts receivable can be collected, the company can pay off its
current liabilities without having to liquidate its inventory.
Liquidity Ratios
Cash Ratio
10
KR2015 0.032
310
The company’s cash and cash equivalents are far from being sufficient to cover
the current obligations.
Activity Ratios
Activity ratios are also known as asset utilization ratios or operating efficiency
ratios.
They measure how well a company manages its operations and particularly
how efficiently it manages its assets—working capital and long‐lived assets.
• Inventory turnover
Sales
Inventory turnover ratio
Inventories
A low inventory turnover relative to the rest of the industry can be an indicator of
slow moving or obsolete inventory. It suggests that the company has too
many resources tied up in inventory.
Activity Ratios
For the ABC company (see Exhibit 3-1), inventory turnover ratio (INV T/O) is
3,000
INV T / O2015 4.9 times
615
INV T/O (industry average) = 9.0 times
Comment:
As a rough approximation, each item of the company’s inventory is sold out
and restocked, or “turned over,” 4.9 times per year.
The company’s turnover of 4.9 times is much lower than the industry average
of 9 times. This suggests that the company is holding too much inventory.
Excess inventory is unproductive, and it represents an investment with a
low or zero rate of return.
The company’s low inventory turnover ratio also makes us question the current
ratio. With such a low turnover, we must wonder whether the firm is actually
holding obsolete goods not worth their stated value.
Activity Ratios
Receivables Receivables
Days sales outstanding
Average sales per day Annual sales / 365
Days sales outstanding (DSO) represents the average length of time that the
firm must wait after making a sale before receiving cash, which is the
average collection period.
It is considered desirable to have a collection period close to the industry norm.
A collection period that is too high might mean that customers are too slow in
paying their bills, which means too much capital is tied up in assets.
A collection period that is too low might indicate that the firm's credit policy is too
rigorous, which might be hampering sales.
Activity Ratios
375
DSO 2015 46 days
(3,000/365)
DSO (industry average) = 36 days
Comment:
The company has 46 days sales outstanding, well above the 36-day
industry average, which may indicate that customers are, on average,
not paying their bills on time.
Note:
DSO should also be evaluated by comparison with the terms on which the firm sells its goods. For example, if the
company’s sales terms call for payment within 30 days, the fact that 46 days’ sales, not 30 days’, are outstanding
indicates that customers, on the average, are not paying their bills on time. This deprives the company of funds that it
could use to invest in productive assets.
Moreover, in some instances the fact that a customer is paying late may signal that the customer is in financial trouble,
in which case the company may have a hard time ever collecting the receivable. Therefore, if the trend in DSO over the
past few years has been rising, but the credit policy has not been changed, this would be strong evidence that steps
should be taken to expedite the collection of accounts receivable.
Activity Ratios
Sales
Fixed assets turnover ratio
Net fixed assets
A higher ratio indicates more efficient use of fixed assets in generating revenue.
A low ratio could be an indicator of operating inefficiency. However, a low fixed
asset turnover can also be the result of a capital intensive business
environment.
Companies that have recently entered a new business that is not fully
operational also report low fixed asset turnover ratios.
The fixed asset turnover ratio will be lower for a firm whose assets are newer
than for a firm whose assets are relatively older. The older‐asset firm will
have depreciated its assets for a longer period so the book value of its fixed
assets will be lower.
Activity Ratios
Comment:
The company’s ratio of 3.0 times is equal to the industry average, indicating
that it is using its fixed assets about as intensively as are other firms in its
industry.
Therefore, the company seems to have about the right amount of fixed assets
in relation to other firms.
Note:
If all firms in the industry have been expanding at about the same rate (the balance sheets of the comparison firms
are reasonably comparable), the ratio may be useful for comparison, otherwise, a more detailed analysis of the
industry fixed asset base is required.
Activity Ratios
Sales
Total assets turnover ratio
Total assets
Low asset turnover ratios might mean that the company has too much capital
tied up in its asset base.
A turnover ratio that is too high might imply that the firm has too few assets for
potential sales, or that the asset base is outdated.
Activity Ratios
3,000
TA T / O2015 1.5 times
2,000
TA T/O (industry average) = 1.8 times
Comment:
The company’s ratio is somewhat below the industry average, indicating that
the company is not generating a sufficient volume of business given its total
assets investment.
Sales should be increased, some assets should be disposed of, or a
combination of these steps should be taken.
Financial Leverage
Financial Leverage
The extent to which a firm uses debt financing is called financial leverage.
Scenarios
Expected Conditions Bad Conditions
Sales 100.00 82.50
Operating costs 70.00 80.00
Operating income (EBIT) 30.00 2.50
Interest 0.00 0.00
Earnings before taxes 30.00 2.50
Taxes (40%) 12.00 1.00
Net income (NI) 18.00 1.50
Return on Equity (ROE) = NI / Common Equity 18.00% 1.50%
NI 18 13.5
Expected conditions: ROEU 18% ROE L 27%
TE 100 50
NI 1.5 3
Bad conditions: ROEU 1 .5 % ROE L 6%
TE 100 50
Firm L (leveraged)
Current assets 50 Debt (cost of debt, rd = 15%) 50
Fixed assets 50 Common equity 50
Total assets 100 Total liabilities and equity 100
Scenarios
Expected Conditions Bad Conditions
Sales 100.00 82.50
Operating costs 70.00 80.00
Operating income (EBIT) 30.00 2.50
Interest 7.50 7.50
Earnings before taxes 22.50 (5.00)
Taxes (40%) 9.00 (2.00)
Net income (NI) 13.50 (3.00)
Return on Equity (ROE) = NI / Common Equity 27.00% (6.00%)
Solvency Ratios
• Debt-to-assets ratio
• Debt-to-equity ratio
Solvency Ratios
Debt-to-Assets Ratio
Total debt
Debt - to - assets ratio
Total assets
A higher D/A ratio is undesirable because it implies higher financial risk and a
weaker solvency position.
Creditors prefer low debt-to-assets ratios because the lower the ratio, the
greater the cushion against creditors’ losses in the event of liquidation.
Stockholders, on the other hand, may want more leverage because it
magnifies expected earnings.
Solvency Ratios
310 750
D / A2015 0.53 53%
2,000
D/A (industry average) = 40%
Comment:
Company’s debt ratio is 53.0%, which means that its creditors have supplied
more than half the total financing.
The fact that the company’s D/A ratio exceeds the industry average should be
a concern and may make it costly for company to borrow additional funds
without first raising more equity capital. Creditors may be reluctant to lend
the firm more money, and management would probably be subjecting the
firm to the risk of bankruptcy if it sought to increase the D/A ratio any further
by borrowing additional funds.
Solvency Ratios
EBIT
Times interest earned (TIE) ratio
Interest charges
A higher ratio provides assurance that the company can service its debt from
operating earnings.
Solvency Ratios
283.8
TIE 2015 3.2 times
88
TIE (industry average) = 6.0 times
Comment:
Company’s interest is covered 3.2 times. Since the industry average is 6 times,
the company is covering its interest charges by a relatively low margin of
safety. Thus, the TIE ratio reinforces the conclusion from our analysis of the
D/A ratio that the company would face difficulties if it attempted to borrow
additional funds.
Profitability Ratios
Profitability Analysis
• Return on assets
• Return on equity
Profitability Ratios
Net income
Net profit margin
Sales
Net profit margin shows how much profit a company makes for every euro it
generates in revenue.
Managers should be concerned if this ratio is too low.
Note:
If two firms have identical operations in the sense that their sales, operating costs, and EBIT are the same, but if
one firm uses more debt than the other, it will have higher interest charges. Those interest charges will pull net
income down, and since sales are constant, the result will be a relatively low profit margin. In such a case, the low
profit margin would not indicate an operating problem, just a difference in financing strategies. Thus, the firm with
the low profit margin might end up with a higher rate of return on its stockholders’ investment due to its use of
financial leverage.
Profitability Ratios
117 .5
NPM 2015 0.039 3.9%
3,000
NPM (industry average) = 5%
Comment:
Company’s profit margin is below the industry average of 5%. This result
occurs because costs are too high. High costs, in turn, generally occur
because of inefficient operations. However, the company’s low profit margin
is also a result of its heavy use of debt.
Profitability Ratios
EBIT
Basic earning power (BEP)
Total assets
Shows the raw earning power of the firm’s assets, before the influence of taxes
and leverage, and it is useful for comparing firms with different tax situations
and different degrees of financial leverage.
Profitability Ratios
283.8
BEP2015 0.142 14.2%
2,000
BEP (industry average) = 17.2%
Comment:
The company is not earning as high a return on its assets as is the average
company in the industry.
Profitability Ratios
Return on Assets
Net income
Return on assets (ROA)
Total assets
Note:
It is recommended to use average total assets in the formula.
Profitability Ratios
117 .5
ROA2015 5.9%
2,000
ROA (industry average) = 9.0%
Comment:
The company’s 5.9% return is well below the 9% average for the industry.
Return on Equity
Net income
Return on equity (ROE)
Total equity
Note:
It is recommended to use average total equity in the formula.
Profitability Ratios
117 .5
ROE2015 12.5%
940
ROE (industry average) = 15.0%
Comment:
Shareholders invest to get a return on their money, and this ratio tells how well
they are doing in an accounting sense. The company’s 12.5% return is
below the 15% industry average, but not as far below as the return on total
assets.
This somewhat better result is due to the company’s greater use of debt.
DuPont Analysis
DuPont analysis is designed to show how the net profit margin, the assets
turnover ratio, and the use of debt interact to determine the rate of return on
equity (ROE).
The firm’s management can use the DuPont system to analyze ways of
improving the firm’s performance.
It is arguably the most important equation in ratio analysis, since it breaks
down a very important ratio, ROE, into three key components:
Comment:
The management can use the Du Pont system to analyze ways of improving
performance.
Focusing on the net profit margin side of its modified DuPont chart, the
company’s marketing department can study the effects of raising sales
prices (or lowering them to increase volume), of moving into new products
or markets with higher margins etc.
The company’s cost accountants can study various expense items and seek
ways to hold down costs.
On the asset turnover side, the firm’s financial analysts, working with both
production and marketing department, can investigate ways to reduce the
investment in various types of assets.
At the same time, the treasury staff can analyze the effects of alternative
financing strategies, seeking to hold down interest expense and the risk of
debt while still using leverage to increase the ROE.
DuPont Analysis
To separate the effects of taxes and interest, we can further decompose ROE
into five elements.
Interest burden
Tax burden basically measures the percentage of its pretax profits that a
company gets to keep. A higher tax burden ratio implies that the company can
keep a higher percentage of its pretax profits. A decrease in the tax burden
ratio implies the opposite.
Interest burden ratio captures the effect of interest expense on ROE. High
borrowing costs reduce ROE. As interest expense rises, earnings before tax
(EBT) will fall as a percentage of EBIT, the interest burden ratio will fall, and
ROE will also fall.
Example:
Consider the company’s financials given in the table below:
2015 2014 2013
ROE 20.62% 14.42% 10.17%
Tax burden 64.88% 62.52% 60.67%
Interest burden 130.54% 112.60% 130.50%
EBIT margin 6.51% 6.40% 4.84%
Total asset turnover 1.55 1.38 1.19
Leverage 2.42 2.32 2.24
Based on the data, comment on the positive trend in the company’s ROE.
Comment:
The trend in ROE (doubling in 3 years) did not result from a single aspect of
the company’s performance, but instead was a function of lower average
tax rates, increasing operating profits, greater efficiency, and increased use
of leverage.
DuPont Analysis
Problem 3-1:
Consider the following information about the company:
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
ROE 9.47% 15.00% 24.31% 25.82% 24.07%
Tax burden 64.85% 59.37% 63.24% 58.20% 62.58%
Interest burden 92.58% 92.45% 92.74% 92.85% 92.61%
EBIT margin 8.63% 10.41% 13.24% 15.69% 14.35%
Total asset turnover 0.85 1.21 1.47 1.44 1.58
Leverage 2.15 2.17 2.13 2.19 2.18
Based on the data, comment on the negative trend in the company’s ROE.
DuPont Analysis
Solution:
The following conclusions may be drawn from the given information:
The tax burden ratio has varied with no obvious trend over the years. The
recent increase in tax burden ratio (from 59.37% in 2010 to 64.85% in 2011)
indicates that taxes declined as a percentage of pre‐tax profits. Average tax
rates may have declined as a result of (1) new legislation or (2) greater
revenue generated in lower tax jurisdictions.
The interest burden ratio remained fairly constant over the period, which
suggests that the company’s capital structure has remained fairly constant.
The EBIT margin declined over the period, indicating that the company’s
operations were less profitable.
The company’s asset turnover declined over the period, which suggests that
the company is becoming increasingly inefficient.
The financial leverage ratio remained fairly constant over the period, which is
consistent with the stable interest burden ratio.
Overall, the decline in the company’s ROE is mainly caused by a decline in the
EBIT margin (profitability) and asset turnover (efficiency).
Altman Z-Score
Ratios and Credit Analysis
In 2012, Altman released an updated version called the Altman Z-score Plus that
one can use to evaluate public and private companies, manufacturing and
nonmanufacturing companies, and U.S. and non-U.S. companies. One can use
Altman Z-score Plus to evaluate corporate credit risk.
Chapter 4: CAPITAL BUDGETING
Categories of Projects
Expansion projects
These are taken on to expand the business and involve a complex decision-
making process since they require an explicit forecast of future demand. A
very detailed analysis is required.
Interactions Between Projects
Independent project is one where the decision to accept or reject the project
has no effect on any other projects being considered by the company. The
cash flows of an independent project have no effect on the cash flows of other
projects or divisions of the business.
e.g. the decision to replace a company's computer system would be considered independent of a decision to
build a new factory.
Mutually exclusive projects compete directly with each other for acceptance.
For independent projects, the NPV and IRR criteria for acceptance lead to the
same result:
• Accept the project if NPV > 0.
• Accept the project if IRR > cost of capital.
For mutually exclusive projects, NPV and IRR may offer different
recommendations. In such a situation, a company should select the project
with the higher NPV. NPV is a better criterion because of its more realistic
reinvestment rate assumption.
Principles of Capital Budgeting
Opportunity costs are cash flows that a firm will lose by undertaking the
project under analysis.
These are cash flows generated by an asset the firm already owns that
would be forgone if the project under consideration is undertaken.
Opportunity costs should be included in project costs.
Principles of Capital Budgeting
Capital budgeting decisions account for the time value of money, which
means that cash flows received earlier are worth more than cash flows
to be received later.
Principles of Capital Budgeting
Generally, we can classify incremental cash flows for capital projects as:
Initial investment outlay (CF0) is the up-front costs associated with the
investment project:
Generally, we can classify incremental cash flows for capital projects as:
ATOCFt ( S t Ct Dt ) (1 t ) Dt
Evaluation of Expansion Projects
Generally, we can classify incremental cash flows for capital projects as:
ATOCFt ( S t Ct Dt ) (1 t ) Dt
Cash Sales
(generated over period t)
Evaluation of Expansion Projects
Generally, we can classify incremental cash flows for capital projects as:
ATOCFt ( S t Ct Dt ) (1 t ) Dt
Generally, we can classify incremental cash flows for capital projects as:
ATOCFt ( S t Ct Dt ) (1 t ) Dt
Although depreciation is a noncash
Depreciation expense, it has an impact on operating
(accumulated over period t) cash flow as it reduces the amount of
taxes paid by the company.
The higher the depreciation charged by
the company, the higher the resulting tax
savings.
Evaluation of Expansion Projects
Generally, we can classify incremental cash flows for capital projects as:
ATOCFt ( S t Ct Dt ) (1 t ) Dt
Tax rate
Evaluation of Expansion Projects
Generally, we can classify incremental cash flows for capital projects as:
At the end of the project's life, there are certain cash inflows that occur. These
are the after-tax salvage value and the return of the net working capital:
Generally, we can classify incremental cash flows for capital projects as:
At the end of the project's life, there are certain cash inflows that occur. These
are the after-tax salvage value and the return of the net working capital:
Salvage value:
pre-tax cash proceeds from sale
of fixed capital
(end of period T)
Evaluation of Expansion Projects
Generally, we can classify incremental cash flows for capital projects as:
At the end of the project's life, there are certain cash inflows that occur. These
are the after-tax salvage value and the return of the net working capital:
recovery of
working capital investment
Evaluation of Expansion Projects
Generally, we can classify incremental cash flows for capital projects as:
At the end of the project's life, there are certain cash inflows that occur. These
are the after-tax salvage value and the return of the net working capital:
Book value of
the fixed capital sold
(end of period T)
Evaluation of Expansion Projects
Net present value (NPV) is the sum of the present values of all the expected
incremental cash flows if a project is undertaken. The discount rate used is
the firm's cost of capital, adjusted for the risk level of the project.
where:
CF0 = initial investment outlay (this amount is typically negative)
ATOCFt = after-tax operating cash flow (over period t)
TNOCFt = terminal year after-tax non-operating cash flow (at the end of period t)
r = required rate of return for a project
Evaluation of Expansion Projects
Net present value (NPV) is the sum of the present values of all the expected
incremental cash flows if a project is undertaken. The discount rate used is
the firm's cost of capital, adjusted for the risk level of the project.
Example 4.1:
Using the project cash flows presented in the table below, compute the NPV of
each project’s cash flows and determine for each project if it should be
accepted or rejected. Assume that the cost of capital is 10%.
Year Project A Project B
0 -€2,000 -€2,000
1 1,000 200
2 800 600
3 600 800
4 200 1,200
1,000 800 600 200
NPV A 2,000 €157.64
(1 0.1) (1 0.1) (1 0.1) (1 0.1)
1 2 3 4
For a normal project, internal rate of return (IRR) is the discount rate that
makes the present value (PV) of the expected incremental after-tax cash
inflows just equal to the initial cost of the project. More generally, the IRR is
the discount rate that makes the present values of a project's estimated
cash inflows equal to the present value of the project's estimated cash
outflows. That is, IRR is the discount rate that makes the following
relationship hold:
The IRR is also the discount rate for which the NPV of a project is equal to
zero.
n
CF1 CF2 CFn CFt
NPV 0 CF0 ...
(1 IRR) (1 IRR)
1 2
(1 IRR) n
t 0 (1 IRR )
t
IRR Decision Rule
• First, determine the required rate of return for a given project. This is usually
the firm's cost of capital (rWACC).
• Note that the required rate of return may be higher or lower than the firm's
cost of capital to adjust for differences between project risk and the firm's
average project risk.
The higher the IRR on a project and the greater the amount by which it
exceeds the cost of capital, the higher the net cash flows to the investor.
Relative Advantages and Disadvantages of NPV and IRR
Example 4.2:
The company would like to set up a new plant (expand). Currently, it has an
option to buy an existing building at a cost of €24,000. Necessary
equipment for the plant will cost €16,000, including installation costs. The
project would also require an initial investment of €12,000 in net working
capital. The initial working capital investment will be made at the time of the
purchase of the building and equipment.
Example 4.2:
The company would like to set up a new plant (expand). Currently, it has an
option to buy an existing building at a cost of €24,000. Necessary
equipment for the plant will cost €16,000, including installation costs. The
project would also require an initial investment of €12,000 in net working
capital. The initial working capital investment will be made at the time of the
purchase of the building and equipment.
Solution:
CF0 FCInv NWCInv (24,000 16,000) 12,000 52,000
Evaluation of Expansion Projects
Example 4.2:
The project is expected to generate annual sales of €80,000 over four years.
The production department has estimated that variable manufacturing costs
will total 60% of sales and that fixed overhead costs, excluding
depreciation, will be €10,000 a year.
The effective tax rate = 40%. Cost of capital = 12%.
Depreciation expense will be determined for the year in accordance with the
accelerated depreciation method. Pre-tax depreciation for the building and
equipment is as follows:
Depreciation expense
Year 1 3,512
Year 2 5,744
Year 3 3,664
Year 4 2,544
Example 4.2:
The project is expected to generate annual sales of €80,000 over four years.
The production department has estimated that variable manufacturing costs
will total 60% of sales and that fixed overhead costs, excluding
depreciation, will be €10,000 a year.
The effective tax rate = 40%. Cost of capital = 12%.
Depreciation expense will be determined for the year in accordance with the
accelerated depreciation method. Pre-tax depreciation for the building and
equipment is as follows:
Depreciation expense
Year 1 3,512
Year 2 5,744
Year 3 3,664
Year 4 2,544
Solution:
ATOCFt ( S t Ct Dt ) (1 t ) Dt
Example 4.2:
The project is expected to generate annual sales of €80,000 over four years.
The production department has estimated that variable manufacturing costs
will total 60% of sales and that fixed overhead costs, excluding
depreciation, will be €10,000 a year.
The effective tax rate = 40%. Cost of capital = 12%.
Depreciation expense will be determined for the year in accordance with the
accelerated depreciation method. Pre-tax depreciation for the building and
equipment is as follows:
Depreciation expense
Year 1 3,512
Year 2 5,744
Year 3 3,664
Year 4 2,544
Solution:
Example 4.2:
The project's estimated economic life is 4 years. At the end of that time, the
building is expected to have a market value of €15,000 and a book value of
€21,816, whereas the equipment is expected to have a market value of
€4,000 and a book value of €2,720.
The effective tax rate = 40%. Cost of capital = 12%.
Example 4.2:
The project's estimated economic life is 4 years. At the end of that time, the
building is expected to have a market value of €15,000 and a book value of
€21,816, whereas the equipment is expected to have a market value of
€4,000 and a book value of €2,720.
The effective tax rate = 40%. Cost of capital = 12%.
Solution:
Example 4.2:
The project's estimated economic life is 4 years. At the end of that time, the
building is expected to have a market value of €15,000 and a book value of
€21,816, whereas the equipment is expected to have a market value of
€4,000 and a book value of €2,720.
The effective tax rate = 40%. Cost of capital = 12%.
4. Find the net present value. Would the expansion add value to the firm?
Evaluation of Expansion Projects
Example 4.2:
The project's estimated economic life is 4 years. At the end of that time, the
building is expected to have a market value of €15,000 and a book value of
€21,816, whereas the equipment is expected to have a market value of
€4,000 and a book value of €2,720.
The effective tax rate = 40%. Cost of capital = 12%.
Solution:
ATOCF1 ATOCF2 ATOCF3 ATOCF4 TNOCF4
NPV CF0
(1 r ) 1
(1 r ) 2
(1 r ) 3
(1 r ) 4
Step 1:
We must first reflect the sale of the old asset in the calculation of the initial outlay
(CF0). The initial investment (cash outflow) for a replacement project is
reduced by the salvage value of the equipment being replaced (SV0) (cash
inflow) and increased by taxes paid on any gain on sale of the equipment
being replaced (cash outflow).
Step 1:
We must first reflect the sale of the old asset in the calculation of the initial outlay
(CF0). The initial investment (cash outflow) for a replacement project is
reduced by the salvage value of the equipment being replaced (SV0) (cash
inflow) and increased by taxes paid on any gain on sale of the equipment
being replaced (cash outflow).
Step 1:
We must first reflect the sale of the old asset in the calculation of the initial outlay
(CF0). The initial investment (cash outflow) for a replacement project is
reduced by the salvage value of the equipment being replaced (SV0) (cash
inflow) and increased by taxes paid on any gain on sale of the equipment
being replaced (cash outflow).
Step 1:
We must first reflect the sale of the old asset in the calculation of the initial outlay
(CF0). The initial investment (cash outflow) for a replacement project is
reduced by the salvage value of the equipment being replaced (SV0) (cash
inflow) and increased by taxes paid on any gain on sale of the equipment
being replaced (cash outflow).
Step 1:
We must first reflect the sale of the old asset in the calculation of the initial outlay
(CF0). The initial investment (cash outflow) for a replacement project is
reduced by the salvage value of the equipment being replaced (SV0) (cash
inflow) and increased by taxes paid on any gain on sale of the equipment
being replaced (cash outflow).
Step 2:
Calculate the incremental operating cash flows as the cash flows from the new
asset minus the cash flows from the old asset.
Increase in sales
as a result of replacement
Evaluation of Replacement Projects
Step 2:
Calculate the incremental operating cash flows as the cash flows from the new
asset minus the cash flows from the old asset.
Step 2:
Calculate the incremental operating cash flows as the cash flows from the new
asset minus the cash flows from the old asset.
Increase in depreciation
as a result of replacement
Evaluation of Replacement Projects
Step 3:
At the end of the project, fixed capital is sold and taxes are paid on any gain on
sale.
Since only incremental cash flows are relevant in the analysis of a replacement
project, terminal year after-tax non operating cash flow consists of:
• Incremental cash flow over the selling price of an old fixed asset (ΔSVT);
• Recovery of additional investment in net working capital (NWCInv);
• Incremental cash flow from taxes on gains on disposal.
Given the company’s incremental cash flows and a cost of capital of 11.5%, NPV for
the project can be computed as:
ATOCF1 ATOCF2 ATOCF3 ATOCF4 ATOCF5 TNOCF5
NPV CF0
(1 r ) 1
(1 r ) 2
(1 r ) 3
(1 r ) 4
(1 r ) 5
3,200 5,400
1,197.28
(1 0.115) 5
Decision: Since NPV < 0 and IRR < cost of capital, the company should not replace
the printer with the new copier, because this would .
Capital Rationing
Capital Rationing
Profitability Index
The profitability index (PI) of an investment equals the present value (PV) of
a project’s future cash flows divided by the initial investment. Therefore, the
PI is the ratio of future discounted cash flows to the initial investment.
PI indicates the value that a company receives in exchange for one unit of
currency invested. It is also known as the “benefit‐cost” ratio.
A company should invest in a project if its PI > 1. The PI is greater than 1 when
NPV is positive.
n
CFt
t 1 (1 r )
t
NPV
PI 1
CF0 CF0
Profitability Index
Example 5.4:
Consider a project which has the following cash flows:
Year Cash flow
0 –1,000
1 200
2 300
3 400
4 500
Assuming the required rate of return of 5%, determine the project’s profitability
index (PI).
Solution:
Example 5.5:
The management of the firm has a capital budget of €2,000 that it can use to
invest in the following projects. Assuming that the projects are not divisible,
which project(s) should the company invest in?
Solution:
When 2 projects are mutually exclusive, the firm may choose one project or
the other, but not both. If mutually exclusive projects have different lives,
and the projects are expected to be replaced indefinitely as they wear out,
an adjustment needs to be made in the decision-making process.
There are 2 procedures to make this adjustment:
• Least common multiple of lives approach.
• Equivalent annual annuity (EAA) approach.
Example:
Project A Project B
Initial investment $2,000 $1,000
Life of project 4 years 3 years
Annual after-tax cash flows Year 1: $600 Year 1: $500
Year 2: $800 Year 2: $800
Year 3: $1,000 Year 3: $800
Year 4: $1,200
Cost of capital 10% 10%
NPV $777.54 $716.75
IRR 24.89% 44.07%
Mutually Exclusive Projects With Different Lives
Least Common Multiple of Lives Approach
In this approach, both projects are repeated until their “chains” extend over the same time
horizon. Given equal time horizons, the NPVs of the two project chains are compared
and the project with the higher chain NPV is chosen.
In the example above, Project A has a life of 4 years, while Project B has a life of 3 years.
The least common multiple of 4 and 3 is 12, which means that in order to compare the
two projects (over an identical time horizon) we would need to replicate Project A
three times and Project B four times.
Timeline 2: Project A
Timeline
- 2: Project B
Mutually Exclusive Projects With Different Lives
Timeline 3: Project A
Timeline 4: Project B
Over an identical horizon, the replacement chain for Project B has a higher NPV
than the replacement chain for Project A. Therefore, the company should
choose Project B.
Mutually Exclusive Projects With Different Lives
Equivalent Annual Annuity (EAA) Approach
This approach calculates the annuity payment (equal annual payment) over the
project’s life that is equivalent in present value (PV) to the project’s NPV. The
project with the higher EAA is chosen.
For our example, the EAAs of the two projects are calculated as:
Project A:
n = 4; r = 0.1; PVAn = 777.54
Using PV of ordinary annuity formula, solve for PMT (annuity payment):
1 1
1 1
(1 0.1) 4
(1 r ) n
PVAn PMT 777.54 PMT
r 0.1
Project B:
n = 3; r = 0.1; PVAn = 716.75
PMT = 288.22
Since Project B has a higher EAA, it should be chosen over Project A.
Capital Projects: Risk Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
With sensitivity analysis, we start with the base-case scenario. Base case
would be the:
Example:
The company is analyzing an expansion project with the following cash flow
forecasts:
Solution:
Base-case scenario NPV is calculated as:
FCInv 60,000
NWCInv 15,000
CF0 FCInv NWCInv 60,000 15,000 75,000
S Q P 1,500 50 75,000
C TVC FC (20 1,500) 5,000 35,000
initial fixed asset cost 60,000
D(using straight - line approach) 20,000
useful life 3
ATOCF13 ( S C D)(1 t ) D (75,000 35,000 20,000)(1 0.4) 20,000 32,000
TNOCF3 SV3 t ( SV3 BV3 ) NWCInv 10,000 0.4(10,000 0) 15,000 21,000
Using the cost of capital of 15%, the NPV of the project is calculated as
3
32,000 21,000
NPV 75,000 €11,871
t 1 (1 0.15) (1 0.15)
t 3
IRR 23.5%
Input Estimate Down 20% Base Case Up 20% Comment:
Unit sales NPV – €458 €11,871 €24,200 The project’s NPV and IRR are
most sensitive to changes in
IRR 14.7% 23.5% 32.2% price because when price
Price NPV – €8,678 €11,871 €32,420 drops by 20% the NPV goes
from positive to negative.
IRR 8.6% 23.5% 37.8% The project is also sensitive to
Variable costs NPV €20,091 €11,871 €3,651 changes in unit sales because
IRR 29.3% 23.5% 17.6% a 20% drop in sales will
generate a negative NPV.
Fixed costs NPV €13,241 €11,871 €10,501
IRR 24.5% 23.5% 22.5% The project appears to be
least sensitive to changes in
Salvage value NPV €11,083 €11,871 €12,660 the estimate of salvage value
IRR 23% 23.5% 24% and fixed costs.
Capital Projects: Risk Analysis
Scenario Analysis
Example:
Continuing with the previous example, we can run a scenario analysis of the
company as shown in the table:
Worst Case Base Case Best Case
Unit sales Down 20% 1,500 Up 20%
Price Down 20% €50.00 Up 20%
Variable costs Up 20% €20.00 Down 20%
Fixed costs Up 20% €5,000 Down 20%
Salvage value Down 20% €10,000 Up 20%
NPV – €25,632 €11,871 €60,882
IRR – 4.4% 23.5% 56.8%
Capital Projects: Risk Analysis
Simulation Analysis
Example:
The steps in simulation analysis may be as follows:
Step 1: Assume a specific probability distribution for each input variable. For example, we
might assume that unit sales are normally distributed with a mean of 100,000 and a
standard deviation of 15,000, unit prices are normally distributed with a mean of €40
and a standard deviation of €5, and so on for each input variable. We don't
necessarily have to assume a normal distribution for each variable, however.
Step 2: Simulate a random draw from the assumed distribution of each input variable.
That results in a single value for each of the inputs. For example, our first draw might
be unit sales of 85,000, a unit price of €42.00, and so on.
Step 3: Given each of the inputs from Step 2, calculate the project NPV
Step 4: Repeat Step 2 and Step 3 10,000 times.
Step 5: Calculate the mean NPV, the standard deviation of the NPV, and the correlation
of NPV with each input variable.
Step 6: Graph the resulting 10,000 NPV outcomes as a probability distribution.
Capital Projects: Risk Analysis
For example, our NPV probability distribution for a simulation analysis might look like one
in the Figure. Notice that the probability distribution in the Figure is not symmetrical or
necessarily perfectly normal. That will typically be the case, although with a large
number of observations, the distribution is likely to be approximately normal.
Calculation of Discount Rate for a Capital Project Using Market Risk Methods
Market risk depends not only on the variation of a project’s cash flows but also
on how those cash flows correlate with market returns.
When using market risk measures, the applicable discount rate should reflect
the rate of return required by a diversified investor, and the risk premium
should only reflect factors that are priced in the marketplace (as opposed to
those that can be diversified away).
Practitioners typically use the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to calculate
this discount rate (although others like the APT can also be used). The
CAPM breaks down total risk into:
• Systematic risk that is related to the market and is nondiversifiable. It is
typically measured by beta (β). Only systematic risk is priced in the market.
Diversified investors demand a risk premium for bearing systematic risk.
• Unsystematic risk is nonmarket risk that can be diversified away.
Diversification is a risk management technique that mixes a wide variety of investments within a portfolio. The
rationale behind this technique contends that a portfolio constructed of different kinds of investments will,
on average, yield higher returns and pose a lower risk than any individual investment found within the
portfolio.
Discount Rate Based on Market Risk Methods
The security market line (SML) expresses the asset’s required rate of return
as a function of β (systematic risk).
ri RF i ( E ( RM ) RF )
Note:
Stand‐alone risk measures (such as the
where:
dispersion of a project’s expected NPVs
ri = required return for project or asset i and IRRs) are inappropriate when the
company is diversified or when its
RF = risk-free rate of return shareholders are diversified investors.
β = beta of project or asset i
[E(RM) – RF] = market risk premium
According to the SML, the required rate of return (or hurdle rate) varies with
each project according to its systematic risk (beta). The required rate of
return can be used to calculate NPVs and to evaluate IRRs, and then to
make capital budgeting decisions.
Discount Rate Based on Market Risk Methods
Example:
Using the SML to Find the Required Rate of Return for a Project
The management of Beta Construction is provided with the following information
regarding a new investment. Determine whether the company should invest in
the project.
Solution:
First, we use the SML to determine the required rate of return for the project.
Given a hurdle rate of 11%, NPV equals $80,001.45. The IRR equals 16.18%.
Both these capital budgeting techniques indicate that the company should
invest in the project.
Note:
Using a project's beta to determine discount rates is important when the risk of a project is different
from the risk of the overall company. Such a project-specific discount rate is also called a hurdle
rate. Hurdle rates vary from project to project.
The cost of capital (rWACC) reflects the riskiness of the company’s assets and its financial structure. It
represents the average risk of all projects undertaken by the company. Using the rWACC as the
discount rate will result in an overstated NPV for a relatively risky project, and an understated
NPV for a relatively conservative project.
Important Considerations in Capital Budgeting
• Using the IRR criterion for project decisions. Using IRR may result in
conflicts with the NPV approach for mutually exclusive projects. The NPV
criterion is economically sound, accurately reflects the goal of maximizing
shareholder wealth, and should drive the project accept/reject decision when
IRR and NPV are in conflict.
• Using the incorrect discount rate. The required rate of return on the
project should reflect the project's risk. Simply using the company's WACC
as a discount rate without adjusting it for the risk of the project may lead to
significant errors when estimating the NPV of a project.