Global Climate Change

Elements of Ecology: Chapter 27

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Model Uncertainty—Hurricane Irma
Wednesday, 8/30/17

http://static.lakana.com/bmg-wctitv-media-us-east-1/photo/2017/09/01/9-1-17%20Tropical%20Spaghetti%20Plots_1504295092252_8375788_ver1.0_640_360.png
Model Uncertainty—Hurricane Irma Saturday, 9/2/17

https://tribwttv.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/spaghetti-plot.png?w=770&h=433
Model Uncertainty—Hurricane Irma predictions
9/3/17

http://www.wltx.com/img/resize/content.wltx.com/photo/2017/09/04/Capture1_1504570277503_10595731_ver1.0.JPG?preset=video-still
Uncertainty—Hurricane Irma Monday, 9/4/17

https://i2.wp.com/media.globalnews.ca/videostatic/27/299/2017-09-06T15-33-39.866Z--1280x720.jpg?w=670&quality=70&strip=all
Uncertainty—Hurricane Irma Friday, 9/8/17

http://cdn.tegna-media.com/wtsp/weather/W_SPAGHETTI16X9.jpg
• Climate has warmed ~0.74C over the past 100 yrs.
The ocean has absorbed > 80 percent of the added heat.

• Rate of warming during the second half of the century

has been about 2X that of the first half.

• Temperature changes are not equal across Earth’s

surface: polar regions have warmed the most,
especially the Arctic

• Winter months show the greatest warming. Diurnal

temp ranges have decreased; minimum temps have
risen 2X as fast as maximum.
• 10% decrease in snow cover/ice extent since the
late 1960s

• Average global ocean temp has increased (down

to at least 3000 feet)

• Precipitation changes not uniform spatially or

temporally

• Phenology changing (timing, range of plants)

• Migration dates shifting

Global changes in snow cover, Arctic sea ice, upper
ocean heat content, and average sea levels
• Pre-industrial level of atmospheric carbon dioxide was 280 ppm.

• CO2 level in 2014 was 398 ppm, predicted to double sometime

this century
• CO2 level in 2018 was 407.4 ppm.
• CO2 level in 2019 was 414.7 ppm.

• CO2 is not the only greenhouse gas:

– methane (CH4)
– chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
– hydrogenated chlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)
– nitrous oxide (N2O)
 • CO2 is not the only greenhouse gas:
– Methane (CH4)
– Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
– Hydrogenated chlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)
– Nitrous oxide (N2O)

Methane leak, from the

Permian Basin oil fields,
April 2020.

Methane traps heat ~30x

more than CO2.

https://cbsnews2.cbsistatic.com/hub/i/r/2020/04/25/5c914860-eb26-447b-a2e0-5a3c961000b1/thumbnail/1200x630/905d217f1da18254a9d7d4dd7e943c14/permian-methane-edf.jpg
 http://cmmap.colostate.edu/images/
learn/modeling/climateSystem.jpg

• Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere warm Earth’s surface

• General circulation models (GCMs) are complex computer
climate models that give insight into the influence of increasing
CO2 concentration on large-scale patterns of global climate
• There are some consistent patterns in the
predictions from these GCMs:
– increase in average global temperature: IPCC
(2013) suggests increase of 1.1- 6.4C by
2100
– increase in global precipitation

• Changes would not be evenly distributed: greatest

warming during winter in northern latitudes
(we’re already seeing this)
www.emsc.nysed.gov/.../units/8/u8d.html
 Global Warming

• Humans are putting huge amounts of CO 2 and

other greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere

• Measurable global climate change has coincided

with this increase in greenhouse gasses

• Historically warm periods have also been periods

with high CO2 levels
Take Home Messages About Climate Change
• Global climate change is real and it is happening NOW. The
evidence is overwhelming and from many different systems.

• Earth’s average temperature has risen 1.4º F in the last 100 years
http://www.chicagotribune.com/features/la-sh-nasa-6-decades-global-warming-20140122,0,12
91217.story

• Average temperature is projected to rise another 2º – 11.5º F in the

next 100 years

• More than 7.2ºF (4ºC) is considered catastrophic

• Human activity is largely responsible, primarily through fossil

fuel use, also through deforestation, industry, and agricultural
practices
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/basics/#responsible
 Global Climate Change

• Warming effects Earth’s natural cycles

(hydrologic, carbon, nitrogen)

• Can cause global weather disruptions

• Can speed up decomposition and CO 2 and N

turnover

• Can affect species and cause extinctions

 Climate Change: Causes
• Increased fossil fuel use (coal,
gasoline, oil, natural gas)

• Agriculture (CO2 + methane)

• Cows (methane)

• Deforestation (CO2)

• Fires (CO2)
 Temperature Affects the Carbon Cycle
• Atmospheric CO2 causes greenhouse effect

• More CO2 —> warmer temperatures

• Soil stores 2-3x more carbon than atmosphere

• Soil could add a lot of CO2 to the atmosphere due to

carbon cycle
 Ocean Currents affect Climate
• Warm the oceans and global weather patterns can
be disrupted

• Warm the oceans and the amount of carbon held in

them changes

• Warm the oceans and sensitive creatures can’t

survive
http://www.google.com/imgres?q=ocean+warming&um=1&hl=en&sa=N&biw=1408&bih=917&tbm=isch&tbnid=FwD-yGtkLg2toM:&imgrefurl=http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/
sealevel_multimedia_prt.htm&docid=atL-r8vG2eSHXM&imgurl=http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/
121630main_slr_thermal.jpg&w=2712&h=2312&ei=XIiYT4XSGYWSgwfYg_z4Bg&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=176&vpy=288&dur=9692&hovh=207&hovw=243&tx=145&ty=85&sig=1079770791066947
48271&page=1&tbnh=134&tbnw=155&start=0&ndsp=35&ved=1t:429,r:7,s:0,i:84
 Global Climate Change

• Change weather patterns and get:

– Shift in rainfall patterns

– Disruption of migration events

– Change in phenology (when events occur)

– Shift in species found in a given area

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/03/science/03flowers.html
 Polar Bears and Global Warming

http://www.poster.net/wolfe-art/wolfe-art-polar-bear-and-cub-manitoba-canada-8400878.jpg
 How Polar Bears Use Ice
• Shelter (dens)

• Hunting seals: caught when

they come up through holes
in the ice to breathe

• Breeding: Spring-Summer
(March-June)
• April-June seal feed may
account for 70-80% of
annual calories
• Polar bear populations today:
~20,000

• 15% drop in birth rates has

already occurred

• Polar bears are significantly

underweight: 15-20% below
normal

• Multiple documented polar bear

drownings
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/content/dam/photography/PROOF/2017/December/starving_polar_bear/
01-starving-polar-bear-CGM_Archimedes_2017_02072.jpg

https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/polar-bear.jpg?w=748&h=494&crop=1
Trends in Arctic Sea Ice Coverage

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_ice.html
 Sea Ice
• Declining at ~9% per
decade

• Summer ice could be

completely gone by 2040*

• Arctic ice would no longer

be present year-round
www.emsc.nysed.gov/.../units/8/u8d.html
 Climate Change: Effects
• Loss of polar ice caps
• Rising sea levels
• Shift in weather patterns
• Desertification
• Loss of coral reefs
• Loss of many species
• Range expansion of some
species
• Long-term research on the WAP region has revealed a significant warming trend during
the past half century. Satellite observations show that sea ice extent in the WAP area has
declined during this period, and the sea ice season has shortened (Smith & Stammerjohn
2001).

• A decrease in the number of cold years with heavy winter sea ice produced habitat
conditions more suitable for ice-intolerant (Chinstrap & Gentoo), as opposed to ice-
dependent (Adelie), penguins.
• Data from LTER 20 years of research: http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://lternet.edu/vignettes/images/palfig1.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.lternet.edu/vignettes/
pal.html&h=254&w=400&sz=14&hl=en&start=15&tbnid=iOf2MwATcaMMZM:&tbnh=79&tbnw=124&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dpast%2Badelie%2Bpenguin%2Bdistribution%26gbv
%3D2%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den
 Some Possible Effects of a Warmer World:
Agriculture

• Shifts in food producing

areas

• Changes in crop yields

• Increased need for

irrigation
http://www.discoverlife.org/IM/EL_DP/0010/mx/Agriculture,Irrigation_circles,aerial,EL_DP1052.jpg

• Increased pests, crop

diseases, weeds
 Some Possible Effects of a Warmer World:
Biodiversity

• Habitat loss

• Change in range and

distribution of species

• Disruption of aquatic life

• Extinction of plants and

animals
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/dd796e668ef0a512c664556dc3a7c82d
 2016 = the worst year of Great Barrier Reef
bleaching on record; 2017 = 2/3 of GBR bleached

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/74F0/production/_95563992_1d6a46f3-de51-45a9-8d4b-3459bb6d979c.jpg
http://www.climatehotmap.org
 Some Possible Effects of a Warmer World:
Weather
• Prolonged heat waves and drought

• Increased flooding of low-lying

areas

• More frequent “100-year floods”

• More intense storms

• More frequent storms

 Some Possible Effects of a Warmer World:
Water Resources
• Changes in water supply

• Decreased water quality

• Increased drought in some areas

• Increased flooding in other areas

Georgia flood 2009

http://www.chicagotribune.com/features/chi-pod-pix,0,6615505.photogallery

Atlanta drought 2007

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&iid=i4RiVIYrUP5k
 Some Possible Effects of a Warmer World:
Forests
• Changes in composition and
location
• Disappearance of some forests
(and higher CO2)
• Increased drying  increased
fires and higher CO2
• Decreased resistance to
diseases and pests
• Habitat and species loss

Forest damage in South Dakota due to mountain pine beetle

http://www.dodworkshops.org/mountain_pine_beetle_damage.jpg
 Some Possible Effects of a Warmer World:
Sea Levels and Coasts
• Rising sea levels

• Flooding of low-lying
islands and coastal
communities

• Flooding of estuaries and

wetlands; fisheries disruption
• Beach erosion
This photo, taken while the Virginia Beach Erosion
Control and Hurrican Protection Project was
underway, shows the significant difference between
the unimproved area (top of photo) and the area of
the widened beach berm already completed. (Photo
courtesy of Virginia Beach). Cost: $120 million.
Coral Bleaching
 Some Possible Effects of a Warmer World:
Human Health

• Increased death from heat and disease

• Disruption of food and water supplies
• Spread of tropical diseases and pests to
temperate areas
• Increased respiratory disease (blowing dust)
• Increased allergies (longer flowering season)
• Increased coastal water pollution from flooding
• Freshwater polluted by seawater
 Some Possible Effects of a Warmer World:
Human Populations

• Increased deaths due to

disaster

• Increased deaths due to

disease
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/43035000/jpg/

• More environmental
_43035449_umbrellas_ap416.jpg

Bangladesh flood , 2007.

refugees

• Increased migration
Building Collapse Due to Melting Permafrost
Forest Collapse due to Melting Permafrost
 Dealing with Climate Change
• Reduce use of fossil fuels (drive less, use less electricity)

• Use and share more efficient technology

• Use renewable energy sources (wind, solar)

• Reduce deforestation; plant trees

• Use sustainable agriculture (low chemical)

• Limit human population growth

Glacier National Park, Montana: 1911 vs.
2000
Upsala Glacier
Rhone Glacier
Denali 1919 vs. 2004
Muir Glacier 1941 vs. 2004
Holgate Glacier 1909 vs. 2004
Pasterze Glacier, Austria
Portage Glacier, Alaska 1914-2004
 Mount Kilimanjaro,
Kenya: 1993 vs. 2000
Combining the data sets from NOAA and NASA finds:
• The five warmest years in the global record have all come in the 2010s
• The 10 warmest years on record have all come since 1998
• The 20 warmest years on record have all come since 1995
http://assets.climatecentral.org/images/made/2018GlobalTempReview_Bars_F_en_title_sm_660_371_s_c1_c_c.jpg
http://assets.climatecentral.org/images/made/2018GlobalTempReview_Bars_F_en_title_sm_660_371_s_c1_c_c.jpg
http://assets.climatecentral.org/images/made/2018GlobalTempReview_Bars_F_en_title_sm_660_371_s_c1_c_c.jpg
 Climate Change:
Seasonal Effects in Illinois

http://assets.climatecentral.org/images/made/2018GlobalTempReview_Bars_F_en_title_sm_660_371_s_c1_c_c.jpg
A map of the globe of that indicates noteworthy climate and weather events that occurred around the world
in 2017. (NOAA NCEI) https://www.noaa.gov/news/noaa-2017-was-3rd-warmest-year-on-record-for-globe
U.S. Carbon Emissions by Sector

http://rs.resalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/usa_emissions.gif
Sources of U.S. CO2 Emissions

http://www.recycled-energy.com/images/uploads/co2_emissions_pie_large.png
U.S. CO2 Emissions by Source (2003)

http://www.lowimpactliving.com/images/carbon-dioxide-emissions.gif
Sources of U.S. CO2 Emissions (2008)

http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/images/gw/US-CO2-emissions-by-source-faq.PNG
http://climatelab.org/@api/deki/files/89/=646px-Greenhouse_Gas_by_Sector.png
 Sources of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

* Agriculture is the
primary driver of land use
change and deforestation

http://earthtrends.wri.org/images/GHG_emissions_by_sector2.jpg
Take Home Messages About Climate Change
• Climate change is affecting humans and will
continue to do so.

• Some climate change is unavoidable—CO 2

can stay in the atmosphere for nearly 100
years

• We can reduce the impact and amount of

climate change by taking action now

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/basics/#responsible
 Take Home Messages About Climate Change
• In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO 2, we need
to rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or
enhance natural sinks

• We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to

make large cuts in emissions

• No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of

strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that
avoids a CO2 doubling

• Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs

 Stabilization Wedges
Tackling the Climate Problem with Existing Technologies

This presentation is based on the “Stabilization Wedges” concept first presented in

"Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years with Current Technologies,” S.
Pacala and R. Socolow, Science, August 13, 2004.
Please credit the Carbon Mitigation Inititative, Princeton University
 Historical Emissions

Billions of Tons
16
Carbon Emitted per
Year

8 Historical
emissions

0
1950 2000 2050 2100
 The Stabilization Triangle

Billions of Tons
16
Carbon Emitted per
Year

”
p
am
= “r
t h
pa
rrent Stabilization
Cu
Triangle Interim Goal

8 Historical
emissions
Flat path

1.6

0
1950 2000 2050 2100
 The Stabilization Triangle

Billions of Tons Easier CO2 target

16
Carbon Emitted per ~850 ppm
Year

”
p
am
= “r
t h
pa
rrent Stabilization
Cu
Triangle Interim Goal

8 Historical
emissions To
Flat path ug
he
~5 r CO
00
pp 2 targ
m et
1.6

0
1950 2000 2050 2100
 Princeton Wedge
(Pacala and Socolow, Science, August 13, 2004)

http://climatelab.org/@api/deki/files/472/=Wedges_Figure1_8.jpg
 Stabilization Wedges

Billions of Tons
16 16 GtC/y
Carbon Emitted per
Year

”
p
Eight “wedges”
am
= “r
t h
pa
ent
rr
Cu
Goal: In 50 years, same
global emissions as today
8 Historical
emissions
Flat path

1.6

0
1950 2000 2050 2100
Princeton Wedge Game

http://cmi.princeton.edu/images/wedges/Wedges_Figure2_8.jpg
 What is a “Wedge”?
A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero
to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere.

1 GtC/yr

Total = 25 Gigatons carbon

50 years

Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50

years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC.

A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.

 15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories

Energy Efficiency Fossil Fuel-Based

& Conservation Strategies

Stabilization
Stabilization
Triangle

2010 2060 Renewables &

Nuclear Power Biostorage
 Possible
Stabilization
Wedges

http://www.elrst.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/stabilization-wedges.jpg
 Efficiency
Produce today’s electric capacity
with double today’s efficiency
E, T, H / $
Average coal plant efficiency is
32% today
Sectors affected:
E = Electricity
T =Transport
H = Heat
Cost based on scale of $ to $$$
Double the fuel efficiency of the
world’s cars or halve miles traveled

There are about 600 million cars

today, with 2 billion projected for
2055
Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA

Use best efficiency practices in all

residential and commercial
buildings

Replacing all the world’s incandescent

bulbs with CFL’s would provide 1/4 of
one wedge
Fuel Switching

Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants

for an equal number of coal-fired facilities
Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey).

A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal to that

used for all purposes today
E, H / $ Sectors affected:
E = Electricity
T =Transport
H = Heat
Cost based on scale of $ to $$$
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
Implement CCS at:

• 800 GW coal electric plants

or

• 1600 GW natural gas

electric plants or

• 180 coal synfuels plants or

• 10 times today’s capacity

of hydrogen plants Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey

There are currently three storage projects that

each inject 1 million tons of CO2 per year – by 2055
E, T, H / $$ Sectors affected: need 3500.
E = Electricity
T =Transport
H = Heat
Cost based on scale of $ to $$$
Nuclear
Electricity

Triple the world’s nuclear electricity

capacity by 2055

Graphic courtesy of NRC

The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity

is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975-
1990.

E/ $$ Sectors affected:
E = Electricity
T =Transport
H = Heat
Cost based on scale of $ to $$$
Wind Electricity

Install 1 million 2-megawatt

windmills to replace coal-based
electricity,
OR
Use 2 million windmills to produce
hydrogen fuel

Photo courtesy of DOE

A wedge worth of wind electricity will require

increasing current capacity by a factor of 10
E, T, H / $-$$ Sectors affected:
E = Electricity
T =Transport
H = Heat
Cost based on scale of $ to $$$
Solar Electricity
Install 20,000 square kilometers for
dedicated use by 2060

A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 100 times

E / $$$ Sectors affected:

E = Electricity
T =Transport
H = Heat
Cost based on scale of $ to $$$
Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program
Biofuels

Scale up current global ethanol

production by ~12 times

Photo courtesy of NREL

Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area

the size of India with biofuels crops

T, H / $$ Sectors affected:
E = Electricity
T =Transport
H = Heat
Cost based on scale of $ to $$$
Natural Sinks
Eliminate tropical deforestation

OR

Plant new forests over an area the size

of the continental U.S.

OR

Use conservation tillage on all

cropland (1600 Mha)

Conservation tillage is currently

practiced on less than 10% of global
cropland
B/$ Sectors affected:
E = Electricity
T =Transport
H = Heat
Photos courtesy of NREL, SUNY Stonybrook, United Nations FAO
Cost based on scale of $ to $$$
Take Home Messages About Climate Change
• Global climate change is real and it is happening NOW. The
evidence is overwhelming and from many different systems.

• Earth’s average temperature has risen 1.4º F in the last 100 years

• Average temperature is projected to rise another 2º – 11.5º F in the

next 100 years

• More than 7.2ºF (4ºC) is considered catastrophic

• Human activity is largely responsible, primarily through fossil fuel

use, also through deforestation, industry, and agricultural practices

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/basics/#responsible
Take Home Messages About Climate Change
• Climate change is affecting humans and will
continue to do so.

• Some climate change is unavoidable—CO 2

can stay in the atmosphere for nearly 100
years

• We can reduce the impact and amount of

climate change by taking action now

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/basics/#responsible
Take Home Messages About Climate Change
• In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we need to
rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or enhance
natural sinks

• We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to make

large cuts in emissions

• No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of strategies

will need to be used to stay on a path that avoids a CO2 doubling

• Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs