BASIC PROBABILITY

Learning Objectives
In this chapter, you learn:

• Basic probability concepts and definitions

• Conditional probability
 Important Terms

• Probability – the chance that an uncertain event

will occur (always between 0 and 1)
• Event – Each possible outcome of a variable
• Simple Event – an event that can be described by
a single characteristic
• Sample Space – the collection of all possible
events
 Assessing Probability
• There are three approaches to assessing the probability of an
uncertain event:
1. a priori classical probability
X number of ways the event can occur
probabilit y of occurrence  
T total number of elementary outcomes

2. empirical classical probability

number of favorable outcomes observed
probability of occurrence 
total number of outcomes observed

3. subjective probability
an individual judgment or opinion about the probability of occurrence
 Sample Space
The Sample Space is the collection of all
possible events
e.g. All 6 faces of a die:

e.g. All 52 cards of a bridge deck:

 Events

• Simple event
• An outcome from a sample space with one characteristic
• e.g., A red card from a deck of cards
• Complement of an event A (denoted A’)
• All outcomes that are not part of event A
• e.g., All cards that are not diamonds
• Joint event
• Involves two or more characteristics simultaneously
• e.g., An ace that is also red from a deck of cards
 Visualizing Events

• Contingency Tables
Ace Not Ace Total

Black 2 24 26
Red 2 24 26

Total 4 48 52
• Tree Diagrams
Sample
A ce 2 Space
Sample
C ar d
Space
Bl a c k Not an Ace 24
Full Deck
of 52 Cards Ac e
Re d C 2
a rd
Not an
A ce 24
 Visualizing Events
• Venn Diagrams
• Let A = aces
• Let B = red cards
A ∩ B = ace and red

B
A U B = ace or red
 Mutually Exclusive Events
• Mutually exclusive events
• Events that cannot occur together

example:

A = queen of diamonds; B = queen of clubs

• Events A and B are mutually exclusive

 Collectively Exhaustive Events
• Collectively exhaustive events
• One of the events must occur
• The set of events covers the entire sample space

example:
A = aces; B = black cards;
C = diamonds; D = hearts

• Events A, B, C and D are collectively exhaustive (but not mutually

exclusive – an ace may also be a heart)
• Events B, C and D are collectively exhaustive and also mutually exclusive
 Probability

• Probability is the numerical measure

of the likelihood that an event will 1 Certain

occur
• The probability of any event must be
between 0 and 1, inclusively
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 For any event A 0.5

• The sum of the probabilities of all

mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events is 1
P(A)  P(B)  P(C)  1
0 Impossible
If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive
 Computing Joint and
12Marginal Probabilities
Chap 4-

• The probability of a joint event, A and B:

number of outcomes satisfying A and B

P( A and B) 
total number of elementary outcomes

• Computing a marginal (or simple) probability:

P(A)  P(A and B1 )  P(A and B 2 )    P(A and Bk )

• Where B1, B2, …, Bk are k mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive
events
Chap 4-
13
Joint Probability Example

P(Red and Ace)

number of cards that are red and ace 2

 
total number of cards 52

Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
Chap 4-
14
Marginal Probability Example

P(Ace)

2 2 4
 P( Ace and Re d)  P( Ace and Black )   
52 52 52

Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
 Joint Probabilities Using Contingency
15Table
Chap 4-

Event
Event B1 B2
Total
A1 P(A1 and B1) P(A1 and B2) P(A1)

A2 P(A2 and B1) P(A2 and B2) P(A2)

Total P(B1) P(B2) 1

Joint Probabilities Marginal (Simple) Probabilities

Chap 4-
16
General Addition Rule

General Addition
Rule:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P(A and B) = 0, so the rule can be simplified:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

For mutually exclusive events A and
B
Chap 4-
17
General Addition Rule Example

P(Red or Ace) = P(Red) +P(Ace) - P(Red and Ace)

= 26/52 + 4/52 - 2/52 = 28/52

Don’t count
the two red
Color aces twice!
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
• A conditional probability is the probability of one event, given that
another event has occurred:

P(A and B) The conditional

P(A | B)  probability of A given
P(B) that B has occurred

P(A and B) The conditional

P(B | A)  probability of B given
P(A) that A has occurred

Where P(A and B) = joint probability of A and B

P(A) = marginal probability of A
P(B) = marginal probability of B
 Conditional Probability Example

 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air

conditioning (AC) and 40% have a CD player
(CD). 20% of the cars have both.

• What is the probability that a car has a CD player,

given that it has AC ?

i.e., we want to find P(CD | AC)

 Conditional Probability Example
(continued)
 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning
(AC) and 40% have a CD player (CD).
20% of the cars have both.
CD No CD Total

AC 0.2 0.5 0.7

No AC 0.2 0.1 0.3
Total 0.4 0.6 1.0

P(CD and AC) 0.2

P(CD | AC)    0.2857
P(AC) 0.7
 Conditional Probability Example
(continued)
 Given AC, we only consider the top row (70% of the cars). Of these,
20% have a CD player. 20% of 70% is about 28.57%.

CD No CD Total

AC 0.2 0.5 0.7

No AC 0.2 0.1 0.3
Total 0.4 0.6 1.0

P(CD and AC) 0.2

P(CD | AC)    0.2857
P(AC) 0.7
 Using Decision Trees.2
.7 P(AC and CD) = 0.2
Given AC or no
Ha s CD
AC:
0 .7
C)= D oe
P ( A s
h a v e no t . 5 P(AC and CD’) = 0.5
C CD
H as A .7
All
Cars
Do .2
e
hav s not .3
eA D P(AC’ and CD) = 0.2
C P(A C
C’) Ha s
=0
.3
D oe
s
h a v e no t . 1 P(AC’ and CD’) = 0.1
CD
.3
 (continued)
Using Decision Trees.2
C .4 P(CD and AC) = 0.2
Given CD or no
H as A
CD:
0 .4
D )= D oe
P( C s
h a v e no t . 2 P(CD and AC’) = 0.2
D AC
H as C .4
All
Cars
Do .5
e
hav s not .6
eC C P(CD’ and AC) = 0.5
D P(C A
D’) Ha s
=0
.6
D oe
s
h a v e no t . 1 P(CD’ and AC’) = 0.1
AC
.6
a. How will you describe
the given diagram?
b. How many sets are
there? What are their
elements?
c. Is there a common
element/animal in both
sets?
Union And Intersection Of
Sets May Be Represented
Using Venn Diagrams.
•These are diagrams
that make use of
geometric shapes to
show relationships
between shapes
 INTERSECTION OF SETS

• Universal set of Animals:

E = Everything = { Fish, Eels, Platypus,
Penguins, Eagles, Bats }
•We are going to use a Venn diagram to
divide these animals into the following two sets:
“Water Animals” and “Two Legged Animals” .
 INTERSECTION OF SETS
•When we do this, we find that Penguins
belong in
both groups:
E = Everything = { Fish, Eels, Platypus,
Penguins,
•WaterAnimals= { Fish, Eels, Platypus, Penguins }
Eagles, Bats
•TwoLeggedAnimals= }
{ Eagles, Bats, Penguins }
This means that on our Venn diagram, we will need
to have two overlapping circles, so that we can put
penguins inside both circles.
 UNION OF SETS
• The union of two sets is everything
that is contained within the two circles joined
together.
• It is the combined total of the two
sets,
where each item is only listed once.
 UNION OF SETS
•For our Venn Diagram of Two Legged
Animals and
Water Animals, we have:
• { Two Legged Animals } Union { Water
Animals } = {
Fish, Eels, Platypus, Penguins, Eagles,
Bats }
•Union is often written using a big “U”
symbol, or
 DEVELOPMENTAL ACTIVITY
a. Who are the personalities given in
Activity 1 in Set A? in Set B?
b. Who is common in both sets? Why?
c. How will you differentiate union and
intersection of sets?
d. Can you give your own real-life examples
of these sets?
 GUIDED
PRACTICE
Let U= { 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 } A B
A= { 2 ,4 ,6, 7, 8 } 4 2
3

B= {1, 2, 3, 5, 7}
a. Give A∪B and A∩B.
b. Place the elements of these sets in the proper
locations in the given Venn diagram on the right ( some
numbers are already given)
 INDEPENDENT PRACTICE
Given: P= { 1,2,3,4,5,6,}, Q=
{2,4,6,8 }, and R= {1,3,5}
Find:
a. ∪
b. ∪
c. ∩
d. ∩
e. Illustrate ∩ using Venn diagram
 UNION AND INTERSECTION
OF
SETS
The union of two sets are all
the elements from both sets. Thus, the union of
sets A and B, written as ∪ , is the set
of the elements that are members
of A, or members of B ,or members of both A
and B.
 UNION AND INTERSECTION
OF
SETS
The intersection of two sets
are those elements that belong to both sets.
Thus, the intersection of sets A and B , written
as ∩ , is a set of elements that are
members of both A and B.
A. Given sets A and B
SET A SET B
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Determine A ∪ and A ∩
 B. Given Venn diagram;

Find: U
A
1. elements of U B
10
8
6
2. elements of A
2 3
3. elements of B 7
5

4. A ∪ B
4 9
5. A ∩ B 1